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I receive a lot of e-mail regarding the potential of satellite radio in the used car market. While I agree that there is a market there, I have trouble trying to use that factor as a reason to look at SDARS in any manner differently.

The used car channel has the advantage of giving satellite radio potential additional subscribers on vehicles that already have the radio installation subsidized and paid for. This makes that potential subscriber more profitable to the company, but how is that success measured? The lack of the ability to measure this metric always makes me discount it from an investment perspective.

Instead, I try to focus on the metrics that can be measured, and have more predictable results. I look at this used car market as an added bonus should it develop into something more measurable that adds to the bottom line.

While I do feel that SIRIUS XM Radio (SIRI) should try to market to these potential subscribers, I also recognize that there is no guarantee at this point how successful the marketing campaign would be. How much money should be spent in an effort to get an unknown amount of subscribers?

In order to get to their stated goals, and in order to impress investors, SIRIUS XM Radio needs to offer demonstrable results, and something that everyone can sink their teeth into. I view the used car market as having great potential, but am not hanging my hat on it. Results in this sector are in my opinion an added bonus.

What I feel will happen is that Mel Karmazin will get into a heavier marketing to this segment a few quarters down the road. The company is already addressing the certified pre-owned market, and that can deliver measurable results via reporting from the OEM’s. Extending beyond that too quickly, and investing heavy dollars into a program that is at best an experiment is not a move that I see Karmazin doing right off the bat. Given time, this market can develop further. Many potential subscribers may well activate via exposure to existing advertising.

The bottom line is that the used car market will develop with time organically. Know that it is there, and understand the potential, but in my opinion, don’t use it as a foundation for placing your bets.

Position - Long SIRI

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This article has 113 comments:

  •  
    I heard two important items. No reverse spit because he does not see it adding value to the company. The second being that he is focused on shareholders and their disappointment. I want a complete plan presented, not bits and pieces. This is the last report of Sirius as a stand alone company. I’ve waited this long. I certainly can wait until after Labor Day for a detailed and attainable plan moving forward. By then they will have had a whole 4.5 weeks with XM’s books. A little patience here is called for. The company needs to take care of its employees who will be displaced through consolidation and build its management plan utilizing "Best Practices" of the two companies now becoming one.
    2008 Aug 08 08:04 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    correction....reverse split not "spit"
    2008 Aug 08 08:05 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Does anyone else here think there should be some new analyst rankings here? We are now even more than 20% below Wienkes price target of $1.75 for the combined company.

    I've enjoyed reading many of the comments by most of you all and appreciate the additional information and insights/feelings about this company.

    To VoV, what are you doing here? If you don't have a position on this company, why troll these articles?

    To VerySERIOUS, you really don't need to bash Tyler, he's disclosed his position that he's long, he will probably try to see the positive in this company going forward, it's his opinion/research, get over it please.

    About me, been buying both SIRI and XMSR since 2003, and averaging down like the rest of you longs. hopefully we'll see you on the happy side soon. Best wishes for all.
    2008 Aug 08 09:17 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I have been the one harping on the used car segment. Thanks for addressing it Tyler.
    2008 Aug 08 09:23 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Still not sold on your take of the used car market. My I bought my daughter a used Civic that had an after market Sirius radio. Since I already had one in my car I thought it was a no brainer. I recieved the family discount of $6.95 pr mnth. So I called Sirius from my cell while I was in her car and within a couple of minutes "Wham" she was activated. Hardly any cost to Sirius at all! But I knew about it being an existing customer. Making a new used car owner aware of the fact or with a small Sirius Xm incentive I think they should jump on this ASAP. Instead of costing the company to get customers they have a source to get "FREE" customers. As Mel has said in the past "It's tough to compete w? Free". Why let those millions of units sit idle?
    2008 Aug 08 09:57 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Neal and Tyler are making the same point, for used cars to be measurable Sirius XM needs to come up with a plan to reach these customers and then measure the success. I think this is part of the greater problem with the retail chain. Maybe these Kiosks need to be expanded so people can accomplish something at them. Counting on BBY and CC for new sales just seems silly. The Ipod can stand alone, but ITunes is the killer app, Sirius XM needs something to draw interest, create retail sales and used car signups.... it needs a face.
    2008 Aug 08 10:16 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The stock is down, so what? If you needed the money short term you shouldn't have bought SIRI. I started accumulating at $4.20 and have ridden it all the way down to our low of $1.29. Again, so what? I will sell when I think the time is right and that is not now. The people getting mad at the analysts are those who choose not to do any research themselves. There is no need to swear and trash these boards when you yourself probably made a stupid decision to buy on margin. Tyler, keep writing what you write. This is a blog and I welcome any insight whether I agree or not.
    2008 Aug 08 11:27 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Market up 194, SIRI down .02. Same old stuff, different day. If I didn't have so much invested in this, I would have been rid of this stock already. The advise I took on buying this I thought was sound. From Cramer to Tyler and numerous other analysts opinions, this stock was ready for a bounce upon the merger approval. Only GS said otherwise, and they were right. I had no intentions of owning this garbage for years, like many others. I had held it long enough, just waiting for a good time to sell. Unfortunately, it went down too much too fast and now I am stuck. I am not trying to complain, I am just trying to make everyone understand what alot of us are feeling.
    2008 Aug 08 11:48 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I'm not happy about where the price is just in case an emergency comes up and I need to liquidate all of my positions. However, my price per share is now at about $2.40 and I own 7500 shares. It's not anywhere near where a lot of people are but being early in career it's a lot for me. Luckily for me I still diversified. I have had a plan all along in that I was going to hold until 2011. I did my own research and gave the company at the end of 2011 a $5/share value due to lower operating costs and unpenetrated markets. So for me I really don't care what the price does until then. If I think the company falls below that value I will sell, and if I perceive the value to be higher I will hold on longer. As for you, stop being ignorant. Statements like what's the difference between paper and realized make you look as such. Stop letting analysts tell you what to do and do some research yourself. Otherwise, buy cd's.
    2008 Aug 08 11:57 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    kristin2024, So let me get this straight, when did you buy SIRI/XMSR?
    2008 Aug 08 12:09 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    kristin2024, I see you dont want to answer the question. When did you get in SIRI/XMSR, how long ago. Are you afraid to answer the question.
    2008 Aug 08 12:21 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Last time I checked Tyler wasn't a financial advisor...he writes his opinion on the stock. If you are too f'ing dumb or lazy to do your own research then you should probably not be in the game. Quit blaming other people for your own ineptitude. You bought the stock, they didn't. I so tired of people coming on these boards and just spewing shit.

