Seeking Alpha
Long/short equity, insider ownership
Profile| Send Message| ()  

I screened with Open Insider for insider buy transactions filed on September 19. I then checked with Stock Charts if the stocks had bullish Point and Figure counts. From this list I chose the top 5 stocks with insider buying in dollar terms. Here is a look at the top 5 stocks:

1. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) was established in 1969 in Lebanon, Tenn. and operates 615 company-owned locations in 42 states. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store provides a friendly home-away-from-home in its old country stores and restaurants. Guests are cared for like family while relaxing and enjoying real home-style food and shopping that's surprisingly unique, genuinely fun and reminiscent of America's country heritage … all at a fair price. The restaurant serves up delicious, home-style country food such as meatloaf and homemade chicken n' dumplings as well as its made from scratch biscuits using an old family recipe. The authentic old country retail store is fun to shop and offers unique gifts and self-indulgences.


(Click to enlarge)

Insider buys

Sardar Biglari purchased 26,528 shares on September 17-18 and 48,244 shares on July 23-25. Sardar Biglari currently holds 4,091,037 shares of the company. The company has 23.5 million shares outstanding which makes Sardar Biglari a 17.4% owner of Cracker Barrel Old Country Store. Sardar Biglari has purchased 1,803,050 shares since January 2012.

Financials

The company reported the full-year fiscal 2012 (ended August 3, 2012) financial results on September 19 with the following highlights:

Revenue $2.58 billion
Net income $103.1 million
Cash $152.0 million

Outlook

For fiscal 2013, the company expects total revenue of between $2.6 billion and $2.65 billion and earnings per diluted share of between $4.50 and $4.70. The increased revenue projection for fiscal 2013 reflects the expected opening of 12 new Cracker Barrel stores and projected increases in comparable store restaurant and retail sales in a range of 2.0% to 3.0%. Despite expectations for increases in food commodity costs of between 5.0% and 6.0% for the year, the company projects an operating income margin of between 7.3% and 7.5% of revenues. The company expects depreciation expense of between $66 million and $68 million, net interest expense of between $36 million and $38 million, and an effective tax rate of between 32% and 33%. The company expects capital expenditures during fiscal 2013 to be between $90 million and $100 million.

The company expects to report earnings per diluted share for the first quarter of 2013 of between $1.00 and $1.05.

My analysis

The stock has a $102 price target from the Point and Figure chart. Sardar Biglari has been the only insider buying the shares this year. Seven different insiders have been selling the shares this year. The stock is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 14.32. The $102 price target could be reached during the next 12-24 months.

2. Chesapeake Lodging Trust (CHSP) is a self-advised lodging real estate investment trust [REIT] focused on investments primarily in upper-upscale hotels in major business and convention markets and, on a selective basis, premium select-service hotels in urban settings or unique locations in the United States. The Trust owns 14 hotels with an aggregate of 4,465 rooms in six states and the District of Columbia.


(Click to enlarge)

Insider buys

  • George McKenzie purchased 1,500 shares on September 18 pursuant to a public offering and currently controls 9,604 shares of the company. George McKenzie serves as a director of the company.
  • Thomas Natelli purchased 5,000 shares on September 18 pursuant to a public offering and currently controls 106,774 shares of the company. Thomas Natelli serves as a director of the company.

Financials

The company reported the second-quarter financial results on July 31 with the following highlights:

Revenue $67.0 million
Net income $9.0 million
Cash $19.9 million

Outlook

The Trust updated its 2012 outlook on July 31 to incorporate current operating trends and fundamentals, the recent preferred share offering and financing activity, the anticipated acquisition of two hotels in the third quarter 2012, and the acquisition of the previously announced Hyatt Place New York Midtown South in the fourth quarter 2012 (in millions, except per share amounts):

Low High
Pro Forma RevPAR increase over 2011 8.5% 9.5%
Net income $15.8 $18.2
Adjusted Hotel EBITDA $88.9 $91.9
AFFO per diluted share $1.58 $1.66

My analysis

The stock has a $27.5 price target from the Point and Figure chart. There have been six insider buy transactions this year. There has not been any insider selling this year. The stock is trading at a forward P/E of 22.25 and has a book value of $16.03 per share. I believe the $27.5 price target could be reached during the next 12-24 months.

