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Knoll, Inc. (NYSE:KNL)

Q2 2008 Earnings Call

July 17, 2008 10:00 am ET

Executives

Andrew B. Cogan – Chief Executive Officer & Director

Barry L. McCabe – Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President

Analysts

Budd Bugatch – Raymond James & Associates

Matthew S. McCall – BB&T Capital Markets

Analyst for Michael J. Rehault – JP Morgan

Chris Agnew – Goldman, Sachs & Company

Todd A. Schwartzman – Sidoti & Company, LLC

Operator

Welcome to the Knoll, Inc. second quarter 2008 conference call. (Operator Instructions)The presentation slides accompany the webcast. In addition, this call may offer statements that are forward-looking.

These forward-looking statements are based largely on the company’s expectations and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties certain of which are beyond the company’s control and actual results could differ materially from the forward-looking statements as a result of many factors including the factors and risks identified and described in Knoll’s annual report on Form 10K and in other filings with the Securities & Exchange Commission.

The call today will also include references to non-GAAP financial measures the reconciliation of these measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures are included in the company’s earnings release dated July 17, 2008. Presentation slides accompany the webcast. Now, let me turn the call over to Andrew Cogan, the CEO of Knolls.

Andrew B. Cogan

I hope by now that you have all had a chance to look at the strong results that we reported this morning for the second quarter of 2008. Our strategy of focusing on high design content businesses is driving our results as we celebrate 70 years of design leadership. We grew our sales by 7.5% versus next to no growth for the industry and increased our adjusted earnings per share by 32.4% from $0.37 to $0.49. In fact, this was the highest quarterly adjusted EPS that we have reported since our IPO in 2004.

These results are evidence that our strategy of diversifying our sources of revenue away from a historic dependence on lower margin North American office systems sales and towards an increased focus on higher margin, high design content products like our textiles, leathers and KnollStudio categories is working. Our increasing international focus is also producing better than industry growth and contributing positively to our industry leading operating margins.

For those of you who attended NeoCon, I hope you got the sense that we had and that many of our customers and dealers shared with us that Knoll looked more vibrant and our product breadth was broader. That too is a benefit of our diversified high design content product portfolio. I believe that these results also demonstrate the agility of our management team and the flexibility of our cost structure.

As we headed in to the year we implemented a price increase in February to address the inflationary pressures that we were anticipating. When these pressures increased, we took actions early in Q2 to reduce our fixed costs. As we saw in inflation continue to accelerate in to the back half of the year, we announced the transportation surcharge effective early in Q3 to try and do what we can to mitigate the impact of all of this on our bottom line. While we still expect gross margins to be pressured in the second half of the year, we will be less effective than if we had not acted preemptively.

I want to make a couple of other points on the inflation front. First, because of our mix of businesses, accelerating commodities like steel are less of a problem for us than some others. After all, most of our specialty products do not even use steel. Second, over the past three years we have been affected as much, if not more so, from an inflationary standpoint by the appreciation of the Canadian dollar.

The good news this year is that the Canadian dollar is actually a currency against which the US dollar is strengthening; this helps us. Our results are also benefitting holistically from our prudent approach of managing our free cash flow and balance sheet. In the quarter, we took advantage of our low share price to buy back over 1.1 million shares at an average price of $12.28. This, together with our prior buyback, helped to reduce our shares outstanding by just over 5% from a year ago and 11% from two years ago.

At the same time in Q2 we were also able to reduce our debt and lower our leverage ratio. Interest costs fell as we benefitted from lower borrowing rates and we ended the quarter with over $132 million of liquidity. After taking in to account these actions, we still have about $47 million remaining on our board authorization to apply towards further share repurchases. Looking forward, we see no let up in the inflationary pressures and our macroeconomic concerns. But, with our strong balance sheet, amply liquidity and increasingly diversified product and geographic coverage, we should continue to just fine.

Now, let me turn the call over to Barry to take you through the results in more detail.

