So now that Sirius and XM have merged, nothing can stop them from becoming a world-dominating satellite hegemon, right?
Well, maybe one thing: They still don't seem to have a hell of a lot of listenership. At least Sirius doesn't. As Silicon Alley Insider pointed out yesterday, Sirius reported greatly slowed growth in its subscriber acquisitions in the second quarter. Nearly 90 percent of those subscribers it did acquire got their subscriptions as part of a new car purchase. In other words, they're Sirius customers in the same sense that they're anti-lock brakes customers.
And there's reason to think those subscribers aren't using their Sirius tuners as much as you might think -- not to listen to some of its putatively more high-profile programming, at any rate. The company doesn't release public ratings figures for its channels or shows, and I was somewhat shocked to learn, from a Sirius insider, that it didn't even have internal audience data until quite recently -- just a few months ago.
Among other things, the new data showed that Sirius Stars -- the talk channel featuring Barbara Walters, Deepak Chopra, Candace Bushnell and other well-known hosts -- attracted fewer than 30,000 listeners in a week. Assuming that number wasn't an absolute fluke, it seems likely Sirius will see fit to reevaluate its talent roster in the near future with an eye toward who is -- and isn't -- paying the bills.
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PS - Say "hi" to your inside source for me, ok?
Those of you who bought high have my sympathies.
It’s not too late, however. If you sell now, maybe you can take what pennies you have left and buy convertibles or an index fund. At least you’ll stand a chance of making yourselves whole again someday. Good luck, it’s a painful lesson. There are too many other investment opportunities out there with more favorable risk-reward profiles than to commit my funds to the flimsy and unsubstantiated hope that these money-losing companies' stocks will someday spike.
We aren't looking for amazing numbers right now it is going to take a while for the new receivers to hit the market.
With oil going lower over the next couple of months that will have an impact on the new car market.
Things take time only panic is immediate.
I am sure with the 17 months they looked at financing a couple of times,this wasn't a shoot from the hip plan.
As too this article,and I use that term loosly, the beauty of SATRAD is that it appeals to everybody not only to the hit parade..
You're going to see 12 million subscribers at the best possible scenario.
Mel & Howard had a great conversations today. Mel made a statement that supported the stinkaroo Comcast comment above. The interview also outlined the naivity of Congress about business.
Bottom line: The combined company is stable, and subscribers base is climbing!
PS.
Vicar - If you're so negative about the stock, get out. If you're shorting, get out! It's price not going to get much lower. If you're bitter because you're all-in and need the cash now, HA HA!!! Remember the IRS does allow losses to be deferred against gains. Seeing how pessimistic you are, I'm sure you made a mint in the financial funds, by shorting.
This is not a small company. It is now the second largest paid subscription company, how is that small? Get the stick out of your ass and get a clue.
People who were afraid to choose a company can now get the radio they have been waiting for. And the few million die hard sat fans will buy new radios to get the duo programing.
Not to mention that they are saving 400 million a month now and at least 1-2 million will bump their subscriptions up 4 dollars to get the duo programing. That amounts to another 4-8 million dollars in increased venue A MONTH or 48-96 million dollars a YEAR. This is by no feat a small number.
+500 million in the pocket of the company will allow them to pay down debt and increase their stock value attracting new investors. HOW ABOUT WAITING A MONTH OR TWO TO GIVE YOUR RATS ASS COMMENTS ON THE ISSUE.
i only found this horrible article in a stock trading page. But it seems you have about........50 readers. Grats on your "success"
the fact that they could get someone to sell them debt speaks volumes. you think any old business is having money handed to it, even at these rates?
btw, you know what rate mel got on the debt he took out when he started infiniti? take a guess...ah forget it, i'll let you in...it was 21%.
when you put it in context it's not that big a deal...sure, would you have LOVED for it to be cheaper? who wouldn't...but when faced with NOT finalizing the merge because you couldn't even find bookmaker's rates, then i'd take this any day & twice on sundays.
the size of this subscriber base and the very low churn rates speak volumes about the potential of the business...now you wipe out duplicative costs, play hardball at the negotiating table with the talent/content owners, continue to drive automotive penetration rates higher and drill down on marketing this new tiered pricing to historical fence sitters and you're talking about a much improved business model, no?