    I'm not happy about the price now either, but I did my own research and came to the conclusion that I wanted to invest in this company so I have only myself to blame. I still think siri is a good company and will turn it around, but it will take time and I'm willing to wait it out.

    I appreciate the insight from Killer, Cos, 163888 and the like!
    2008 Aug 08 12:22 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I wish I had more money to dump in SIRI right now. I've done nothing but ride this ship down so far but when it comes back it will be worth it.
    2008 Aug 08 12:28 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    ksukenny, I am sick of these people also. They got in this stock for the merger pop, thinking they were going to make a quick buck and get out leaving us true longs holding the bag. So excuse me for not feeling sorry for this asinine people making these asinine comments. These are the retail investors that Mel was talking about being unsophisticated. I dont need an analyst to tell me after seeing the last quarters results that once you add 1.5 million subs along with the continued savings that have happen over the last few quarters, and then add the 400 million in savings. that they are not far from FCF positive and profit.
    2008 Aug 08 12:35 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Hopefully it goes to a buck or lower. That is the ONLY way I get in on this stock. I was advised to wait til all the dust settles from this merger mess.
    I'm glad I took the advice.
    I'd like to see it go down to $.50, then it would be time to buy 20,000 shares and wait for a nice payday.

    Good luck to you all!
    2008 Aug 08 12:41 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    It won't be overnight. Just look at your own job as an example. If you work for a large company it often times takes weeks to push simple problems and solutions through. The management will need time to sort through all the information they currently have, collect additional information regarding the combined company, and then make informed decisions. That is when you will see a more clear picture of what SIRI will do. As for the cost savings, that is a done deal. It won't be long(year or two) before Sirius XM starts posting quarterly profits.
    2008 Aug 08 12:43 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Kristin2024...we all know your opinion, why can't you just let it go. You made a decision now you have to live with it. If the stock market was a sure thing, everyone would do it and everyone would make money.
    2008 Aug 08 12:45 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Most People were short on Siri, because they know it is the only way to make money on this stock.
    Once they made there money they got out.
    That's smart investing!
    Why?

    Because the short all knew this stock will amount to nothing after the merger.

    Winkie, Winner, hot dog or what ever his name from GS was right.

    No one wanted to listen, everyone just bashed him called him names & said he was with the NAB.


    2008 Aug 08 12:45 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I truly believe that this is one last short selling day to try and get in as the tide is turning and even Cramer is switching his tune (again) While I hate Cramer and think he's a puppet, he does have influence. Look at all of you who bought because of him, well I think he's buying today along with GS and others who probably got in at 1.29/1.30 today and we should rebound to at least 1.50 after labor day. And then it's on as long as Mel starts developing a better public relations plan than he's done thus far. This stock may hover around 1.37 (where Mel Bought!) but within 6 months I'm sure we'll be closer to 2 than 1.3. Just my two cents based on my hunches which mean nothing but I'm not giving up yet

    2008 Aug 08 12:50 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Everyone is in this to make MONEY NOT FRIENDS!

    LONG

    SHORT

    However you make a profit it's fine !
    2008 Aug 08 12:52 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Believe me, it's been hard to sit on my hands and not pull the trigger.
    But I'll continue to play the waiting game even if it takes two or three years for profits to show themselves.

    Right now, too much risk than I'm willing to take on with $10,000.
    2008 Aug 08 12:53 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    hair pie, Remember I said it was going to be a hard 6 months ahead. I was afraid we were going to see Mel go with his normal "under estimate over deliver style". I was hoping he wouldn't do it, but I was afraid he would. I do think he should have come out with more, after 17 months of waiting but that has always been what Mel has done.

    Trust me on this I have said it many times look at the last few quarters the revenue from the new subs has been for the most part going to the bottom line cost are not going up they are coming down remember when I talked about this happening like a light switch, it is happening now. Look they just went from a loss of 79 million on EBITDA to 24 million loss take that a year further and what do you come up with even with out the 400 million in savings. I see by this time next year without any savings it going to 25 million at least in the positive, by the way for the first time ever being positive. That would have happen on a stand alone basis without any merger. As a matter of fact it would have happen much sooner, if the merger were not even mentioned and their hands were not tie for the last 17 months. All I am saying is, as a true long, I am happy as can be the merger is over. Believe me the best is yet to come. Even as Mel said, usually getting the merger approved is the easy part, making it work is the hard part. In this case, it was getting the merger approved that was the hard part, and getting it to work is going to be the easy part. I will leave you with this, Mel has always done what he said he would do and almost always ends up doing more.
    2008 Aug 08 01:02 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    163888, I don't feel sorry for them either...wasn't directing any of my comments toward you other than to say I enjoy reading your posts - always good info.

