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Corn stocks bullishly dropped below one billion bushels in the USDA's release of the Quarterly Grain Stocks report today. Soybeans came in within the expected range and wheat had a slightly bullish tone as stocks fell below estimates. Overall, this report gave a jolt to corn and wheat to the upside, which is surprising as most analysts predicted a neutral tone.

USDA reported 988 million bushels on hand for September 1, 2012, below last year's 1.128 billion bushels. Of the total stocks, 314 million bushels are stored on farms, down slightly to last year. Off-farm stocks were at 675 million bushels, down 17% from a year earlier. June-August 2012 disappearance is 2.16 billion bushels, compared with 2.54 billion bushels a year ago.

Soybean stocks decreased 21% compared with last year with 169 million bushels as of September 1, 2012. Stocks stored on farms totaled 38.3 million bushels, a 21% decrease from last year. Off-farm stocks decreased to 131 million bushels, down 21% from last September. June-August 2012 disappearance was 498 million bushels, an increase of 23% from last year.

Wheat stocks decreased 2% from last year with 2.10 billion bushels being reported on September 1, 2012. On-farm stocks were estimated at 573 million bushels, down 9% from last September. Off-farm stocks were up 1% from last year, coming in at 1.53 billion bushels. The June-August 2011 disappearance was 908 million bushels, up 27% from September of last year.

Outlook

Corn and wheat prices have rallied this morning due to the surprising low stocks reported for both grains. Now our attention will be pulled toward harvest and the upcoming WASDE as we look forward to actual yield data. Look for our breakdown of the next WASDE coming out on October 11, 2012.

Source: Corn Stocks Fall Below 1 Billion Bushels