Barry L. McCabe

As Andrew stated in his opening comments, we were very pleased with our results when you consider the current economic environment where our industry in North America is experiencing little or no growth and where we are continuing to see increased inflationary pressures across key commodities. As we review our results sales for the second quarter were $292.5 million, an increase of 7.5% over the prior year period reflecting double digit growth in our specialty and international businesses and slightly negative growth in our North American office business. Again, we are pleased that our diversification strategy is allowing us to grow despite the challenges facing the office category.

Backlog for the second quarter was $191 million, a 9.7% increase over prior year. We were encouraged to see client business, mock up activity and orders greater than $1 million the same or ahead of last year. Gross margin for the quarter was 34.6%, a 30 basis points increase from a year ago. The increase was primarily due to mix with higher specialty business sales, price realization, continuous improvement in our factories and global sourcing more than offsetting inflation and negative foreign exchange. We were pleased with our progress in offsetting exchange and inflation but recognized that inflation in particular will be an ongoing challenge.

Operating expenses were $62.6 million or 21.4% of sales, an increase of 90 basis points above last year. Actual spending increased $6.8 million which was primarily the SG&A related to the Edelman Leather acquisition completed in the fourth quarter last year and some incremental spending on gross initiatives and compensation. Restructuring costs were $3.4 million, in line with the guidance given last quarter to cover job eliminations and product pruning. These restructuring costs along with spending reductions are expected to save the company approximately $10 million annually.

Operating income as a percentage of sales was 12% for the quarter. A decrease of 180 basis points from last year and without the restructuring 13.2%, a decrease of 60 basis points from last year. This decrease without restructuring is due primarily to the higher SG&A spending. Interest expense was $4 million, a decrease of $2.5 million from a year ago due to lower rates despite $35 million of higher debt. Other expenses was $64,000 which compares to other expense of $2.7 million for the second quarter of 2007 which included the write off of $1.2 million of the FERC financing fees and foreign exchange losses on currency.

Our tax rate for the quarter was 32.7% compared with 38.4% a year ago. The decrease in the rate is primarily due to a net operating loss tax credit in one of our foreign subsidiaries of $1.4 million. Without this benefit, our rate would have been 37.2%. All this resulted in net income of $20.9 million or 7.1% of sales and an adjusted EPS without restructuring of $0.49, an increase of 32.4% when compared to net income of $17.5 million or 6% of sales and an adjusted EPS of $0.37 a year ago.

Year-to-date net cash provided by operations was $47.1 million of which $54 million was provided from net income plus non-cash amortizations offset by $6.9 million of changes in working capital due primarily to support the higher sales. Capital expenditures were $6.6 million for the first half of 2008. Cash used in financing activities was $36.2 million which included net debt repayments of $5 million, $19.9 million of common stock purchases and $11.4 million of dividend payments. If we look at liquidity, we have $22.7 million in cash at quarter end and another $133.3 million available under our revolver. We are in compliance with all our debt covenants and our leverage ratio is 2.17 to 1.

We are pleased with our strong financial performance. In the quarter we were able to reduce our debt by $10 million while simultaneously taking advantage of our low share price to purchase over $1.1 million shares of our stock. As of July 9th we have acquired approximately 1,648,000 shares this year at an average price of $12.26. After given effect to these purchases, and taking in to account our dividend, we have returned over $30 million to our shareholders this year. We continue to benefit from the new credit facility that we put in place at the end of the second quarter last year. This facility runs through June of 2013 and has not only increased our liquidity but has helped us in accommodation with lower LIBOR rates to reduce our interest expense. As we look forward, we expect full year interest expense to decline from $24 million last year to approximately $15 million this year.

Given concerns about the direction of interest rates, we decided in the second quarter to fix a significant portion of our LIBOR based borrowings. Starting in June, 2009 we put in place LIBOR swaps with an average LIBOR rate of 3.51% from June, 2009 to June, 2010 at an average LIBOR rate of 4.1% from June, 2010 to June, 2011. We will continue to actively manage our balance sheet and cash flows with the same vigor that you have come to expect from us on our operating results.

