Tax Season: Historical Precedent For This Period

by: TickerSense

With the Federal tax deadline approaching, we looked to see if there are any market trends in the week before April 15th (or in this year's case April 17th or 18th depending on your state). Since the IRS designated April 15th as the due date to pay taxes in 1954, the market has risen 65% of the time the week before, for an average gain of 0.48%.

We also broke out the results based on whether or not the market was up or down the prior calendar year (Presumably, investors will have more taxable capital gains, and therefore a greater tax bill following a year in which the market was up). As the results detail, the market's performance the week before April 15th is considerably better when the prior year was down (1.35% following down years vs. 0.15% following up years).