    I took all the information available to me and made my decision and I'm ok with it. Do I wish it was higher, yes, but that will take some time and I do see the light at the end of the tunnel like most people on here. I've been averaging down like most and I'm comfortable with my position.
    2008 Aug 08 01:05 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Crest

    I understand yes $10,000 is a large amount. Hopefully you will get some of it back. I know that hurts .
    2008 Aug 08 01:05 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Scot here. I just saw a big sign on this site where it read: "Caution, you are now entering the 'wank zone'". It should also say: "Must be 18 to enter." Well, now that I'm in I'll say this: I bought into Sirius amid the "Howard Hype." And this was AGAINST the advice from the brokerage firm who made me sign a disclaimer that if the stock tanked, I wouldn't sue them. So as it is today, I've watched the stock fall from $6.50 to todays low. So what does that mean? Well, for that, it means I'm sucking hind you know what. O'kay, so what. I can bitch, wank and moan, or, I can chalk one up for experience, grab my rear with both hands and ride it out -- I choose the later....

    Oh, I almost forgot, there is one more thing: I bought in with the attitude that I'll either lose it all or make a ton of money with no in between. So for those that have lost on paper, you have a choice: Hang on, or, sell at a loss, lick your wounded nards, and move on....

    Scot's Slant

    2008 Aug 08 01:14 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Chapter 11, get off it that was just luck it went down that far. First of all there was no way to foresee Cramer minutes before SIRI offering its shares up to make it easyer for financing. would come out with a comment about it being a 2 dollar lotery ticket. That droped the offering from about 1.8 to 1.5 that is why it is this low. Mark W. did bring it down before but as we all saw it went back up. Mark W. had thought the amount was going to be twice as much as that actually was.
    2008 Aug 08 01:14 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    ksukenny, I know, I was responding to you as I agree with you.
    2008 Aug 08 01:17 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    163888

    What is the price at right now?

    Enough said !
    2008 Aug 08 01:19 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Just so we are clear Mark W. thought the amount of shares to be offered up were going to be double. He also thought it was going to be more of a dilution that they were going to actually sell them and not just loan them out.
    2008 Aug 08 01:20 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Chapter 11,
    That $10,000 is still on the sidelines....I'm waiting for siri to go below a buck. Or for the company to show profits. i'm just hoping it all aligns perfectly.
    2008 Aug 08 01:22 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Crest

    Good luck to you !
    2008 Aug 08 01:23 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    HEY TYLER STOP BOOTING ME FROM THIS BOARD

    [This comment has been edited for bad language. The author does not control the comments on Seeking Alpha. This user has been, and will continue to be, banned by Seeking Alpha editors for continued bad language and inability to understand the rules of civil discourse that govern comments. - SA Editors]
    2008 Aug 08 01:24 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Once again, what was it after his estimate. it went back up. It did not go down because of what Mark W. was saying it would go down for. He was off by as much as twice as much. Second are you saying he knew what Cramer was going to do at the time he was going to do it. That was the reason for it being as low as it is. The offering went from 1.8 to 1.5 because after Cramers statement the stock went down forcing the offering to go down.
    2008 Aug 08 01:25 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    163888

    Ok !

    2008 Aug 08 01:28 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    ghostOFserious, I stoped buying and selling stocks using Cramers advise a long time ago, TEVA was my lesson. While it did come back up after dropping to 30 from 41 which Cramer recommended it as a buy. It took over a year to get to 49, from 30. The lesson most should take from that though is I held because I still felt it was a good company. It was the right move because I ended up selling it at 48 after 2 years of holding it.
    2008 Aug 08 01:32 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    ghostOFserious, I take Tyler for what he is. He and his site gives information, that it would take me hundreds of hours to get on my own. When he comes out with an opinion I take it in, look at it, and make my own decision weather I agree with it or not. For the most part I do, but there are times I dont. I will remind all of you he and I both tried to tell you there was not going to be a short sqeeze and not to expect to much after the merger. I was lambasted for it, and debated it for more then 10 post, trying to say this. I know cos1000 remembers.
    2008 Aug 08 01:48 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    No one here has mentioned the admonitions of The Vicar. He told you there was no upside. How many times did he repeat this?
    2008 Aug 08 01:52 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    As I remember VicDave also said that the first time it was at 1.7 then when it went from that to 2.7, he was nowhere to be found. I guess a dollar on 1.7 stock was no upside. Then the reason we did not see his face again till it was back down was because he had no clue as to what it would do. Otherwise he would not have disappeared and would have stayed and said it will go back down.
    2008 Aug 08 01:58 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    You all dismissed The Vicar as some kind of pessimistic fool who wouldn't buy into your blind "groupthink" cheerleading. I encouraged all of you to look at this investment skeptically. You wouldn't listen, and you dismissed me. Now you're ended up with a losing stock and no one and nothing to blame but your ignorance and arrogance. I feel sorry for all of you.
    2008 Aug 08 01:59 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    It is all a gamble ! Who knows what the future brings.

    Those that are Long, if you are right on this you will be living the High life & retire. The rest of us continue on our 9 to 5 jobs wishing we were long.

    If the Shorts are right. You just saved yourself from a big loss.