Just read your Bio. Interesting.... But, Maybe you should stick to pumps and purses!!!!
According to Mel on CNBC this morning there's only one subscription service with more than 18 million people today and that's comcast. He also said there is only one radio company with more listeners today and that would be clear channel
Each year, just based on the OEM auto channel alone they'll add about 2 million subs a year each paying roughly $120. That's an additional 1/4 billion of growth per year.
Right now, based on the current 18,000,000 subs they bring in over 2 billion a year and this doesn't factor in any of the growth from the following:
1)
Look for a Music library from the combined entity that dwarfs the itunes selections with minimal additional royalty arrangements. Look for high end tiers that will include 2 or 3 free downloads / month with your subscription. Library will be open to anybody for $.99 / song.
2)
Look for advertising revenues to bump up significantly given the 20 million audience and rising. Also look for 100% penetration, sooner rather than later, as OEM installs increase across the board.
3)
Watch for a clear strategy involving branding and a huge retail push across new hardware for the upcoming holiday season.
4)
This service will soon be re-invigorated on the desktop with new Operating System software.
OEM loaded this software will enhance the capture and delivery of streaming across devices such as the iphone and the new handsets from Nokia and Samsung, extending it's reach over multiple platforms.
5)
Look for this desktop software to include a Pandora like option, relative to the new library, that will be delivered via a streaming format. Structure will either be advertiser sponsored or subscription based.
6)
Be ready for Sirius to challenge Clear Channel, over time, relative to concert promotion and on demand broadcast of concerts nationwide. Both live and recorded. Look for them to include and share revenues with the artists regarding downloads of entire venues.
7)
Watch for expanded video offerings and GPS inclusion in new car installs.
8)
Look for expansion in Western Europe beginning with Britain in 2010 / 2011
IT IS A CASH COW THAT IS ABOUT TO CUT IT'S OPERATING EXPENSE BY JUST UNDER 1/3. IT HAS HUGE AVENUES FOR GROWTH BEYOND THE ALMOST GUARANTEED 10% / YEAR. EACH SUBSCRIBER FLOWS ALMOST COMPLETELY TO THE BOTTOM LINE GIVEN THE NOMINAL COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH HOOKING THEM UP AND DISTRIBUTING THE NETWORK TO A NEW CLIENT. THIS INCREMENTAL REVENUE WILL JUST PILE UP.
IF THERE IS ONE GROWTH STORY LEFT YOU ARE STARING IT RIGHT IN THE FACE! AN ABSOLUTE 10 BAGGER. ESPECIALLY BECAUSE EVERYBODY CURRENTLY DOUBTS IT.
END OF STORY.
Once I recorded five hours of their "adult contemporary," only to get five Elton John songs, five Billy Joel, four Celine Dion, three Hootie and the Blowfish. . . . you get the idea. Of 120 songs, 85 were white males or white male-led groups, 30 were by women, and 5 were African-American. I emailed the program manager for that station to ask about the disparity (as I've grown up I've heard tons of A-A artists), and he suggested their Urban station. Just another clueless wonder in the entertainment world.
Back on topic, I think 18.5M is only the beginning. The secondary market is going to be huge. There is a large portion of the population that never has and never will buy a new car, and as more OEM installs move to second and third owners, that is a new sub opportunity that costs SIRI nothing. They should consider at some point offering a three-month trial for any first-time subscriber who reactivates a unit. Those are cheap sub adds.
Satrad: Great idea, bad investment. By diluting the common shareholders by 17% this week, management sent a powerful signal that it's writing off the common shareholders so it can keep the bondholders watered and fed. That's the plan, guys. Why would you want to own the common with such a small chance for only modest upside, when you can get paid 6% to hold the convertibles? Professional portfolio managers won't touch this stock with other peoples' money. Why in the world would you buy it with your own hard-earned dollars?
There's a reason why individual investors are money-losing one-trick ponies. Like those who perished on the Titanic, they reassure themselves that everything will be okay even as the water sloshes under the door, because it's easier to fantasize about victory than to admit the reality of real, money-losing defeat. I feel sorry for all of you. Oh, have a good weekend.
