Sirius XM's Long Road 140 comments
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For all the discouraged, disillusioned and frustrated common stock holders of Sirius XM (SIRI) who are now wringing their hands with worry wondering what happens from here, well, it is really anyone's guess. And I'm guessing with you.
After the sale of discounted shares at $1.50 the stock fell so far below the 21 day moving average that it needs a helicopter to get it up. However, it would appear that a support level has been reached and some stabilization may be coming. Let's review some of the pro's and cons of the merger.
Cons:
- The post debt and stock issuance has slammed the stock price. This is going to take awhile to heal and as long as the stock price is below $ 5.00, there will be little institutional investing.
- The 18 month delay burned a lot of potential retail sales due to the uncertainty of which company, if any, would survive without a merger.
- The 18 month delay erased the possibility for 2009 Auto's to come with universal receivers. Now consumers have to wait until the 2010 models roll out.
- The 18 Month delay has helped the likes of IPOD and Internet Radio gain much ground.
Pros:
- SIRI XM now owns 100% of the auto market. Huge, Huge factor. Yes the auto market is sluggish but as always, there will be a turn around cycle.
- Costs to acquire content and subscribers are no longer a competition issue.
- Potential profit time line has quickened drastically.
- Potential advertising revenue is streamlined.
First I would like to say that as a consumer, I love the content. My entire front radio panel is nothing but financial and news channels and I actually look forward to my AM and PM commute.
But From an investment standpoint I am concerned about the ability of SIRI to emerge from the financial beating it has taken. Not to mention the competition it will face from Internet radio receivers, which Motorola (MOT) is currently working on right now. The potential there for content is endless. But content is king, so long as SIRI keeps it teathered to them.
It really boils down to a few things that will help Sirius XM to go to the next level. Adding more, dare I say it, advertising to the channel stream to help offset the three year price freeze. Ensuring the exclusivity of content when Internet radio becomes a real factor is a must. And most importantly, the auto market itself needs a comeback.
2009 should be an interesting year. Here's hoping Citigroup is correct in its analysis.
Disclosure: Long SIRI
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This article has 140 comments:
I notice that the radio shows that Sirius XM programs that are direct from cable or AM band all have gaps of time because they need to run paid commercials. When this happens, Sirius XM makes non-paid announcements to fill in those minutes. For example, I listen to CNBC (127) and Fox Business News (128) channels. These two programs regularly run their own paid commercials. Sirius uses this time to make non-paid announcements about their own program schedules. Since these gaps of time must be filled, why not offer commercial advertising time for which payment will be made. Sirius XM could still boast that they offer non commercial music programming and that a certain percentage of their programming is commercial free.
They need a space shutle to get this stock back to normal.
Also, now that the merger is complete, the company can begin advertising campaigns and really focus on moving forward rather than being stuck in limbo as they were for the past 18 months.
Why no one talking about the potential gain if they advertize for the Back Seat TV channels for kids and Movies while on the road.
Any SUV parents would love not to hear "Are we there yet"
I can already get internet radio on my iPhone anywhere I go. Chrysler will have internet in their cars next year ( www.bit-tech.net/news/... ), others will follow by 2010.
It's not much of a leap from there.... perhaps it is for you.
If "next year" is a stretch, the major point is that internet radio will certainly be up and running well before the latest $800mil bonds (which they are paying 16% interest on) are even close to maturity....
may I add that those internet radio competitors will have tiny barriers to entry, and approx zero debt - at least compared to XM's $3.5 bil.... XM will tread water for a few years, then die by margin compression and debt..
Sirius XM will take off bigtime once they get more specifics out to subs and more importantly - take back retail!!
We need new, exciting receivers and portables to get Sat Rad hip again.
I have unlimited data with AT&T. so nothing more than my - whatever it is - $60-80/mo for full phone service and all.
More to the point - look ahead a short time in th future - the [unit of data]/[unit of cost] ratio is moving in one direction. and at an exponential rate. Take yourself back just 2 years and look at it vs now... another example is that the internet over 2G is faster than it was over dsl 5 years ago...
