Record Decline in Driving, Record Level of Conservation

The Federal Highway Administration reported that travel during May 2008 on all roads and streets in the nation fell by -3.7% compared to the same month last year. May marks the seventh consecutive month of traffic volume decline compared to the same month in the previous year. Travel YTD through May in 2008 fell by -2.4% compared to 2007.

There was never more than a single monthly decline in traffic volume until 2006, a few examples of two consectutive monthly declines 2006 and early 2007, but never in the history of these data was there ever a period of more than a 2-month consecutive decline until now, and therefore the 7 consecutive monthly decline in miles driven is a record, and represents the most significant adjustment to driving behavior in recent history.

On a moving 12-month total basis, traffic volume in May fell to a three-and-half year low of 2.966 trillion miles, the lowest level since January of 2005 (see chart above), and this measure has fallen in each of the last seven months. Further, the 16 billion mile decrease in May's moving 12-month total was the largest monthly decrease on record, going back to 1983, and marks the most significant moving 12-month decrease in miles driven in at least the last 25 years.

High gas prices are working - consumers are changing their behavior by driving less and conserving gasoline. In fact, high gas prices have probably done more to change behavior and inspire conservation of fossil fuels than all of the Earth Days, and all of the efforts of groups like the Sierra Club, combined? Consumers have "found the religion of environmentalism and conservation" through high gas prices.

Amen, brothers and sisters.

Comments

[NOWHEREMAN:]

oh ho, 3 trillion miles. Lets try to reduce that by another 5-10%. maybe then it will be worth something on a global basis.

2008 Jul 29 09:03 AM

[fireball:]

high gas prices are working? you mean they are killing the little guy if you want to call that working. you mean more people are turning to crime in desperation and stealing a lousy tank of gas. i am fine and can still do as i please. i have a few oil stocks so i benefit by rising prices but i am not arogant enough to say it is working. i see way to many people and small business owners hurting. i see big lay offs at places like ups and more people getting squeezed. at least you end your article appropriately. i mean you sound like one of the new red-green fanatical religious nuts who have witnessed the second coming of algore. of course one should not expect any common sense or mercy from academia. after all you live in the same co2 filled dreamworld as the pundits and socialist party A and socialist party B. it makes me want to go buy one of those high performance gas guzzlers and have some high speed fun. you can bet it will not be red or green. i am a conservationist. i love nature. you sound like another eco-nut waco with socialist utopian dreams. i have gotten my hands dirty to clean where an individual can. have you? perhaps i have misunderstood your article but the wording is poor if that is the case. since you apparently have no clue what is happening out here may you come face to face with some of those decent americans that are being forced into desperate drastic actions and be forced to deal with them. perhaps that will fill the gaps in your education. if you are forced out of self defense to kill one you can simply lay that american on the alter as a sacrifice to your little demigod algore and his father gorbachev. your lack of feeling for the guys who want to work and make a better life sickens me. do you really think algore believes the whining drivel he excretes. follow the money. PAULTAUT i am suprised and disappointed.......... i would rather loose a little money on my oil stocks than see recession or depression as a cure. hey why not just release a bioweapon on us ignorant heathen and decimate the population. then us filthy humans will not be messing up your green goddess. quite a religion you have. what is scary is that it is true. and it is powered by insane unreasonable fanatical zeal.

2008 Jul 29 09:58 AM

[Paul Killinger:]

Thanks for another informative post, Mark.

Unfortunately, the economic downside from our driving fewer miles far outweighs any potential benefits. Millions of American workers are already unemployed as a result, and millions more are awaiting their pink slips.

I have read Schumpeter, Hayek and Friedman, too, so I know all about the economic benefits of CREATIVE destruction to an economy. But the DEMAND destruction we're seeing now in the U.S. is NOT THE SAME THING AT ALL.

ARTIFICIALLY imposing one's political will over an entire economy is but political mischief, and can only come to a BAD END, as we shall surely see. Even worse, the notion we can somehow replace all this productive enterprise by re-employing everyone whose jobs are lost in building solar panels and wind farms is simply a FOOL'S ERRAND at best, and at worst a DECEPTION of historic proportions.