    Who knows time will tell!
    2008 Aug 08 02:00 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    ghostOFserious, If you are talking about Tyler not commenting here to most like yourself. It is because I told him not to bother that if they dont get it after the 4 time it is not worth it. He has expained his position and said he is not a financial adviser and has never said buy sell or put price targets except the one time he said dont think this stock will go up to much after a merger that he thought it would have a hard time getting through the 3s. I have been reading his articles for some time and that was one of the only times I have seen him give anything that even looked like a price target, and even you could see that that was not even close to anything like a price target.
    2008 Aug 08 02:58 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    163888: My commentary is more intelligent than your investment choices. I never said this co. would go bankrupt.
    2008 Aug 08 03:00 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Everyone - This is not Tyler's fault. He was just one of many who endorsed the idea that the stock would get a bounce once the FCC approved the merger. Cramer was much more vocal saying the stock, when it was around $2.90, would as much as double on the news. All of the pundits made sense except for Weinke from GS. Even GS was wrong, since they had a $1.75 value post-merger. Its now closing in on $1.25. The stock is a dud. I have no idea who is buying and who is selling anymore. We need to stop drinking the kool-aid. I am just looking for suggestions on the best way to move forward as the stock continues to move lower.
    2008 Aug 08 03:11 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    ghostOFserious, As to VicDave, I have posted prevous comments he made that have shown him to be wrong time and time again. You can listen to him if you want. As a matter of fact you should sell your holdings in SIRIXM today because according to him there is no upside and it will most likely go bankrupt very soon. I can guarantee you this, you keep listening to him you will be enjoying your radio for a long time as he takes you from rush hour to the grave.
    2008 Aug 08 03:12 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    163888 you're fabricating distortions about my statements in order to distract attention from the fact that you have egg on your face. You can't and won't admit that The Vicar was right. This is why you lost money on SIRI. You choose what you want to believe, then you select facts that support your belief. Le pauvre bete.
    2008 Aug 08 03:35 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    163888 I am still with you and long sdiri. I will buy more here after I sell some MCD.

    Tyler your the best. Thx for all you do.

    Run Blue Dog RUn
    2008 Aug 08 03:37 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    You only lose if you sell Vicar. Long Siri!
    2008 Aug 08 03:38 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    ghostOFserious Even though I am crying as the stock price goes down, your posts have me rolling on the floor in laughter-you remind me of this guy www.youtube.com/watch?...
    2008 Aug 08 04:09 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    chapter 11....while the stock is trading at all time low bankruptcy is out of the question......Why?...M... just bought I think 2 mil shares...He wouldn't do this and he wouldn't have fully financed in this was the case. This subject is only surfacing because of the unbeleivably cheap share price. Get in now while Siri is at these prices because it won't be long before it goes consistently up up up
    2008 Aug 08 04:10 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    User 225305

    Chapter 11, it's just a name !

    2008 Aug 08 04:13 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Well User 225305, I guess I shouldn't feel so bad. Today, Mel lost almost $200,000!!
    2008 Aug 08 04:14 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I goto a club called Chapter 8 on Friday nights.
    I'm Not kidding look it up.

    It's in Agoura Hills , CA
    2008 Aug 08 04:18 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    VicDave said this:

    The Vicar
    of Value
    Aug 08 03:00 PM163888: My commentary is more intelligent than your investment choices. I never said this co. would go bankrupt.

    I will once again show how he lies:

    The Vicar
    of Value
    Aug 01 07:06 PMThis is a rationalization of a poorly-considered investment strategy. Professional money managers and institutional investors have studied this company thoroughly. They're steering clear of this stock for one reason: It has an unfavorable risk-reward profile. The upside probability is scant compared to the risks the stock will eventually be worthless. Furthermore, there is the opportunity cost to consider: There are too many other more attractive investments out there that offer substantially higher return for a given level of risk. Read the tea leaves, my friends. You're swimming upstream by owning this stock, but your pride will not allow you to admit your mistake. The market, however, will do the convincing.

    The key words there are "stock will eventually be worthless." what else does that mean.

    Then he says this:

    "The Vicar
    of Value
    Jul 01 11:49 PM Remember, gentlemen, that these companies have billions in debt, negative shareholder equity, slowing subscriber growth, and billions in accumulated losses. Those are some pretty substantial headwinds. I contend that these companies don't have enough time to ride out the economic storm. They've pushed their profitability forecasts back repeatedly since their inception. More of the same is coming, but there will come a point when the capital spigot will run bone dry."

    What else did he mean when he said this: " but there will come a point when the capital spigot will run bone dry."

    Next he said this:

    The Vicar
    of Value
    Jul 01 09:38 AM Thanks for your positive feedback, Shure. I'm certain you'll be fine.

    Just keep in mind that these are heavily leveraged, unprofitable companies with limited operating histories and substantial potential for shareholder dilution. Their upside is limited, and downside is zero.

    What does it mean when a stock price is zero.

    Next he said this:

    "The Vicar
    of Value
    Jun 26 06:08 PM I've been urging you to curb your enthusiasm for these stocks, as they have little upside, and downside is zero. You didn't want to hear that, so you tuned me out and dismissed me. Now that my advice has been vindicated with substantial retreats in the stock price, you taunt me. Research does not drive stock price. A profitable business model does."

    Now once again what else could he mean by go to zero. I also want you all to take a look at the date, it was when the stock went to 1.8 the first time then went to 2.7 and once again I'll say it, were was he then. Thats right not one word, not even a peep. Until it went back down. Why, well that is clear he had no clue, at what it would do. Other wise he would have still been there saying it would go back down.