For the third quarter 2008 we expect sales to be in the $266 to $272 million range, an increase of 5% to 7% over the third quarter of 2007. We expect EPS to be $0.38 to $0.41. We will now take questions.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Budd Bugatch – Raymond James & Associates.

Budd Bugatch – Raymond James & Associates

The tax rate Barry you talked about 37.2% normalized and the $1.4 million NOL. What should we use going forward? Should we use the 37.5%?

Barry L. McCabe

Looking forward I would expect our rate to be somewhere between 37% to 38%.

Budd Bugatch – Raymond James & Associates

Andrew, if you could, could you give us a little more granularity on what you’re seeing in success maybe internationally and specialty, talk a little bit about how you see that unfolding?

Andrew B. Cogan

Well, I think we’ve worked very hard to diversify our revenue stream. If I go back to the start of the decade, something like 80% of our sales and over 85% of our profits were really just purely out of the North America office portion of the business. I think as we sit here today, about a third of our sales now come from our international and specialty businesses and those businesses are almost contributing close to half of our operating profitability. So, it’s been a very important strategy. It’s not a result of any one acquisition or anything like that. It’s a result of something that we’ve been working hard at for five, six, seven years and it’s starting to pay off in both the gross margin mix and in the share of operating profit.

When you look at growth for the quarter, we had very strong growth in the specialty businesses, that led the growth which followed by nice international growth. I’m very pleased to see international growing as a percent of our revenues. It’s still not where it needs to be, we’re working hard to expand it. We think there’s great opportunities for Knoll in more international markets and we’re aggressively investing in those markets. So, I’m very pleased given the whole macroeconomic environment that the way we’ve been diversifying this company over the past again, five, six, seven years seems to be playing out as we had hoped if we were to hit an environment like we’re presently in.

Budd Bugatch – Raymond James & Associates

And the percentage of international business today is approaching what?

Andrew B. Cogan

I think it was 7% at the start of the decade and we’re pushing north of 12% now.

Budd Bugatch – Raymond James & Associates

And you look at North America and obviously the [inaudible] forecast has, if it’s correct, has got some severe implications for the second half of the year which I think calls in to question the validity of that forecast. How do you look at North American business now? What are you seeing and how can investors get a feel of what you’re thinking the rest of this year, maybe even 2009 looks?

Andrew B. Cogan

I couldn’t begin to answer 2009 at this stage, Budd. What I can tell you is that I think the North America office business looks pretty flat right now. Down 1% or 2%, up 1% or 2%, I think that’s the general sense. As we talk to our people and look at the pool of business, there’s still some very good opportunities many of which we’ve already won but that haven’t booked yet that we see for the second half of the year. I think our people think they’re going to have, a flattish year by the time it’s all said and done in the North America office portion of the business. Then, we’ll just have to see where the economy heads as we go in to 2009.

You have to remember we are a later cycle business. We do benefit from a pipeline of activity that continues to move through. The encouraging thing is we are still seeing new clients coming to us with new opportunities so I’m encouraged by that. But, we are in the first year of what could be a challenging environment, we’re prepared to deal with that and I do believe that our diversification will help us get through this in a fundamentally different way than we were impacted by all of this at the start of the decade in the last downturn.

Operator

Our next question comes from Matthew S. McCall – BB&T Capital Markets.

Matthew S. McCall – BB&T Capital Markets

Andrew, just following up on the last question, did you say that the North American folks expect the year to turn out flat? And, I think you just said Q2 is down, Q1 if I remember correctly is down. Does that imply some acceleration or are you saying flat plus or minus and a continuation of the current trends?

Andrew B. Cogan

I think flat plus or minus. I think again, for the full year the core North American office business can be anywhere from up 1% or 2% to down 1% or 2% and I think the most likely scenario based on the way our people are seeing it right now is pretty flat. So, that would mean they see the back half being maybe up 1% or 2% in terms of just the office portion of things.