You may wish to take this time to re-read the relevant works of the above named authors and Adam Smith, as well. The ideas of these pro-capitalist thinkers and others throughout the centuries have always proven themselves correct, as we can witness throughout the REST OF THE WORLD TODAY, and will in the end prove themselves here once more, as well.





m

2008 Jul 29 12:17 PM

[Paul Killinger:]

Remarkably, the American public inherently understands this, as well, thank God! That's why 75-80% of us are telling pollsters, in effect, that we don't believe in these new "Green Gods" the Democrats in Congress would have govern our way of life in future years, no matter how much misinformation they advance in this regard.

2008 Jul 29 12:29 PM

[Paul Killinger:]

It would also be helpful if our economic leaders didn't try so hard to be "politically correct." A glance outside your window is proof it is long past time for that.

2008 Jul 29 01:35 PM

[Paul Killinger:]

While it is true that the UAW was in part responsible for MI's long term demise, their hand maidens in management were anxious participants, as well. Shumpeter's prescient "profit is a penalty" axiom attests to that.

The point is that young minds are best served by hearing the WHOLE story. My contention is MI's economic re-birth will be brighter and come more quickly the sooner they learn about the Wealth of Nations, and have the opportunity to apply it.

2008 Jul 29 02:20 PM

[fireball:]

speaking of young minds: yesterday my neighbor was helping me clear out some scrubby trees and brush on my lot. he stopped and asked me what to do about the red green propoganda his daughters were being fed in school. as soon as we finished i went with him and talked for a couple of hours with the girls. bright young minds are easy to clean up. as the older one said she had been being programmed for 10 years and it was undone in 2 hours. my neighbor is a farmer and a great down to earth guy. his terminology for the watermelon movement was much rougher than i described. if you tell the lie, loud enough, often enough, for long enough the masses will come to believe it. the clear light of objective truth destroys that theory so easily.

2008 Jul 29 03:10 PM

[fireball:]

PAUL8756 i told you we have to laugh. it keeps us healthy. so we need to live a long time to undo what is being done when oppotunity arises.

2008 Jul 29 03:13 PM

[Marcus Aure...:]

Is it "working" depends on the goal. If your goal is simply to reduce the consumption of gas/energy consumption then high prices work better than energy squirrel PSA ever will. If your thing is burning hydrocarbons creates anthropegenic global warming then the increase in energy prices is a good thing.

What you note fireball, is something the real advocates of high energy prices are afraid to see. While high energy prices reduce energy consumption those prices reduce our ability to produce and deliver goods to people.

There are very few opponents of low energy prices willing to admit they support the high energy prices and fewer who will own up to the consequences.

The point is hair-brained public service announcements, global concerts, earth-day events, and the like have little or no effect on the consumption of energy while a 33% increase in the price of energy does.

2008 Jul 29 04:19 PM

[Marcus Aure...:]

Creative destruction is going on, it just takes a little more time for it to materialize. I am reading on all sorts of incremental breakthroughs on new ways to obtain fuel (LS9's diesel excreting microbe) and to use energy more efficiently (Michelle Malkin notes a Purdue breakthrough on LED light production).

Oil based energy system did not spring onto the scene full-fledged overnight it evolved into what it is today and evolution is a slow sometimes painful process.

2008 Jul 29 04:23 PM

[kebu77:]

When there is a change in a trend, 12-mo. data will understate the magnitude of the change.

Looking at the actual monthly FHA data, the change in driving behavoir actually begins around 2003. (For May, April and March 2008, you have to go back to 2003 to see lower miles driven.)

While your graph shows 2008 dropping down to the 2005 level, when you look at the individual month data, 2008 has actually dropped down to 2003 levels - - a big change from the multi-decade rising trend.

2008 Jul 30 03:59 PM

[noam:]

No. Its not working. Petrol is not nearly expensive enough to make a difference.
In Europe they pay around $9/gallon. Are there less traffic jams and traffic conjestions?? Of course not. So why should $4/gallon in the US make a difference? In a few weeks US drivers will get over the initial shock of $4 gas and revert to their old driving habits. At least til US gas reaches $9!!

2008 Jul 31 06:35 PM