    Next he said again the stock had little up side the stock was at 1.8 and went to 2.7, 2 weeks later and what a surprise we heard nothing from VicDave until it went back down:

    The Vicar
    of Value
    Jul 08 02:54 PM Reagan your best hope is to break even. SIRI has little upside.


    Next I just put this in to show how wrong he has been:

    The Vicar
    of Value
    Jul 11 04:33 PM The Vicar has said before and will repeat: No vote in the foreseeable future. This is a big pocket veto occurring, and you all continue to deny the obvious. Why prolong the agony? There are so many better opportunities for your money.


    Now that was on July 11th he said that. There are other comments where he has stated that not until at least Sep. would a decision be reached at the earlest those were even closer to the decision anouncement. He has also said that there would be more concessions added to Martins, that they would be to big for the company to be able to deal with such as HD being included. (Something I have always said would not happen and that the concessions would be basically what Martin gave. That Tate would want more in the area of inforcement issues.)

    So as I said VicDave has been proven to be a lier once again. Now I suppose VicDave will say something like before about pulling up his old comments to show him to be a lier when he was the one who originally asked me to prove it.
    2008 Aug 08 04:25 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Link to Chapter 8

    www.678dine.com/chapte...
    2008 Aug 08 04:25 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Mel's answer to the question of how soon the interoperable radios could be in new cars was unprepared and boneheaded. The answer should have been " You could order a new car without a radio this fall and have one put in at Best Buy". Then we would see how fast the car companies could move on it.

    Mel was also unprepared to talk about marketing efforts to increase subscribers through year-end. Surely they have great plans in the works! If not they need a whole new marketing department. Here's an idea: seekingalpha.com/artic...

    Finally, Mel failed to lay out a 3 year plan for profitability.

    What we got waqs a standard call for the stand-alone Sirius company when the market was looking for clear direction for the combined company. Let's have a redo. Mel and his staff need to conduct a shareholders conference call within a week to lay it all out.
    2008 Aug 08 04:30 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    VicDave, will you ever learn. Dont lie and dont ask me to prove it. I will call you on it everytime.
    2008 Aug 08 04:30 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    163888 I am glad we are on the same side. You are voted the Perry Mason (attorney) for the Longs lol
    2008 Aug 08 04:46 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Scotty S. I gotta say I like your colorful writing style. Had a good laugh. Ghost boy.....like Cos and 888, ......Tyler is not a financial analyst... he gives his opinion, and it is my humble opinion, that it is well researched...... at the end of his articles he gives his opinion of siri stock. His opinion is a long term positive for the company........... hence the statement of.......Long Siri Jim Cramer touted the stock before the merger as a........................ you guessed it....................... speculative stock. As you know he allows his listeners................ you guessed it again.................... allows his listeners 1......not 2...... not 3.........but only 1 speculative stock in your portfolio. This is only after whetting your appetite to the stock choice, and then directing you to....................... you guessed it again...........to DO YOUR HOMEWORK!!! It would seem that for your lack of taking this valuable advice........... you would rather foul the air with the stench of your vulgarities, blame, and...................... incessant WHINING. Tyler would do all of us a great favor if he would truly give you........... the "BOOT".
    2008 Aug 08 04:55 PM | Link | Reply
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    chicago gary, VicDave makes it to easy. I also have said things that dont hold true like I siad we would see it get up to as high as 3.8 after the merger. The thing is I still believe that, it will get there, it just will take a little longer. I also have been proven to be right on most things I have said. Why, well because I have remained reasonable in what I say. I use common sense to come to a conclusion. While I believe in SIRIXM you dont see me saying it will be 10, and 11 any time soon. I will say I love the last quarter going from a negitive 79 million to a negitive 24 million EDITDA on a stand alone basis was great. I also think seeing they were for FCF for this quarter just shows that they would have been totally FCF positive for all of 2008 on a stand alone basis. Things only get better from here. I bet we dont see VicDave posting on this site in 6 to 9 months.
    2008 Aug 08 05:15 PM | Link | Reply
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    He may post under a new identity
    2008 Aug 08 05:17 PM | Link | Reply
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    chicago gary, I believe we will know. We knew when he came from the Barrons article. It just takes common sense to figure out. As you notice that is why we call him VicDave because he used Dave on the Barrons comment board. By the way Killerkaul that was a good name "VicDave".
    2008 Aug 08 05:31 PM | Link | Reply
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    ghostOFserious, You can direct you venom towards me also. I have held the same opinion on most things as Tyler. Lets be honest you were in the margin and had to cover or lost some investment didn't you. Now you are mad about that right.
    2008 Aug 08 05:35 PM | Link | Reply
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    Hello again, why all the crying about the stock if we all listen to our logical side our brains we would not be angry at any one but ourselves. I own and have kept on buying on the way down. The only ones that I think are having a hard time in the stock makrket at the present time are the people with money problems. The stock market is for those that want to make money in the long run not in the short time. Do not blame your decision of buying SIRI on anyone and if you can not take it go do something else than play with money you can not afford to loose. SIRI will come in it just will take time and all our crying and bitching will not make it go up or down for that matter. Just keep buying and buy other stocks this may be a loser at present but the others are making money to buy more.
    2008 Aug 08 05:43 PM | Link | Reply
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    i've read almost every comment on this board.Although i don't own stock yet.I believe finally the industry has a better chance to succeed now that the merger has happened.I also beleive,those who have been waiting in the shaddows are just waiting for the dust to settle & hear the whistle blow before jumping in the huddle.Global radio is just behind the rest of the global medians.IT is almost inevitable.I think the best of the two company's thinker's combined should lead the company in to new territory.Everyones still on the feild of play & the goal is now wide open;at least for a while.I'm thinking they now get to explode on the goal for awhile uncontested.i also think the long merger proccess left people to invest elsewhere.I also think it will be about weather or not potenial buyers red your posts or not.I was going to set up a buy for monday but after reading all the fear & neagativity , I think I may wait a little longer to see if it dips below a dollar with the other guy.
    2008 Aug 08 05:57 PM | Link | Reply
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    Hello darkness my old friend, I've come to talk to you again... oops, sorry about that, Scot here. I didn't know anyone was listening: I guess I drifted into that dementia arena for a moment. But I'm back.

