A lot of investors are looking for a place to get in on Amazon.com (AMZN), but have stepped away because the price makes no sense.
We like it because revenues are doubling every two years, because it's revolutionizing retailing, and because it dominates the public cloud. We hate it because it makes almost no money. It shot up after its last quarterly report despite net income of $7 million on sales of $12.834 billion.
But with the latest evidence of a full-blown retailer revolt against its Kindle Fire, with Wal-Mart (WMT) dropping it because it could let customers compare prices directly, that opportunity may be coming.
It could be noise, but the chart patterns of Wal-Mart and Amazon may be diverging. Over the last week, Wal-Mart is up, Amazon down. So far this year Wal-Mart is up 25%, plus you get that 40-cent/quarter dividend. Sure, $4 billion in profits on $114 billion in sales is not exactly fat city, but it is a profit that sustains the dividend. Revenue growth is slower, but there are, at least, operating margins to be had. You'll pay just 15.8 times earnings for Wal-Mart, vs. something in the 300 range for Amazon.
Despite all this, Cantor Fitzgerald is in with a buy on Amazon, expecting a bid of $300. And it's the bearish sentiment that may be pushing the stock higher, with puts on Amazon outpacing calls 1.44 to 1.
Love it or hate it, but there's a bid under Amazon, even at current prices. If you're looking for an entry point today you're arguing over pennies, with the shares still less than 1% from their all-time high.
So what's a fair price for Amazon today? Where would you buy in? My price is $230, but I don't know if we'll ever see it again. What do you think?