XM is not taking part in data's rapid price decline / capacity rise because they paid a fixed rate for it way back when they built their satellite networks -- they are paying today, and will so in the future, until they die, what it cost to build and send satellite signals over half a decade ago. (nearly 10 years ago?)
If for some reason the cost of IR is at all prohibitive, or even a factor at all, at a moment in time, you can bet your house it won't be at all a short time later...
Without $3.5 bil in debt (plus another $500mil in loans) they may have time to turn it around before internet radio gains traction... but that's not the case. In addition to the 16% int rate on the $880mil just issued, they're even paying 7% on the $550mil convertibles!! Unheard of. If those ever convert you'll have more dilution, btw... enjoy that.
So why would I opt for internet radio in the car. Any decent content would have to be subscriber based, or heavily advertiser sponsored.
So where is the real competition from that? Everybody prints this like they think internet radio is going to be able to offer everything and anything and they can do it for free.
Will never happen. So what's their competitve business model?
And it's guaranteed to cut in and out in temrs of reception. Internet nationwide mobile is 4 solid years away.
So put this away Gino.
Now as to the financing were do you get your figures from I will give a "homer985" explanation (for those that know homer enough said):
XM had about $1.5 billion in puttable debt — which means, if XM changes control, the debt holder could force the company to buy back the debt. So XM had to refinance almost all of their debt…
Incedentally, Karmazin had nothing to do with the refinancing, as the companies had to sign confidentiality agreements to keep each others “business” and “finances” away from each other until after the merger is consumated. So while Mel was probably aware of what XM was doing — he was not the facilitator, as that would be against the law.
First, XM offered an increase in the interest coupon on their $400 million in 1.75% convertible notes that mature in December 2009 — up to 10%. Those holders agreed, so XM changed the indenture on these notes.
—–
Second, XM offered to repurchase $400 million of their $600 million in 9.75% Senior Notes with cash… and issue a “new” exchange note for the final $200 million, which would have an identical coupon of 9.75%.
To come up with the $400 million in cash, XM did a new debt offering. There was one stipulation — and that was, if this new note offering exceeded the $400 million, then every dollar higher had to be used to repurchase the remaining 9.75% notes. We since learned that this debt offering went really well — and was “oversold” all the way up to $700 million. So XM had to use $600 million of it to buy back all of the $600 million in 9.75% Senior Notes. The problem here was that the coupon on these was run up to 13%… ouch. But these are tough times… so instead of $600 million at 9.75%, they now have $700 million at 13%.
There was no interest rate at 15% or 16%. That was a misunderstanding by many who mistook the discussion of the Yield to Mature, as the interest rate. The YTM will almost always be higher than the interest rate. In fact, the new Senior notes above have a coupon of 13% and a YTM of 16%.
—–
Third, XM put together their final piece of refinancing — by issuing $550 million worth of new exchangeable notes (aka, convertible notes). Problem here, is that most buyers of convertible notes are Hedge Funds — who short the common stock agains the purchase of the convertible debt, in an arbitrage investment play… but Sirius is on the REG SHO list and has no shares available to short. So XM got Sirius involved, to “lend out” up to $440 million worth of their shares to the Hedge Funds, so that they can short the common against their Debt purchase. Without Sirius lending out these shares, the interest in buying this debt would drop greatly — and cause XM to lower the conversion price and increase the interest rate offer on them.
So today we learn that they priced the conversion price of the convertible debt at $1.875/share; and priced the offering price of the loaned out shares to be sold at $1.50. This combination allowed XM to get an interest rate of 7% on this new $550 million in debt.
This $550 million will be combined with the remaining $100 million from the other debt placement — and used to buy back the $200 million in Floating Rate debt; and $310 million that is owed on the Transponders of XM-4, which were sold last year in the leaseback agreement.
This leaves XM with $140 million remaining — which I believe XM is using to replenish the $120 million in cash that XM used to deposit in their MLB escrow account.
All money raised in these two offerings has now been used to refinance/buy back older debt.