    A quick question, and please, a straight answer: Mr. Vicar, without using "quantitative metrics", or mathematical formulas, give us your thoughts on a few opportunistic tidbits regarding company stocks that are primed to rise -- you know, this one is worth five-stars, or that one is worth four (by the way, leave anything that rates less than three off the table).

    By the way, one more thing: Please don't let me down. You've made it quite clear that you hold no interest in SiriusXM, so as a trade-off, in convincing us that you know what your talking about, you owe us a juicy tangible that we can sink our teeth into.

    Scot's Slant
    2008 Aug 08 07:02 PM | Link | Reply
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    Scot here. How forgetful of me. See how this dementia thing works -- I forgot to thank killerkaul for the nice compliment. I need to start writing things down. Anyways, thank you sir....

    Scot's Slant
    2008 Aug 08 07:29 PM | Link | Reply
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    These guys can piss and moan and bitch and complain all they want. I don't understand what they think they are accomplishing, but have at it if that floats your boat. In the meantime, I've been buying this week and got my average cost per share down to $1.98.

    I don't know if any of you believe in karma or the secret or visualization or the power of positive thinking or whatever you want to call it...but I believe that if all you do is bitch and complain you'll never get anything but more things to bitch and complain about.

    Why don't you try to be positive for a change and you'll find that good things happen to people that expect good things to happen.


    2008 Aug 08 08:11 PM | Link | Reply
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    No one talk or advertise for Sirius Back seat TV -- 3 Tv channels for kids all the ride and stop "are we there yet"

    All these soccer Mamas would love to know about it
    2008 Aug 08 08:49 PM | Link | Reply
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    you tellem freep. amen. that is the way to think. my glass is always half full. good things will happen for those that wait. t.m.
    2008 Aug 08 08:56 PM | Link | Reply
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    IDIOT, I am sorry to say you also have no clue as to what you are talking about. I will now take a guess that you are posting under a new name also or you are just lied. I dont know yet but I do know that it is one of those. Why, well common sense my man, first of all you blame Tyler for your misfortune. That means you had to be reading his articles for some time and you just decided to comment on it and him now. That does not make sense if it doesn't make sense then it doesn't. Second the reason you have no clue is what has Tyler said that made you get in that was lie. Third you say he knows nothing on this stock I would say, he not only knows alot, he knows more then most invested in it. Hell I know more then most in it, it seems.

    On to VicDave, if you have read all the comments hear, then how can you say VicDave knows anything. I have shown on this article alone how wrong he has been. I have shown how little his knowledge is in SIRI on other articles. I can tell you this much I can goto almost any company and give negitives and tell you how over valued they are. Lets take AAPL I could go there and tell people that it is not worth the 180 or 190 they paid for it. Think about it this way what moron thinks that stock is not over valued it was just 20 dollars 3.5 years ago before it went up to 90 then split and is now 185. There is no way I dont care how many Ipods they sell that a stock should jump from 8.9 billion to almost 300 billion in 3.5 years. Now I would have been wrong at first because it went to 200 a share but then I could say later I was right because it is 169 a share now. Get the point, I hope so because you see I know about as much about AAPL as VicDave knows about SIRI/XMSR. Even though people that have lost 30 dollars a share would be calling me a intelligent person, because I was telling them it was over valued and they should sell. I suggest you put your emotions away or they will end up costing you in the end.
    2008 Aug 08 09:06 PM | Link | Reply
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    163888: Valid points about AAPL. I bought AAPL at 128 about 2 weeks after Cramer said it had bottomed at 169 in mid- January. I sold it at around 165 in April. Cramer, like many of the recent nay-sayers on this blog...are full of crap. Sometimes you have to go with your gut...your instincts. "Experts" like Cramer have their own agenda. I'm more interested in my own agenda...and I trust my instincts more than I trust his. And my instincts are telling me that SIRI has a great future. It defies logic and business acumen to think SIRI and XM combined are worth less than they were apart. That's just good old horse sense talking. I may be proven wrong, but the odds are in our favor.
    2008 Aug 08 09:54 PM | Link | Reply
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    Mel will be on CNBC Monday at 1:30 as a guest on Mad Money hosted by Jim Cramer. Lets see if Cramer still thinks the common stock is worth ZERO.
    2008 Aug 08 11:19 PM | Link | Reply
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    Cramer is a coward. He'll kiss Mel's ass while he's on the 1:30 show and trash him on the evening show. I've lost what little respect I had for Jim Cramer. He's a showman...a clown...owned by GS. Nothing more.