"Professional portfolio managers won't touch this stock with other peoples' money. Why in the world would you buy it with your own hard-earned dollars?"
And we all know how well all those professional money managers do.
Watch them drive another hedge fund into bankcruptcy.
Yeh they know what side is up.
I make a living taking the other side of their sad trades.
With all their kings horses and all their kings men, oh vicar of viceroy, they can't even beat one man with one computer and a copy of barrons.
Let me post this again for you:
There's only one subscription media service with more than 18 million people today and that's comcast (from Mel's lips). There is only one radio company with more combined listeners today and that would be clear channel
Each year, just based on the OEM auto channel alone they'll add about 2 million subs each paying roughly $120. That's an additional 1/4 billion of growth per year.
Right now, based on the current 18,000,000 subs they bring in over 2 billion a year and this doesn't factor in any of the growth from the following:
1)
Look for a Music library from the combined entity that dwarfs the itunes selections with minimal additional royalty arrangements. Look for high end tiers that will include 2 or 3 free downloads / month with your subscription. Library will be open to anybody for $.99 / song.
2)
Look for advertising revenues to bump up significantly given the 20 million audience and rising. Also look for 100% penetration, sooner rather than later, as OEM installs increase across the board.
3)
Watch for a clear strategy involving branding and a huge retail push across new hardware for the upcoming holiday season.
4)
This service will soon be re-invigorated on the desktop with new Operating System software.
OEM loaded this software will enhance the capture and delivery of streaming across devices such as the iphone and the new handsets from Nokia and Samsung, extending it's reach over multiple platforms.
5)
Look for this desktop software to include a Pandora like option, relative to the new library, that will be delivered via a streaming format. Structure will either be advertiser sponsored or subscription based.
6)
Be ready for Sirius to challenge Clear Channel, over time, relative to concert promotion and on demand broadcast of concerts nationwide. Both live and recorded. Look for them to include and share revenues with the artists regarding downloads of entire venues.
7)
Watch for expanded video offerings and GPS inclusion in new car installs.
8)
Look for expansion in Western Europe beginning with Britain in 2010 / 2011
IT IS A CASH COW THAT IS ABOUT TO CUT IT'S OPERATING EXPENSE BY JUST UNDER 1/3. IT HAS HUGE AVENUES FOR GROWTH BEYOND THE ALMOST GUARANTEED 10% / YEAR. EACH SUBSCRIBER FLOWS ALMOST COMPLETELY TO THE BOTTOM LINE GIVEN THE NOMINAL COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH HOOKING THEM UP AND DISTRIBUTING THE NETWORK TO A NEW CLIENT. THIS INCREMENTAL REVENUE WILL JUST PILE UP.
IF THERE IS ONE GROWTH STORY LEFT YOU ARE STARING IT RIGHT IN THE FACE! AN ABSOLUTE 10 BAGGER. ESPECIALLY BECAUSE EVERYBODY CURRENTLY DOUBTS IT.
Another bright spot for the company was that its second-quarter net loss narrowed to $83.9 million, or 6 cents a share, from a shortfall of $134.1 million, or 9 cents a share, a year earlier, slightly better than analysts’ forecasts of 7 cents a share.
At the same time subscriber acquisition costs fell 23.0%, to $81.4 million, down from $105.7 million for the second quarter of 2007."
Mr. Bercovici, don't you think that terrestrial radio would wet themselves for a $56M increase in advertising revenues in a single quarter? After all, that's the equivalent metric in an industry that's basically devolved into an advertising delivery venue.
I must confess that I'm a subscriber of XM and have been for over 3 years now. It is today what terrestrial radio once was; a purveyor of quality entertainment. Face it, Sirius XM will soon become the HBO of radio. As long as it continues to deliver quality radio without 27 minutes per hour of commercials, I'll continue to shell out to subscribe to it. Want to buy a car? Want to buy a mattress? Want to buy insurance, male enhancement products, questionable investments? Then terrestrial radio is for you, Jeff!
And, Mr. Blah, Blah, Esq.: I'd LOVE for Mark Twain to come back from the dead to school me on his quotations (massaged, as they were, intentionally, but still without attribution - my bad!). I can think of few other dead scholars with whom I'd rather have such a discussion!