I think that puts that in a more clear position. Granted 13% is not great but it is not bad to get a merger that will save them 400 million at least in the first year. The difference between the interest rates before now will cost them about 140 million a year. Thats 260 million savings at a minimum. As I said before we already know of where they are going to save 60 million a year. Mel has already said that they are not going to launch another satellite after the 2009 launch till 2015 that is 5 years from the original 2010 date for the very next launch after the 2009 one.
The Uconnect system will allow for Internet connectivity and movie playback - but only while stopped.
Well I know that it is a "Long Leap" for me because it currently doesn't exist. An your Iphone was free, right? Keep talking about debt considerations and avoid the original conversation about internet radio. The fact of the matter is when internet radio get into the auto, if ever without a subscription, Sirius XM will own all of the Exclusive content. So dream on.
By the time it gets in the car, Sirius XM will be a "cash cow". When their 2013 & 2014 debt is due it will be paid for. We are talking 1.35 Billion over those two years.
right - no interest rate at 16%, it was at 13%. I get 16% b/c they issued ~$800mil in par value, that they are paying 13% on. But they sold that debt at $.8993 cents on the dollar, and have to pay back the full dollar in 2013. So, real figures: $778mil par amt x .8993 price = $700mil raised. Their interest cost is 13%/yr on the $778mil par amount, plus the $78mil difference in the amount raised and the amount to be paid back in 2013. In all, a 16% cost per year on the $700mil borrowed.
Some of you make good points. I was a "merger bull" and a Sirius bull going back several years. So some of your arguments are very familiar to me. Then over the winter I changed my mind.
I don't think that XM will be obsolete in a few years - I do think that they won't be the only game around in a few years. and that may be enough.
In sum, the major difference is that I believe time is not on XM's side. I believe they will see pricing pressure from competition before they dig themselves out, and it will all spiral from there... Others seem to think the pricing pressure/comp is way down the line, and by that time they'll be a "cash cow" with a solid balance sheet.
Good talk fellas (and ladies).
siriusxm will work the stock up by the holidays. All Siriusxm have to do is get Mel to pitch a buyback with the saving of the two this will drive the stock back up. to $2.50-3.00 range...........no reverse split!!! good quarter and growth will make the stock grow. buy back is the answer or just the talk about it being undervalved with the maybe of a buy back will sent the stock up. it's hard to but say the course......
As to, why do I write on this site is simple. I have a vested interest in this stock (Something I would not have if I did not believe in the concept and business.). The thing that amazes me, is people that are here that dont have a normal invested interest in it. I would not even mind short sellers being here, saying some of the things that you guys do. But here is some common sense for you. I know people like you, VicDave, Oricle and many others, are not short sellers. Simple fact, as I have said before any normal person that is shorting this stock in the hopes of doing it for the normal short purposes (which is they want the stock to go down) would have covered by now, the risk/reward does not make it worth it at this price. So the question is why are you still here? I will say, I have never seen a stock hold so many peoples interest even as they say they have no investment in it. To be honest it makes no sense therefore, I cant make heads or tails of it. Unless you people are terrestrial investors, that are pissed that satellite is the reason your investment is going down and will continue to do so.
jswede, time will only tell.....good luck yourself
Do any of you people know what convertibles are and how they work? They've become the only way to invest in this company profitably. The common has no hope now.
Yes Mr Jimmbooo, what did you say 2 days ago -- the stock is $2 lottery ticket.
Jim Cramer must be the last Comedian standing
Two, Right now the combined company brings in 2 billion a year.
They add a minimum 1/4 billion each year at the current OEM penetration rate. They just cut their operating costs by just under 1/3.
At the current market cap they are trading at less than 1 time revenue.
And many of you make it sound like they have to pay the entire debt outstanding in one fell swoop or by next year or something.
All they have to do is control debt service which is not a problem even at the current run rate.
Now I want you to consider all of these additional facts:
1)
Look for a Music library from the combined entity that dwarfs the itunes selections with minimal additional royalty arrangements. Look for high end tiers that will include 2 or 3 free downloads / month with your subscription. Library will be open to anybody for $.99 / song.