    On Aug 08 11:19 PM mgn wrote:

    > Mel will be on CNBC Monday at 1:30 as a guest on Mad Money hosted
    > by Jim Cramer. Lets see if Cramer still thinks the common stock is
    > worth ZERO.
    2008 Aug 08 11:23 PM | Link | Reply
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    Freep, you dont even need your gut anymore. The numbers have been telling the story, look at the last several quarters the revenues from the new subs have almost all been going to the bottum line. They would have been FCF positive this year all be it because they pushed back the 2008 launch to 2009 (satellite cost that VicDave Had called a Red Haring, and meaningless). We would have seen that all the while being a stand alone company and having their hands tied by the merger along with a economic down turn. After this first 6 to 9 months we will be laughing at people like Cramer, Mark W., and the rest of the morons that put this company and Mel down. I have to admit I did not hear the conference call I read it, and I saw the slap Mel gave to Mark W. When he basically told him, look we went from 79 million loss to a 24 million loss YOY EBITDA and I am saying that we will have at least 400 million in savings next year, the math is not that hard to do, figure it out. Of course that was my take from it, just from what I read.
    2008 Aug 09 12:31 AM | Link | Reply
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    I am, and for some time have been, invested in this company and intend to continue doing so. I use the word "invested" deliberately. Any purchase of stock in a company in its infancy like this is, especially given the challenges it was going to have to meet to get here, just to turn a quick buck, is not an investment, but a gamble. Not all stock gambling needs to be foolish, but it still remains a gamble, because it turns not on the natural development and intrinsic value of a business, but instead on how one guesses other, basically speculative players like themselves, will perceive a company's immediate value in the near term. But many of us are not gamblers. Our analysis tells us this company will have lasting and significant value, and we intend to be there as that comes to fruition. The company's prospects for success, particularly in a global market, are and have always been enormous. I could be wrong, of course, but I doubt it. So I would recommend Gamblers Anonymous to those who are in this as a quick roll of the dice, because the rush from buying and selling a stock like this is probably not too different then what you would experience at a blackjack or roulette table. To the rest of us who have always been in for the long haul, the only facts that have changed since we analyzed this situation long ago are the many steps that Karmazin and his counterparts at XM have actually achieved, and continue to achieve, toward the goal of this company becoming an important media giant: great talent, programming, a steadily increasing subscriber and listener base, steadily growing cash flow, continuing cost efficiencies, an ever-broadening and potentially worldwide market, an elimination of the potential for dilution in that market, etc. Not too bad, and if the analysts don't get that yet, all the better for the rest of us.
    2008 Aug 09 12:43 AM | Link | Reply
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    Ratamacue.....thank you for summing up nice and neatly the reasons for my "Investing" in this company. "The company's prospects for success, particularly in a global market, have always been enormous"
    2008 Aug 09 07:29 AM | Link | Reply
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    163888, You are tireless. Thanks for fighting the good fight.
    2008 Aug 09 07:30 AM | Link | Reply
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    Freep, thank you for adding a "vision of success" to our thoughts and some good 'ole "Horse Sense" to add color and depth to the vision.
    2008 Aug 09 07:42 AM | Link | Reply
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    Scott's Slant, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for VicDave's 5 star recommendation, but that was a nice try at getting him to commit and contribute at the same time.
    2008 Aug 09 07:45 AM | Link | Reply
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    ghostofSerious, By the time I got here you were already gone.....
    2008 Aug 09 07:47 AM | Link | Reply
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    Scot here. I agree cos1000; I shouldn't hold my breath in waiting for a response from Mr. Vicar. But, somehow I think he will come through. In his bid in trying to convince others that he is somehow blessed with a wealth of learned knowledge that the rest of us seem to lack, than indeed, he would be the Vicar that he holds himself out to be if he shares that knowledge. And if he doesn't come through and lets me down, than I suppose that whomever bestowed the title upon the Vicar will feel betrayed as well where Mr. Vicar would prove himself to be an unwise and unfaithful servant....

    And oh, I almost forgot: Mr. Vicar, if you are reading this, there is an elementary proverbial rule akin to the 10 commandments: If you don't use that which you possess, you have sinned: In this case, it is knowledge. Share it. One catch though: No cheating: You've clearly expressed your opinion regarding SiriusXM; It's time to explore other areas of opportunity without facts, figures, nuts, bolts, bailing wire or whatever else binds your argument together. You know, Simple Simon sorts of stuff: Short yes or no answers, this company is good, buy, this company is bad, don't buy. It's an easy philosophy: Share that we may all prosper as a body of one....

    Scot's Slant

    2008 Aug 09 10:58 AM | Link | Reply
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    A lot of people giving the same pundint answeres to make them feel better about how they got robbed. Yes, you were victims of theft, criminal activity that violates existing SEC regulations. Dont make yourself feel better by responding the the reasons "they" say your stock is worth 1.32 today. We need to start a website, get around 10000 stockholders, and file a joint lawsuit against the banks that wrote the new debt, and acquired the shares to keep short. Heres the true story of this stock....

    1. Big money knew its going very high evenutally, post merger. They know they plans Sirius has in the future, and they agree with the potential. NO large institutional holder of this stock has sold. 70% owned by non floating shares(mutual fund, large holders,and institutions(mostly as a growth stock which is what it is)).

    2. The banks issuing 250 million short shares KNEW they wouldnt need to cover. Why it beat it back after every pop.

    3. After the DOJ announcement the stock performed as it should , it rose fast and within minutes was over 3.20 from around 2.70. It was going higher, but the shorts never cleared, only intensified.

    4.Bad article after bad article, after bad anaylist opinion comes out, the stock is shorted again, and they contain the damage.

