Second Quarter Homeownership Rate Has Largest Increase in Four Years

The chart above is based on the Census Bureau's latest release on home ownership rates, and shows the following:

1. The howeownership rate fell below 68% in the last quarter of 2007 (67.8%) and first quarter of 2008 (67.8%) for the first time since early 2002, as part of a four-year downward trend since the 69.2% peak level of homeownership in 2004.
2. The .30% increase in homeownship for the second quarter of 2008 to 68.1% was the first quarterly increase in almost two years (since third quarter 2006), and was the largest quarterly increase in four years (since second quarter 2004).

Bottom Line: If this rebound in homeownership rates continues to reverse the four-year downward trend, it could provide further evidence that we are finally experiencing a bottom to the housing market problems, as suggested by Larry Kudlow (The Media Are Missing the Housing Bottom) and Brian Wesbury ("Pace of existing home sales is very close to a bottom," and "Pace of new home sales has either already hit bottom or is getting very close to the bottom").

Comments

[xsuddensam:]

So it hits the bottom. Where's it going, up?

If Larry Kudlow and the be happy don't worry crowd says so, I can't put any faith in it.

2008 Jul 27 05:14 AM

[fatcat:]

You're quoting Wesbury and Kudlow? You catch hell every time you post.I used to feel a little sorry for you...

2008 Jul 27 06:29 AM

[nonsumdignus:]

Looks like it's forming a right shoulder of a classic Head and Shoulders formation. We all know what happens after the right shoulder is formed... Look out below!

2008 Jul 27 09:28 AM

[FWallace:]

suggestions from Larry Kudlow.... come on, give me a break !!!

2008 Jul 27 09:35 AM

[CLH:]

Larry Kudlow is almost always right. Read Perrys comments to meet the losers. (see above) Perry seems to know how to sort out the losing negatives.

Good post Perry keep it up. Pay no attention to those who live in a world devoid of science.

2008 Jul 27 10:13 AM

[notsosmart:]

goldilocks lives in a house.right?

2008 Jul 27 11:10 AM

[Tom Lindmark:]

The author glossed over a small point. If you follow the link to the census bureau site you can see that the 68.1% ownership rate is subject to a sampling error of + or - 0.5%. The site even says that statistically there is no difference between the last quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008. The article's conclusion is bogus.

2008 Jul 27 12:58 PM

[GaryD:]

Are you and Larry Kudlow having an affair? I know that neoconservatives are mostly closet homosexuals, and I have no problem with that, but come on, a little discretion here.

Looking at your chart and using your own methodology, you would have called a housing market bottom in Q1 '05 and Q4 '05 and a top in Q2 '01 and Q4 '02. Great analysis. The fact that you think a 0.3% move on a single data point is meaningful and actionable demonstrates yet again your monumental stupidity. Census data typically has an error of +/-0.5%, so you are looking at noise, doofus. Go blow Larry.

2008 Jul 27 02:01 PM

[user 2lakes:]

The big problem is that there is 11.1 months of supply out there, and the nitwit builders keep building more each month. And besides, does this chart/report take into account that a lot of these owners will be filed against in the coming months? Opps! no longer a homeowner. ;-)

2008 Jul 27 11:04 PM

[secmaven:]

11.1 months of supply and the boomers have not even begun to put their houses on the market yet.

2008 Jul 28 01:05 AM

[Smalltownba...:]

New Home Sales fell in June by .6% in what is historically one to of the strongest sales months of the year. Foreclosures are up 14% from Q1 and 121% year over year from Q2 2007. The inventory of available homes for sale continues to rise while those who do not have to sell in order to relocate or avoid foreclosure are sitting tight. As a mortgage lender 70% of the homes I am finanacing are either short sales or foreclosure sales. Tell me again how that translates into an increase in homeownership.

Are you sure your figures didn't come from the NAR?

2008 Jul 28 08:18 AM