2)
Look for advertising revenues to bump up significantly given the 20 million audience and rising. Also look for 100% penetration, sooner rather than later, as OEM installs increase across the board.
3)
Watch for a clear strategy involving branding and a huge retail push across new hardware for the upcoming holiday season.
4)
This service will soon be re-invigorated on the desktop with new Operating System software.
OEM loaded this software will enhance the capture and delivery of streaming across devices such as the iphone and the new handsets from Nokia and Samsung, extending it's reach over multiple platforms.
5)
Look for this desktop software to include a Pandora like option, relative to the new library, that will be delivered via a streaming format. Structure will either be advertiser sponsored or subscription based.
6)
Be ready for Sirius to challenge Clear Channel, over time, relative to concert promotion and on demand broadcast of concerts nationwide. Both live and recorded. Look for them to include and share revenues with the artists regarding downloads of entire venues.
7)
Watch for expanded video offerings and GPS inclusion in new car installs.
8)
Look for expansion in Western Europe beginning with Britain in 2010 / 2011
If only half of these materialize it's still a monster future.
NO BRAINER!
'nough said.
Satrad: Great idea, bad investment. By diluting the common shareholders by 17% this week, management sent a powerful signal that it's writing off the common shareholders so it can keep the bondholders watered and fed. That's the plan, guys. Why would you want to own the common with such a small chance for only modest upside, when you can get paid 6% to hold the convertibles? Professional portfolio managers won't touch this stock with other peoples' money. Why in the world would you buy it with your own hard-earned dollars?
There's a reason why individual investors are money-losing one-trick ponies. Like those who perished on the Titanic, they reassure themselves that everything will be okay even as the water sloshes under the door, because it's easier to fantasize about victory than to admit the reality of real, money-losing defeat. I feel sorry for all of you. Oh, have a good weekend.
i honestly do not thnk it can go very lower i would say it will get to 1.35 right before thursdays conference call and depending on that call it will probably level back to about 1.60 but there is no immediate gain this stock is now for long investors only
In fact, if someone is into video editing, I think a funny youtube clip would be the two somehow edited together.
And for those who say that Cramer doesn't affect the stock - this is a speculative stock. Like presidential elections, the single stockholder/voter holds little control over the strock price/election result, but it is how they flock that determines the outcome. And, Cramer and people like him affect these how the masses flock.
I wonder how much of the price drop can be attributed to the hoopla about a reverse split - when the whole thing was just a spin of a very politician-like answer by Mel Karmazin about the possibility.
We need to stop thinking guys because more we think more the stock is going lower and lower.... $1.46 after hours something to think about with a Volume: 139,365,914.
I decided to add also my thoughts about this stock is going to be under a dollar within next couple of weeks, then Mel going to come out and reverse split the crap out of it soemthing like 1 to every 100 of your shares and you are going to see your dream shathered in front of you. Because short seller will go after it again and again to get richer and richer.
Well that is my thinking.
Talk, Music, Sports, Home Improvement, Politics, Foreign Affairs, Specialty Minority Programming, Navigation, Weather, Emergency Broadcast (FEMA), Video in the Back Seat, Marine, Trucking, Aerospace, all in one place, anywhere, anytime for less than the cost of a couple cups of Star Bucks and a Danish.
I've never posted b4 but figured I'd be honest and say that I think that sirius xm has a chance and they better cause im not a savvy investor by any means but i bought back when the stern announcement was rumored and held like an idiot instead of selling for maybe a $2,000.00 profit...then bought more for the merger
now i need them to succeed and get to at least $2.72/share just to break even...yes i learned my lesson but still I believe that of all people Mel can turn things around and I really think he has many ideas up his sleeve and things will be getting better soon...I hope
cos1000, What have I said before about these retards that cant get enough of this stock they own none and come here. I think it is great that the stock can hold these people transfixed like this. It reminds me of people that would gather to watch me play roulette. They always joined in, in the end.
