US Major Index and Sector Bull/Bear Filter

Between 7/15 and 7/23 the S&P 500 financial sector rallied 30% over 8 days and marked the beginning of a new bull market after its 54% decline from 2/20/07 to 7/15/08.  Birinyi Associates defines bull and bear markets based on the traditional definition of a 20% gain or loss from peak to trough. 

The following table highlights the current cycle for the DJIA, S&P 500 and its ten sectors as well as the historical average (since 1962) for each.  The sectors are traditionally more volatile than the markets; financials for example have had 20 bull and bear market cycles since 1962 compared to the S&P's eight rallies and nine declines.

click to enlarge

Please note that the utilities and materials sectors peaked on 12/10/07 and 5/16/08 but have not yet declined 20% from those peaks and have therefore not yet entered a new cycle.  The average bear market for utilities is -32.26% and the average bear market for materials is -29.02%.

Comments

[Vox Rationalis:]

Um.... so?

2008 Aug 07 05:58 PM

[bold4gold:]

Thank you BS Detector. This article lacks a conclusion.

2008 Aug 07 06:24 PM

[alan_gerhard:]

The article may lack a conclusion, but it does have a point - and that being 'We are in bear territory' ... ' course this is not breaking news. However, knowing /seeing the depth of the Sector Bear will definitely help us all to understand when to bare; no bull. Me ? Just hanging outside the Bear Cave waiting for a bottom I recognize and then I shall jump in - obnoxiously heavy in financials; probably an ETF

2008 Aug 07 06:38 PM

[Flying Bird:]

It is foolish to think that this article lacks a point. The point: the current bear market is not as bad as historical bear markets. Get ready for another leg down, I say at the 200-day average.

2008 Aug 08 03:43 PM