Maybe It's Not Just a Mental Recession

The Commerce Department released its initial estimate for second quarter GDP along with some major revisions going back more than three years. More later...

Just had to mention this "Predictions" post at Seeking Alpha, from January 1st, 2007:

7. Economic Growth will Slow, Consumption will Continue...

Economic growth will continue to slow, coming in just below 2 percent for the year with a recession starting in the fourth quarter.

Note that economic growth for 2007 was revised to exactly 2.0 percent in 2007 - the chart above is a bit misleading because it simply averages the previous four quarters to arrive at an annual rate.

Comments

[Will Rahal:]

The debt level is not mental.
The heavy tilt to services is not mental.
There is a 25-year cycle associated with economic distress.

2008 Aug 02 11:20 AM