As for the downturn to everyone. AS I said before I think it ends Monday/Tuesday morning. then stabilizes then starts its way up. Once again common sense, all the shares loaned out are done by that time and the biggy once again the margin/house calls that were created from the XMSR transfer to SIRI. My god I said it before the last time SIRI went under 2. Dont people put 2 and 2 together. It just happened again with the transfer of XMSR (they have between 2 and 5 days to cover or they are forced to sell).
I still think there is going to be a hard 6 months until A.) the interoperable radios come out, and B.) the cost of the merger are taken out. I dont think the net sub numbers are going to be that great because 3rd quarter never is. While the metrics are usaully good they will be less then stellar this time, due to the cost of the merger being added in (severance, and ect). I think we are at 2 to 2.5 till the end of the year. Once the 4th quarter numbers come in then we get to 3.8. Then it will keep going up because by the same point or close to it, the interoperable radio will be out (that news a lone will push the stock up) that will be the real driver of new subs. Which will keep the stock moving up, along with the savings that Mel will keep increasingly revise up. That is why I see 4.5 to 5.5 by the end of 2009 or at least by the time they report 2009 4th quarter and full year. We wont have to bother with some people by that time though, because those people will be long gone.
I have gone over all this before in various different post.
stinkaroo, I only did it this time because I know there are morons out there that are going to try and say I am saying something different then before.
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1. Second largest pay radio in US
2. Subs base keep on increasing consistently even during downturn and uncertainity period during the merger process.
3. All big radio stars joining together that can defeat any other radios
4. Coverage is unlimited including the remote areas where no other radio is able to reach.
5. Management is determined and focused e.g. wining the impossible merger.
6. Monthly subs charges just about the cost of one STARBUCKS coffee for such a great service.
Negative (Only one)
1. Company has still not started making profits.
Reasons
- 18 long months of merger process left lot of new subs undecided.
(Now no more confusion).
- Economic downturn (Which is not going to stay forever and nobody likes it)
Future
------
1. No doubt that all the automobiles will have this service.
2. All the mobile phone e.g. iPhone, Nokia will have service in their phones and it will help in increasing the number of retails susbcribers.
3. The scope and coverage is not only limited to U.S.
and many other reason that can very well turn the only one negative into very big positive. (Minimum 50 million susbs by 2010).
Run, don't walk, away from this penny-stock!
It's worth $.10 at best......pure garbage.
Reverse split is on the way.
Disclosure:
Looking to buy
While all those bozo's on CNBC were saying that in 6 months the US airline industry, as we know it, will be out of business or consolidated down to 1 or 2 carriers(oil @$146 bl) and all the rest of us world travelers riding GrayHound to our next business meeting, yours truly was buying "best of breed" in the sector @ $4 shr. ....sold in the mid $9s , thats 36K profit in 6 trading days, do I really need to say were my cash is sitting now????
and "O" this little factoid came straight from a CNBC guest analyst Quote " since the first flight from, Orville and Wilbur, the airline sector as a whole has not generated 1 red cent of profit, shocking planes still in the air.
Back to SiriusXM, look for the stock to settle, one bit of positive news and look out, this bs happens month after month in the market. just like in nature the hawks drive all the chicks away for the real meat.
....and a message for the masses, stop looking to cramer for your next hot stock pick, he's a tv entertainer!!! same as dr. phil, both need to keep there advertisers happy and O yeah ... push their latest new "how to books"
FYI...his subscription service is no better than his TV show as far as his stock advice goes. Action Alerts portfolio is MINUS 14.27 % year to date. He's a huckster and a clown as far as I'm concerned.
As for SIRI being his company, shareholders ARE the owners of the company. Anyway, this is all opinion and there's no reason not to be civil with each other during the discussion.
cos1000, He (Rawhurt) is just pissed he got in (by the way was his decision and his alone) to make a quick buck on the merger and it did not work out for him. Ether that or he is a terrestrail radio investor that sees his investment tanking now because of SIRIXM. It is not SIRIXMs fault that the NAB used the nuclear option in the end, to the FCC and said that satellite radios spectrum is so big and it is such a monopoly that it would force them out of OEMs. altogether.
