Lousy Economic Readings

This morning's economic reports were pretty much lousy across the board.  In addition to a weaker than expected preliminary read on Q2 GDP (1.9% vs 2.3% expectation), initial jobless claims also showed a troubling rise.  For the week, initial jobless claims rose to 448K.  As shown in the chart below, there have been very few readings in initial jobless claims that were this high or higher where there wasn't a recession (gray periods).

In addition to the weak economic reports for the current period, this morning's GDP release also showed that Q4 GDP was revised lower from positive 0.6% down to negative 0.2%.  Given the revision from positive to negative territory, the announcement from the NBER that the US is in a recession probably isn't too far off.

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Comments

[MarvinMBA:]

No surprises here. The country is in deep ssst until we get a new focus. The focus that will make things happen will be source of cheap and abundant energy...the politicians have to get on this real fast before we really bite the dust...MarvinMBA

2008 Jul 31 10:43 AM

[MarvinMBA:]

The value of political leadership is to be able to discriminate betwee "Threats and Opportunities". So far we have failed miserably and thats why we have 15 years of hard work ahead before we see the light of day in this economy. Things that the administration identified 7 years ago should have been done, but I suppose the name of the game is to get all you can and let the next guy worry about it. This time the damage done was enough to tip the scale of a early recovery so the American Public is going to pay a big price for electing this administration.

2008 Jul 31 10:48 AM

[Jason Rines...:]

Which part, the 23% approval executive branch, the 9% legislative branch or the 58% approval judicial branch?

2008 Jul 31 03:37 PM