Matthew S. McCall – BB&T Capital Markets

Are some of those lines Barry spoke about the mockups, the visits, maybe even order trends, or just pipeline activity in general, does that support what they’re saying? So, the corporate numbers you’re looking at, does that support what the sales force is saying?

Andrew B. Cogan

Yes.

Matthew S. McCall – BB&T Capital Markets

Maybe a little bit more granularity within the North American office business, you talk many times about those incremental growth opportunities you have and some of the product categories. Can you talk about the trends within some of the categories, system versus seating versus storage?

Andrew B. Cogan

I think, as you all know, we have strong market share in the systems end of the business. This past NeoCon, we continued to I think, enhance our systems offering very strongly. We’re very, very pleased with how that’s played out both in terms of our higher end systems and our entry level systems. We have a very broad offering in that area. We dramatically expanded our storage offering again at NeoCon. I know those products won’t ship until next year but we got great response to many of the new storage products and storage planning concepts that we showed at NeoCon. Our working case goods is continuing to gain momentum. We introduced an amazing new case goods line in 2007. That’s starting to really track nicely and we’re starting to win some nice incremental private office opportunities in conjunction with our systems end. And then we’re relentlessly focusing on seating and I’m excited about the things we’re working on that should drive our seating business in 2009 and beyond.

Matthew S. McCall – BB&T Capital Markets

I think last call you talked about expectations for your operating margins for the full year in the 13% range and that we’re seeing some inflationary pressures since then. You’ve tried to combat some of those with the transportation surcharge. Can you give us an update of where you can see the full year playing out from an operating margin perspective?

Barry L. McCabe

I think Matt if you look at the inflationary pressures that we’re seeing today, I would say, and again this is looking at there could be upwards of about 100 basis points pressure on margins by the end of the year.

Matthew S. McCall – BB&T Capital Markets

That’s net of your pricing and your transportation surcharge and continued improvement? That’s the net impact?

Barry L. McCabe

That would be the net impact.

Matthew S. McCall – BB&T Capital Markets

So that’s on the gross margins line, it sounds like Q4 could have 100 basis points of pressure, SG&A.

Barry L. McCabe

I would say between both the gross and the operating margins, it’s a combination since most of the inflationary pressure is really on the gross margin line, it’s 100 basis points and that would fall to the operating margin as well.

Matthew S. McCall – BB&T Capital Markets

With SG&A being flat in the back later part of the year?

Barry L. McCabe

Probably flat with last year, yes. And again, we’re looking at SG&A at 21% to 22% of sales.

Matthew S. McCall – BB&T Capital Markets

Then finally, the normal seasonality I think you’ve seen the past few years, Q4 if my memory doesn’t fail me here, that Q4 is a little better than Q2. Do you expect normal seasonal patterns? I know you’ve got limited visibility in to 09 Andrew but what about Q4 in general? Is it normal seasonal patterns look like they’re going to hold.

Andrew B. Cogan

Matt, we’re not here to give full year guidance. I know that’s what you want. What I can tell you is this. I think, as Barry said, we do see over the course of the full year about 100 basis points of operating margin pressure year-over-year primarily driven by the wave of incremental inflation that is just beginning to hit us in Q3 and accelerating in to Q4 in spite of the actions we’ve taken. On the top line, we do expect the North America office business, as I mentioned, to be pretty flat over the course of the full year. If you run all that through, I think it’s entirely possible that Q2 in terms of sales will be a high mark for the year but that’s just a guess at this point.

Matthew S. McCall – BB&T Capital Markets

Then finally, the cash flow uses is still focused on share repurchase activities? Stock is at $15.13 now, or any more plans to reduce debt load?

Barry L. McCabe

Well, we had said that we would look opportunistically at acquisitions, debt pay down, share repurchases depending on our cash flows and what we see out there and we continue to do so.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Michael J. Rehault – JP Morgan.

Analyst for Michael J. Rehault – JP Morgan

I was wondering if you could give some more detailed information on the Q2 sales, like how much was due to pricing and how much was due to volume and how much was due to Edelman Leather?