He wonders why I can be so happy at this time, I was there when not even half of what is being said about SIRIXM now, was being said about DISH after their merger failed. That turned out pretty well for me, because I held. So I love the fact the merger is just over. I cant wait for the next few years when people like Rawhurt are pissing and moaning that they got out to save a small percentage of their investment, only to see that if they stayed in they would have had enough to retire on.
By the way for those that think SIRIXM has a large debt load take a look at LVLT, they have 6 billion in debt and have 1.6 billion shares. The share price is 3.26. Now I know the have revenues in the 4 billion and are FCF positive to the tune of 240 million a year. They are still losing money .08 cents a share a quarter. Now where do you think SIRIXM will be by 2010. I am willing to bet they have way more then 240 million in FCF positive. Hell people SIRI had 80 million in the 4th quarter and was able to use that to make them FCF positive for 1/2 the year in 2007, all the while with their hands being tied by the merger for most of that year. Mel said (something I have said myself) in a employee meeting. "Look at retail it went down just after the merger was anounced". That is not the only reason though that is because if you get it in your car there is no reason to buy a radio to put it in your car (common sense, right). So it carries forward as more people get it in there cars there will be no need to get it at a store, to put it in your car.
Positive
-------
1. Second largest pay radio in US
VOV: I'm not sure what you mean by this. Regardless of which metric you use, it's useless if the company is never going to be profitable.
2. Subs base keep on increasing consistently even during downturn and uncertainity period during the merger process.
VOV: Subscriber base and revenues are increasing, but the growth rate is decelerating substantially. The company must maintain a more vigorous growth rate if it is going to reach its own profitability targets.
3. All big radio stars joining together that can defeat any other radios
VOV: Unclear what you mean here.
4. Coverage is unlimited including the remote areas where no other radio is able to reach.
VOV: Dimensionsa of coverage area are meaningless if subscribers don't sign up in sufficient numbers. Do those remote areas have enough subscribers to offset all costs and make the company profitable? Thoughts please.
5. Management is determined and focused e.g. wining the impossible merger.
VOV: So were the managements of WorldCom and AOl Time Warner, among others.
6. Monthly subs charges just about the cost of one STARBUCKS coffee for such a great service.
VOV: Starbucks has announced a massive wave of store closures in the face of slumping sales. Starbucks is also resorting to promotions in order to juice stagnant sales. It also just reported a quarterly loss. Your point is....?
Negative (Only one)
1. Company has still not started making profits.
VOV: I would describe this as a substantial negative, given that profits are the only driver of the stock price.
Reasons
- 18 long months of merger process left lot of new subs undecided.
(Now no more confusion).
VOV: I agree that the merger removed much of the ambiguity surrounding the company, but this does not mean subscribers are going to rush to sign up.
- Economic downturn (Which is not going to stay forever and nobody likes it)
VOV: This economic downturn is largely consumer-focused. Wait until earnings reports on retailers come out in August. Sales are going to be awful for July. This consumer spending downturn will last well into 2009. Sirius doesn't have that kind of time. It must become profitable soon if it is to survive.
Future
------
1. No doubt that all the automobiles will have this service.
VOV: This is a baseless cheerleading claim. Show us your rationale.
2. All the mobile phone e.g. iPhone, Nokia will have service in their phones and it will help in increasing the number of retails susbcribers.
VOV: You're claiming that satrad will be a supplier to mobile phones and Blackberries? You clearly haven't researched this industry thoroughly enough.
3. The scope and coverage is not only limited to U.S.
VOV: Sirius Canada. How does that make the company more profitable?
and many other reason that can very well turn the only one negative into very big positive. (Minimum 50 million susbs by 2010).
VOV: To reach 50 million subscribers in 2010 from 18 million at the end of 2007, subscribers would have to grow by 42% annually. In the second quarter of 2008, subscriber growth slowed to 25% versus 50% in 2007. Where will the 40% annual growth come from, especially if automakers are building fewer cars?
FarAway, you have some work to do.