3. Tuesday Morning Corporation (TUES) is a leading closeout retailer of upscale, decorative home accessories, housewares and famous-maker gifts in the United States. The company opened its first store in 1974 and currently operates 852 stores in 43 states. Tuesday Morning is nationally known for bringing its more than 9.0 million loyal customers a unique treasure hunt of high-end, first quality, brand name merchandise - never seconds or irregulars - at prices well below those of department and specialty stores and catalogs.


(Click to enlarge)

Insider buys

William Hunckler purchased 12,900 shares on September 17, 15,528 shares on September 13-14, 4,620 shares on September 11 and 70,588 shares on September 5. William Hunckler currently controls 173,835 shares of the company. William Hunckler serves as a director of the company.

Financials

The company reported the fiscal year 2012 (ending June 30) financial results on August 20 with the following highlights:

Revenue $812.8 million
Net income $3.9 million
Cash $39.7 million

Outlook

Net sales for fiscal 2013 are planned to be in the range of $820 million to $830 million. Comparable store sales are planned to be roughly flat and earnings per diluted share to be in the range of $0.18 to $0.23. For fiscal 2013, capital expenditures are planned to be in the range of $12 to $15 million and total square footage to increase slightly, primarily due to re-locations.

My analysis

The stock has a $13.25 price target from the Point and Figure chart. William Hunckler has been the only insider buying shares this year. There has only been one insider sell transaction this year by Melinda Page. The stock is trading at a forward P/E of 19.75 and has a book value of $6.23 per share. The stock did trade as high as $33 in 2005. I would recommend waiting for a pullback to around $5.5 before buying the stock.

4. FirstMerit Corporation (FMER) is a diversified financial services company headquartered in Akron, Ohio, with assets of $14.6 billion as of June 30, 2012 and 205 banking offices and 213 ATM locations in Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, and Chicago, Illinois areas. FirstMerit provides a complete range of banking and other financial services to consumers and businesses through its core operations. Principal affiliates include: FirstMerit Bank, N.A., FirstMerit Mortgage Corporation, FirstMerit Title Agency and FirstMerit Community Development Corporation.


(Click to enlarge)

Insider buys

Robert Briggs purchased 3,300 shares on September 17 and currently controls 42,651 shares of the company. Robert Briggs serves as a director of the company.

Financials

The company reported the second-quarter financial results on July 24 with the following highlights:

Net income $30.6 million
Book value $14.6 per share
Cash $337.9 million

My analysis

The stock has a $25.5 price target from the Point and Figure chart. There have been two insider buy transactions and six insider sell transactions this year. The stock is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 11.62. The stock could be a good pick from here. I would expect the book value of $14.6 per share to act like a support for the stock.

5. Basic Energy Services (BAS) provides well site services essential to maintaining production from the oil and gas wells within its operating area. The company employs more than 5,700 employees in more than 100 service points throughout the major oil and gas producing regions in Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arkansas, Kansas, and the Rocky Mountain and Appalachian regions.


(Click to enlarge)

Insider buys

James Dagostino purchased 2,000 shares on September 18 and currently holds 39,700 shares of the company. James Dagostino serves as a director of the company.

Financials

The company reported the second-quarter financial results on July 26 with the following highlights:

Revenue $361.5 million
Net income $16.0 million
Cash $104 million

Outlook


(Click to enlarge)

My analysis

The stock has a $20 price target from the Point and Figure chart. There have been 10 insider buy transactions and five insider sell transactions this year. The stock is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 13.80 and has a book value of $9.16 per share. I would recommend buying the shares at the book value of $9.16 per share.

Source: Top 5 Stocks With Insider Buys Filed On September 19 To Consider