Andrew B. Cogan

We really don’t give that granularity. What I will say is that there was fine organic growth outside of the Edelman acquisition in the quarter. So, we were very pleased to see continued organic growth in the overall business. And, I will say in terms of the Edelman acquisition and all that, it’s been helpful but I think what’s been helpful is not just the addition of Edelman but a lot of the things that our team in conjunction with their team has been able to do to enhance both the top and bottom line performances of the business.

Analyst for Michael J. Rehault – JP Morgan

Then just following up on the gross margin line, I was wondering if you could help us out with what steel and steel components are as a percentage of your costs. And, how do you go about purchasing those types of materials in terms of if you get them from the spot market or if you have longer term contracts.

Barry L. McCabe

We’ve given that in the past, steel varies. I will say this, and I don’t think people give us the credit, as we’ve implemented our diversification policy, steel, even though its – and we read about it and it’s a major component in our office systems category, when you look at our specialty business, it’s not and you have other now commodities such as leather, textiles and that, that are either equal or almost equal. So, steal is definitely impacting us as well as everyone else but it is not as big of a component of our cost of goods sold as it was eight years ago.

Andrew B. Cogan

And steel clearly is an area where we have the most inflationary pressure as we look at the back half of the year. Our team is doing a nice job on the transportation line, one getting efficiencies in how we ship, in how we deliver, and better route optimizations, I’m very encouraged there. But, the steel inflation I think is unprecedented and it will cause the bulk of the margin headwinds in the back half of the year are steel related. So, while it’s not the number one commodity, it’s a very, very important commodity in terms of our overall spend.

Analyst for Michael J. Rehault – JP Morgan

Do you have any price increases planned for the back half of the year?

Andrew B. Cogan

All I can comment on is that we did a 4% or so increase at the beginning of the year. That seems to be playing through nicely and to deal with some of the incremental pressure we decided to put a transportation surcharge in place and obviously we will have to continue to look at the overall pricing environment as we continue to be hit with unprecedented levels of inflation.

Operator

Our next question comes from Chris Agnew – Goldman, Sachs & Company.

Chris Agnew – Goldman, Sachs & Company

Andrew, could you talk a little bit about the end markets in specialty and the drivers for that business as we’re looking forward?

Andrew B. Cogan

They’re very diversified. The cover everything from hospitality to aviation, private aviation, things like that, healthcare, education, and obviously corporate. Corporate still is well over half of where the specialty products go but they’re diversified and they’re also diversified internationally. And, there’s a part of it that is just our retail distribution channel to our residential and high end consumer. So, it’s pretty broad based in those areas, Chris.

Chris Agnew – Goldman, Sachs & Company

Then moving on to some of your end markets, financials I think has been weak, have you seen any change in 2Q or looking in to 3Q or the back half of the year in terms of is the year-over-year declines accelerating or are you seeing some stabilization?

Andrew B. Cogan

Well clearly parts of our financial services businesses have been hit very hard. Clearly some of the investment banking type people we’ve done business with, that’s down pretty significantly. There are other parts of our financial services which have held up really nicely and we’ll just have to see how that plays out as we move forward. The other thing is we’ve made really good progress in healthcare and education and those are segments we’ve seen good growth in. We’re doing well in energy and targeting growing sectors in that area. We’ve also see, when you look at it geographically we’ve seen good performance out of the west coast and that gets progressively weaker as you move east. So, that’s how I would characterize what’s going on.

Chris Agnew – Goldman, Sachs & Company

Maybe international, my apologizes, did you mention just a rough range of how the international business is growing? And, is there any color Europe versus Middle East for example?