Regarding the spectrum needs that is why they refused to give up spectrum to all the freeloaders, and haven't indicated they were interested in selling surplus spectrum.
The reason is that they will eventually trot out a real sat tv service that will take market share from Direct, Dish, and cable because of the mobile/portable nature of it. Imagine- No need for a dish, and you can take with you in the car/boat/camper, or to the weekend home.
I think that Mel plans on running a mega media company that sat radio is only a small part of.
A reverse split is simply an open admission from management that the underlying business is so profit-depraved that the only way to increase the stock price is through artificially-imposed financial engineering measures. If the business has real, tangible profit potential, it doesn not require a reverse split to make the stock price appreciate. I run, rather than walk away, from the stock of companies engaged in reverse splits.
A reverse split is just one more symptom of the poor performance prospects SIRI has as an investment. Best case scenario, it lures more sucker individual investors to buy more of a penny-stock because it creates the appearance of appreciation.
Successful, profitable companies buy back their shares. They don't execute reverse splits.
Before you excoriate me for saying the obvious, ask yourselves this question: If all of you are such successful investors, then why aren't you rich?
This stock is Crap !!
On good news the stock is Down.
On bad news it's Down.
Market is up the stock is Down.
Market is Down the stock is Down.
The stock already popped. You will be lucky if it pop again in a few years and break even! For now there are better investments out there.
The way things are going in a few more weeks it will be at 65 cents.
All of you that have invested in this get out and save the rest of your money !
The first example was that comment ( listen to me and cost-1000).
Me implies you 163888.I thought this forum was for better knowlidge for your investment and not braging rights.And the other comment (here we go),it was the other genius (cost-1000),when the merger was announced.I never mentioned that you said that the stock was going to sky rocket.But mind you everyboby was expecting a pop anywhere from 4 to 5.00,including the genius him self Cramer.
I'm just expressing my opinion on what I've read here after my long and painfull investment on this stock.Which I made a lousy profit,but it's better being up then down.But to your credit cost-1000 rubbed me more the wrong way then you did.
Anyhow I do apologize for you wasting your time on your cutting and pasting.But my view did not change on me thinking that you and cost-1000 are two guys that think they know it all.
And guess what I just both 6000 shares of SIRI on friday at 1.47.
I think I should be able to get a good 20 to 30% on my investment within a 1 month from now.
Buy GURUS........
........ I agree with looking at the metrics for future results. I also think that the next two quarters are critical to boost investor confidence. I am a firm believer in “Growing The Size of the Pie” not simply making the pieces of pie bigger. A reverse split shows desperate thinking and perception Is Reality in the investment community.
(does this sound familiar VicDav) Healthy companies buy back stock, and pay down or off debt as cash builds to increase investor equity, which raises the stock price and investor confidence. Another way to increase the “size of the pie” . Given the tremendous dilution of Sirius Xm Radio shares already, Mel needs to build confidence in management’s ability to the execute the operating plan as stated. Any further weakening of investor perception with a reverse spit will be devastating to the company and stock price. Mel being Mel, will not do a reverse stock split after already giving common share stockholders a “Black Eye” for the team on Monday.
....And This:
killerkaul, how easy these folks give up hope. If we had gotten the pop like they bet on we wouldn't be hearing from them now. I don't recall 163888, you or myself saying we were in this for a PoP or that there would be one. My forecast has always said and I still know that success of the stock price will now follow the success of the company's execution of operating plans. As much as we can speculate on the business model, I have invested in Mel Karmazin and his expertise to lead the Blue Dog to positive cash flow, now sooner than later, and profitability. My theme has always been that now the merger is over its time to Execute, Execute, and the Execute and deliver great, beat expectation numbers in the future.
When Rawbhurt the genius that he is posted this:
It's funny,you don't read any comments from cost100 and is partener with some type of meaningless #.The guy from Goldman sachs was right and also the people who wrote pessimistic opinion on this merger.
