India's Sensex Likely To Trade in 11-13K Range Through 2008

Indian market risks look weighted on the downside.

1Q09 earnings look generally disappointing. Looks like FY09 earnings growth could end up close to 10%, or definitely less than 15%. Which means forward PE could trend down to around the historical low of 11x. So where does the market go?



This means we are looking at the pessimistic scenario in the above table (from Mar'08 post). Or a median Sensex value is around 11,500. My guess there is a good chance the Sensex could trade between 11,000 to 13,000 for a large part of rest of the year.

The inflation genie, once released, is very hard to control.

Comments

[Market Insight:]

However, the SENSEX is already over 14,000

2008 Jul 31 03:13 PM

[affinor:]

I think it only goes on to show that july sell off was the bottom for the US markets. Emerging economies have only been amplifying the US sentiment. Sensex over 15000 during intraday trade today.

2008 Sep 08 04:05 AM

[affinor:]

Just wanted to comeback and compliment the author. His analysis was very simple, yet much more accurate than anything I heard.

2008 Oct 01 05:24 AM