Andrew B. Cogan

Well, I think the strong growth has been really European based. Listen, half the growth is fx, so if you look at the overall growth rate internationally, about half of it has been exchange and the other half has been true organic growth. So, we’re getting nice double digit organic growth internationally. It’s been led by Europe but I’m increasingly encouraged by the ground work we’re doing in the Middle East. Our sales office in Dubai just opened, we’ve gone from having no full-time people there to a strong contingent of full-time people there. We’re working closely with our dealer partners there and the pool of opportunities we’re identifying there continues to grow so that’s all the stuff we want to see happening.

Chris Agnew – Goldman, Sachs & Company

In Europe a lot of people are worried about Europe slowing following the US. Have you seen anything to date?

Andrew B. Cogan

No but, I think that’s highly likely and I think that’s another reason why we are focusing increasingly on areas outside of five main countries in Europe trying to grow our presence in Eastern Europe, in countries like Russia and then aggressively expanding in the Middle East. We believe those are better high opportunity markets for us at the moment then trying to start up in Asia and other parts of the world right now. So, that’s where we’re placing our bet.

Chris Agnew – Goldman, Sachs & Company

Then just on the pricing you put through in February, what price realization are you looking to achieve?

Andrew B. Cogan

Some.

Chris Agnew – Goldman, Sachs & Company

But not all?

Andrew B. Cogan

Not all.

Operator

Our next question comes from Todd A. Schwartzman – Sidoti & Company, LLC.

Todd A. Schwartzman – Sidoti & Company, LLC

Barry, did you mention the percentage of cogs steel represents?

Barry L. McCabe

No, I did not.

Todd A. Schwartzman – Sidoti & Company, LLC

Can I take a stab at that?

Barry L. McCabe

What do you mean take a stab?

Todd A. Schwartzman – Sidoti & Company, LLC

Can I ask you to take a stab at that?

Barry L. McCabe

No.

Todd A. Schwartzman – Sidoti & Company, LLC

What’s the amount of the surcharge plan or already implemented?

Andrew B. Cogan

It was a couple of points. It was small.

Todd A. Schwartzman – Sidoti & Company, LLC

Looking at the New York market, if you were to back out the financial services category, how did the rest of New York office market hold up during Q2 versus the rest of the North American geographies.

Andrew B. Cogan

Todd, I want to be really careful about getting too granular because I think then everybody takes that and runs with it and you lose the forest full of tress when you look at our overall results. But, I’m very exceptionally pleased with the job our New York sales team has done in terms of diversifying the sectors in New York that we’re selling too. They’ve done a terrific job there.

Todd A. Schwartzman – Sidoti & Company, LLC

Looking at specialty, what percent of sales for the quarter were specialty products, ballpark?

Andrew B. Cogan

I think we’ve said in total specialty and international is about a third, we said international was about 12% so that would make specialty the remainder 20% to 21%.

Todd A. Schwartzman – Sidoti & Company, LLC

And it did not do better than that? It wasn’t greater than that for the quarter? Is that a good guesstimate?

Barry L. McCabe

I think that’s a guesstimate.

Todd A. Schwartzman – Sidoti & Company, LLC

As far as Edelman can you give us any additional color on what’s going well there? Anything out perform your expectations?

Andrew B. Cogan

I think we’ve left them alone where it’s made sense to leave them alone and we’ve integrated what’s made sense to integrate and overall it’s working nicely.

Todd A. Schwartzman – Sidoti & Company, LLC

Barry you had mentioned the full year tax rate expectation still around 37% to 38%. That implies no further tax credits in the back half, is that correct?

Barry L. McCabe

That’s correct.

Operator

At this time I will pass the call over to Mr. Andrew Cogan for closing remarks.

Andrew B. Cogan

Well, I want to thank everyone again for joining on the call. Again, we’re really pleased with the strategy of focusing on high design content businesses is driving our results. I think it’s driving a healthier product mix. I think it’s making us significantly less vulnerable to the [inaudible] of this macroeconomic environment and I think the way we’ve overall continued to work the balance sheet and used our free cash flow in a very shareholder friendly way is something we are proud of. We look forward to talking with you all at the end of the third quarter. Take care everybody and thank you for joining in on the call.

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Source: Knoll, Inc. Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript

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