When a merger is going to be announced there is always a pop.But this one never had legs.It's like in baseball when you know that a fast ball is coming to you,you get ready for that pitch and drill it out of the ball park.But this one had a sinker and the only people who seen it ,are the one who understood the situation.And I'm so glad I sold my 3790 shares at 2.70 before the merger was announced.Made about 150.00 profit in my 6 long months of waiting.When we all knew tate was going to say yes and there was no significant pop.I knew this was a sinker too.THANK GOOD.....
I Posted this:
Rawblurt, I am so glad you sold your shares and made some money. Only someone with your foresight in "seeing" ability could of called that refinancing the way you did to make $150. Mel is the only one that was smart enough to do it so that my new company will have a stronger balance sheet in the future by lower financing costs for our newly acquired asset XM. I know its painful now but as I said, I really don't care about stock price for the next two weeks to two months. But I am glad your out.
And now I congratulate you again Rawblurt for making another insightful and profitable decision by buying back into "Our Company" with a $6,000 share purchase at a $1.47. With your "seeing" abilities, please be sure to let us know the next time we should sell so we can all make some money. Thanks and I hope your mother is well.
Aside from a RSS, I am looking forward to Thursday's conference call. Mel has spent a week rallying the troops with town meetings and show appearances, with some management position announcements, now is the time for him to begin to address the investment community with some "Broad Brush Strokes" outlining his plan to Increase Revenue and Decrease Costs, significantly. Then he needs to follow up with Press Releases through the end of the Summer and a Marketing Plan for the Fall & Christmas Retail Season. I think it will also be critical for details on the OEM channel and what this all means, and also the "secondary" or used car market and how to capture that business on subsidies that are already paid, lower SAC for those. I know you know that these areas are important and that reaching and surpassing cost saving synergies is key. The Cap ex savings alone, are significant as you have already pointed out, by pushing the launch out of the second satellite, but more detail will be helpful to building investor confidence. And I believe that has been eroded significantly and requires much attention.
Rawbhurt
Jun 29 10:19 AM Mike,you hit the nail right on the head.Thank's for the wake up call.
I've been a sirius stock holder for the last 5 months and my price to break even is $2.62 so you could bet that I will be one of those quick in and out,sooné.
So how does it figure if you sell 3790 at 2.7 and bought them at a break even of 2.62 you only make 150.00 it is more like 303.00 then take 16 to 20 (at most, because he buys and sells alot as he claims) for commisions I get 283.00 at the very least. My point being is if you are telling the truth you are not going to be that far off on what you make or lost on a stock. YOU BLOODY F-ING LIER, Rawbhurt.
by the way 163888,like I said before,you are to paranoid.
I CONVERTED MY CANADIEN MONEY IN US $$.
So with the exchangerate and my commission,my price was reall 2.64.I tought it was 2.62 by memory,EXCUSE ME.
So if you want to get to the penny I really made 169.40 profit
after commission.When I wrote my comment I rounded the # to 150.00.You make me laugh 163888,if want to split hair just to make a point.You two BOZOS stick out like sore thumbs on this site.
No wouder you guys caught my attention ,from the looks of it ,others too .
I couldn't care less if you believe me or not.
You guyzzzz are too funny.......
Yea Rawbhurt, try anything to get out of a lie you got cought in, aa. I no of nobody that does that, they all know exactly what price they paid for the stock, especially with that few shares involved. If they figure in the cost of the commision and exchange rate to their price of the stock. That is the price they will always give. Just like if I say I bought a stock for 4.23 and dont include the commision which I never do, I just figure 16.00 off the final profits. I will always say I got it for 4.23. especially when you are dealing with a stock as low as 2 dollars, and trading it for a few pennies gain or loss. So you better come up with a better excuse then that. Just say you lied, and apologize without the name calling, or I will do to you what I do to VicDave and bring up the dumb a$$ thing everytime I see you post on here. Like I make VicDave look like an idiot that he is. I will make you look like a lier that you are. You then try and repost the laim excuse and people will see right through it. Because as I have said on a 2 dollar stock and you trading in pennies that you admitted that you do, you always know just what you paid for a stock with everything included and that is always the price people give unless they are trying to lie.
GOOD LUCK GURU.