Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Friday September 28.
8 Things to Watch in the Coming Week: Mosaic (MOS), Phillips Van Heusen (PVH), Family Dollar (FDO), Marriott (MAR). Other stocks mentioned: Monsanto (MON), Dollar General (DG), Wyndham Worldwide (WYN), Select Comfort (SCSS), Nike (NKE), Juniper (JNPR), Cisco (CSCO).
The Institute for Supply Management's September Report: The report should indicate if a slowdown is happening. If the numbers are not good, stocks may be taken down.
The German Purchasing Managers Index: While the German stock market has been up 23%, a lackluster number from this report could be a boon in disguise. It might show that Germany's hardline position against bailouts is hurting the country, and might indicate a softening of its economic strategy regarding poorer nations.
Mosaic (MOS) reports but Cramer prefers Monsanto (MON) as a way to play agriculture since it is a higher-quality company. However, Monsanto is more expensive than Mosaic. Cramer would listen to Mosaic's earnings call as a gauge on the agriculture sector.
Phillips Van Heusen (PVH) Analyst Day should be positive since retail has been strong.
The European Central Bank reports. It should indicate the future of bailouts and a roadmap for dealing with the European economic crisis.
The Labor Department Non-Farm Payroll report might be the most important piece of data for the entire week, "or for the entire year, if you are Mitt Romney," said Cramer. The last report was downbeat, but was softened by a Fed meeting. Since the Fed isn't meeting this week, a bad number may take stocks down on Friday.
Cramer took some calls:
Select Comfort Corporation (SCSS) is in a sector that is a huge battleground arena: Mattresses. Cramer would stay away.
Nike (NKE) charges too much for its sneakers. Cramer has been bullish on Nike but he would use any rise in the stock as a selling opportunity.
Exelis (XLS) successfully spun off ITT (ITT) but since the breakup the stock is covered by only 4 analysts, all of whom say it is a "Hold." The company generates a large amount of its revenues from defense but worries that spending cuts might be exaggerated or baked in. The stock yields 4%, which may provide protection if the stock sees some downside. The $10 stock trades for just 6 times earnings and Cramer doesn't see a lot of risk. CEO David Melcher says that since the spinoff of ITT, the company is more focused in a niche defense area but its technology can be applied for commercial uses, particularly in aerospace. While the defense budget could be cut as much as 9%, the company is expanding to deal with such cutbacks. The company has strict security rules to prevent its technology from falling into the hands of hostile nations. XLS has a competitive dividend, and Cramer says he is not as worried about XLS as he is about other defense companies.
Countries are going to have to start printing more money and that means that gold will go higher. Cramer has ceased recommending miners, given the risks and expense involved in the actual mining process, and has recommended SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) or physical gold instead. However, Cramer discussed another way to play gold, through Sandstorm (SAND), a company that is like a banker for miners; it funds projects and receives a portion of future gold finds as payment. SAND is smaller and cheaper than its competitors, and has acquired 11 assets, 5 of which are producing, and most in areas with low geopolitical risk. The company has $150 million in capital to fund new projects and predicts it can grow production by 228% by next year. Cash flows are expected to increase 43% by 2013. Cramer would buy half a position now and the other half when the stock drops.
Cramer took some calls:
Achillion Pharmaceuticals (ACHN) is a winning spec play.
Corrections Corporation of America (CXW) is the largest privatized prison company, with prisons in 19 states. While the market is enormous and has a long runway for growth, the stock has had a massive rise of 45% so far this year. The multiple is 20 compared to a 10% growth rate, and Cramer thinks it might be too richly valued. The company expects to become a REIT, which could add 20% to its stock price, but the stock could decline 15%. Cramer thinks the risk/reward is not appealing enough to buy CXW.
Splunk (SPLK) has been a hot IPO that enables companies to get a read on how efficiently their IT systems are working. However, with companies cutting IT budgets, and with SPLK's vulnerability to competition, Cramer doesn't think the stock is worth the risk. Those who hold the stock should take the money and run.
Cabela's (CAB) has had a run but the gun business is hot. The company should report a strong quarter.
Home Depot (HD) is still a buy because homeowners are spending more money on their properties.
Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) had some order cancellations, but this bad news is baked in. While the stock has been performing badly, and the stock may not have bottomed, it is dirt cheap and a buy.
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