Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets 15 comments
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<< Return to page 1 - Stepping Back
“The week’s not over” may be one of our more popular refrains and cautions but this week it takes on heightened importance given the volatile two-way action. Making snap judgments based on one day within a week can be misleading and bad for your emotional and financial well-being. So, try to stand back a little from the din of market mavens and especially certain TV programs.
It’s also important to remember that it’s not necessarily a good thing that commodity prices are falling sharply. While being positive in potentially reducing future inflation data, it also signifies economic weakness and stress.
Have a great weekend.
Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains long or short positions in MZZ, IWM, TWM, QQQQ, QID, SMN, IEF, PST, TLT, TBT, GLD, DBP, EFA, EFU, EEM, EEV, EWZ, RSX, FXI and FXP.
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This article has 15 comments:
At this point in time we need to overcome the market psychosis reinforced by the psudo economists at a major financial news TV station.
The continuous barrage of distorted perceptions about financial sector only enhances market paranoia. Last year was the time to short that sector.Now we need time to allow corrective measures to address the issues.
Yes,volatility will continue and every rally will be followed by a degree of sell off in the stock market .
In retrospect this will be viewed as a buying opportunity.
At 14,000 (Dow),CNBC had almost a party celebrating the arrival of the bullmarket-the market had crashed.
When the Dow broke 11,000 we were told about arrival of the new bearish trend.
That is another why major rally lies ahead.
Can someone please tell me with some high degree of reliability, whether I am going to make money the rest of the year in the following stocks...(ABB;APC; MON; MTL; POT; RIG)? The variables involved in forecasting seem to me to be so many and so staggering and loaded with such abundant contradiction as well as potential for disaster on a world wide basis...financial and otherwise, it's easy to think that I should run for the nearest gold source and never look back. On the hand, I don't think I can eat gold or put a roof over my head, with stuff that is all that heavy. When and if the mkt gets that bad, an MK 47, body armor, and supply of C rations might be the only tkt. to survival.
Now ,I wil say the following .The recession is defined as two consecutive quarterly declines in the GDP-we are not there. The Treasury ,the FED and the Admiinistration have addressed perceived problems which will take time to work.I suppose additional easing is needed as another round of the fiscal stimulous.While economic deceleration is unnerving ,we are not in a recession.
It is likely that Emerging economies (record leverage) and Europe (high rates)will implode first creating massive inflows into the dollar assets ,further contributing to the U.S recovery.
NBER sez:
"The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. For more information, see the latest announcement on how the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee chooses turning points in the Economy and its latest memo, dated 07/17/03." www.nber.org/cycles.ht...
Don't know about you, but I not buying a new SUV or Ford-150 pick-up this year (or next).
The corn mill machinery manufacturer for whom I do tech writing isn't seeing new orders (domestic or export).
Just had to reduce the rent on a rental despite all those foreclosed, previous home owners forced into the rental market.
DHL likely to close its hub in Wilmington OH (6,000more unemployed).
NASCAR fans still going to the races, yes, but camping and grilling out instead of staying in hotels and eating out.
So a consumer-led recovery not likely.
If I were a foreign investor I likely wait for more of the trillion dollar (or mote) write-downs to find their way out of the financials woodwork. In the meantime, I'm just sitting on my hands for a spell rather jump into a "bargain" U.S. equities.
For Mr. Borenstein: you seem to be implying that what we're going through is some sort of 'average' market event. I'm no economic historian, but I would have thought the confluence of so many adverse economic and financial circumstances is sufficiently unusual and potentially serious to make bottom-calling on the basis of what has happened in the past rather optimistic at this stage. With regard to whether or not the US is in recession, the way inflation is calculated these days there's no reason at all why any government should ever again have to live through the ignominy of presiding over two quarters of negative real growth. Finally, notwithstanding that Dollar bulls have had a good time dumping on Europe this week, with the exception of the property-infected economies in the UK, Spain, and Ireland many of us on this side of the water would rather have our problems than the immense structural morass that currently faces US policy-makers.
Read the last paragraph of the post again before you call everyone else Martians around here.