Cramer's Mad Money - Day Of Atonement (9/26/12)

 |  Includes: CMG, DECK, DRI, ESV, ETP, FSLR, PG, RIG, YUM
by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Wednesday September 26.

Day of Atonement: First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR), Darden (NYSE:DRI), Yum Brands (NYSE:YUM), Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG), Deckers (NASDAQ:DECK), Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE:ETP), Transocean (NYSE:RIG), Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG), Ensco (NYSE:ESV)

In honor of the Day of Atonement, Cramer dedicated Wednesday's program to discussing unsuccessful calls of the past year.

First Solar (FSLR) was a stock Cramer thought was a value trap because he felt European governments could no longer afford to subsidize solar, and he underestimated the positive effects of reforms to Chinese tariffs on FSLR's business. When the stock hit $13, he described it as "untouchable," but the company got a slew of domestic orders. Cramer said he was being a "hog" on the downside, and assumed FSLR would go lower, but the stock rose. Cramer would not buy it, but it is not such a terrible stock.

Darden (DRI) was placed on the Sell Block when the company preannounced a poor quarter because of a 2.9% decline in same store sales for the Olive Garden. Even though the stock was yielding 4.4%, Cramer told investors to get out of DRI and buy Yum (YUM). While YUM saw a 20% increase, DRI roared back with significant improvement in the Olive Garden sales and earnings acceleration. The stock has risen 30% since Cramer's bearish call. One lesson to be learned is that it pays to be patient with solid companies with good dividends.

Chipotle (CMG) is a stock Cramer describes as a "bad romance." He admitted to the error of falling in love with the stock because he and his family love the restaurant, and in spite of strong fundamentals, every stock can take a breather. When same store sales decelerated from 12% to 8%, the stock got hammered. Since CMG is a high multiple momentum stock, The Street could not forgive any negativity, and the decline was harsh. One lesson to be learned from CMG is to be wary of stocks trading at a multiple that is twice the growth rate.

Deckers (DECK) was a stock Cramer correctly warned investors to get out of; he suggested selling it in the $80s and the stock is in the $40s. What he regrets about his analysis of Deckers is that he denied that Uggs were a fad. The stock ran up 35% on the Uggs craze, but has declined 75% since. Cramer says he should have considered the fact that Uggs would lose their popularity at some point.

Procter & Gamble (PG) CEO Bob McDonald was placed on Mad Money's CEO Wall of Shame because the stock wasn't budging, and the company seemed to have lost its way. While PG took a while to come back, the problems were inherited by McDonald, who instituted a $10 billion cost cutting strategy that seems to be working. The company is reclaiming market share with new products and aggressive advertising. Cramer took Bob McDonald off the Wall of Shame and says he would buy it on a decline, but with the stock performing so well, it will not be easy to find one.

Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) CEO Kelsey Warren is the opposite of Bob McDonald; Cramer says he has trusted Warren too much. The stock yields 8%, but that is not enough to offset Warren's extravagant spending and debt problems. Cramer would give ETP one more chance before putting Warren on the Wall of Shame; if its acquisition goes well and if the company grows earnings, perhaps its recent performance can be seen as a hiccup. In the meantime, ETP is Cramer's least favorite charitable trust holding.

Ensco (ESV) has been volatile because of the fluctuation in oil prices. Ensco was taking market share of Transocean (RIG), and Cramer bought it as an oil play. When oil prices tanked, so did ESV, and Cramer decided to stay just long enough to make a bit of money in the stock. However, he sold too quickly, and ESV kept going higher. Cramer thinks he should have been more patient with ESV, since its long-term story is sound.


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