U.S. Energy Weather Snapshot

This week’s pattern across many of the primary US demand centers is moderately bearish, as most of the heat will be restricted to the Southern Plains and the southwest. Evening temperatures in eastern cities have been pleasant, reducing nighttime cooling requirements across demand centers from Boston through Washington DC.

As the ridge in the southwest retrogresses to the west, the center of warmer air will shift to the western US into next week. This weakening ridge will also allow for more moisture to move into the southern plains and parts of the southeast, as Tropical Storm Edouard (currently making landfall) brings strong winds and a lot of rain to eastern TX and LA.

While the system moved through the areas where rigs are located, the late development of Edouard spared shutdowns, and the market has softened further as of early trading this morning.

Other than the western US, most of the country will see a reduction in cooling requirements through the end of next week. Most short term models are in agreement on the positioning of the ridge in the southwest/western states, and the central through eastern US should benefit from some cooler temperatures. After a brief 4-5 day warming period during the week of 17 Aug, temperatures look to scale back again, so for the month of August, the overall weather picture supports demand reduction.

Our August CDD forecast is projecting New York to see 334 CDDs, Chicago 225 CDDs, Washington DC 294 CDDs, and Atlanta 458 CDDs (54, 88, 68 and 188 fewer CDDs, respectively, than August 2007 totals). Other than the current TS, there is no other threatening tropical activity at the moment. There is a little more convection off of the West African coast, but nothing that looks to develop in the short term, easing pressure on crude and NG.

As of this writing, crude is trading below $120 ($119.2 to be exact), and the lack of tropical activity, the anticipated lower cooling demand and overall demand destruction will continue to place fundamental downside pressure on futures, and subsequent downside risk to PowerShares DB Energy Fund ETF (DBE), PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund ETF (DBC), and United States Oil Fund ETF (USO).

Disclosure: The author has holdings in DBC and DBE.

Comments

[Ishortyou:]

Nah we just gonna stay away from dark ages fossile fuel and use new age technologies such as electric and hydrogen-water.

2008 Aug 06 08:08 AM