    5. Martin backs the deal...This is the event here, actually. This gives around 99 percent chance of approval to everyone who has a clue. The stock jumped again, as it should have. Shorts didnt cover...Goldman analyist comes out right then and downgrades it, and trashes its value to 1.75(post merger, 1 dollar if it doesnt).Thats over a 100 percent disagreement with the market. Shorts intensify, stock plummets. Big bouncer holders think they might not get one now. Now everyone waits for the last bounce chance, the actual approval.

    6. It comes in doses to contain the price. This is manipulation in its finest. Lawsuit might contain the FCC as an agent of the manipulation. FCC, banks, and Sirius are working together now to keep the stock low, and make sure the shorts(big money is usually more short than long, everyone knows this) are satisfied.

    7. Sirius had the rules of refinancing long known(were going to need those 250 million shares.)
    8. Keep all this information from the investors, never even mention the possibility that the shares might be lent, and the pop will never come(until after Martin says yes, then you hear it constantly).

    9. The delayed conference call. It was delayed twice so shorts could still control the price, and get all the big money the shares all the THOUSANDS of margin players will have to sell. At max, you get 5 days to cover. Once this period was over, then they would release the report. Banks probably said, hey sirius, we need more time. The report was done, and since they didnt talk about the future, we now know that the delay was intentional, with possibly illegal intentions.

    10. The news of the refinancing was understated what it actually meant for the stock value. This was to make sure no one sold at 2.75, and bought again at 1.30. You see you cant have that, those shares arent for you, there for insiders only. How dare you try to make money.

    11. End game. One day out of the blue, with no warning you will hear a piece of catalysitic news that will gap the stock up, passing most triggered buys. This will phase out most small investors from value. Leaving the only way to make money on this stock now, as blind faith, which is what they want. Since most people wont hold a large amount of cash in a company on blind faith, they sell, or move on. There you go. Hold, dont sell, dont buy on margin, and you can beat the system. Every stock in the market has a game and a system and a timeline on when things can and will occur. You either get lucky, or you know what they know. Or you use blind faith. Happy investing, and listen to Tyler, just know he cant talk about the things I can.
    2008 Aug 09 12:30 PM | Link | Reply
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    O and by the way, the stock market in its entirety, is heavily naked shorted, more than you think, and its done mostly on offshore accounts and clearance houses, and the market makers. MOST money is made on the short side, not long. Thats the myth you can throw away. O and Jim Cramer.....Hes a naked short seller raider that got caught, and then ripped up his SEC subinea(spelling) on the air(you want to listen to this guy? Hes a crook.
    2008 Aug 09 12:36 PM | Link | Reply
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    Did the merger get turned down by the FCC, 18.5 million subscribers and growing. That turns to about 2.4Billion a year in cash, they'll have 20 million subscribers by the end of the year, what the heck is going on with this stock, the street should be going crazy about a company with this many subscribers. Their are to many salers, and not enough buyers, stop saling you jerks, why throw your money away and take a loss, keep it and itll go up when they turn a profit.
    2008 Aug 09 05:10 PM | Link | Reply
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    its selling not sailing, they are not on a boat.
    2008 Aug 09 05:20 PM | Link | Reply
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    Well when Mel calls retail investors unsophisticated, he is right. Look at it from his view point. He has people blaming him for their losses. They are the ones that sold for a loss or got involved in the margin on a speculative stock. Why would anybody sell SIRI now, after seeing the numbers from the last quarter, and him telling them he is going to save 400 million more next year and be FCF positive (except for CAPEX cost) and be 300 million positive in EBITDA by next year. To sell now, is foolish to say the least. What he is saying is if you are that dumb that you cant put 2 and 2 together, and sell your shares in SIRIXM now, then you are unsophisticated, and I would agree with him.


    Listen I have been in this stock long enough that I have seen it trade in a channel of .85 to 1.15 for some time. I have seen it go as low as 60 cents all the way past 9 dollars. There is one thing I am confedent of and can guarantee, that they are much much better off now then they were back then.


    Now as for the asinine idiots that want to listen to people like VicDave and sell because they think it is going bankrupt, that is on them and noone else. As I have always said you lose nothing or you have made nothing until the stock is sold. For example I could have been 90,000 dollars richer if I did not stop selling at 8 and kept selling at 9. (that was my own greed) Now did I think at the time I made an extra 90,000 dollars at the time, NO, I did not because I did not sell it yet. Now have I lost 80,000 because I did not sell, no. I just lost that opportunity to make it. Have I lost anything when I started to buy back at 4 and lower, once again NO, not unless I sell the stock.

    Here is some information once again for the idiots that cant get it through their thick heads. The stock price, has little to do with weather they are going bankrutp or not. A perfect example is this company was trading at .60 cents and lower for about a year, 7 years ago and they are still in business today. The metrics are improving greatly and if you cant see that, then you deserve what you get. When you are pissing and moaning about how you missed the boat because you sold for a loss. Just remember, " I TOLD YOU SO". I usually wait to say that, but chances are you and people like VicDave will not be here to read it, so there it is.
    2008 Aug 09 06:48 PM | Link | Reply
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    163888, Unfortunately Mel is probable right about the lack of sophistication of the retail investor, but they have been his best support. With this stock retail investors make up a large percentage of the outstanding common share float. Lets see where we're at and the headwinds we have faced and face on the PR Front.

    1. Just about every reporter, blogger and analyst supporting Terestrial Radio and the Shorts is taking every opportunity to talk down the company and misrepresent the company's "stand alone" numbers, debt, and the auto industry's woes impact on SAT RAD. No combined #'s have even come out or have been accounted for and won't be for three months (end of the quarter plus one) November 1st about.

    2. The lack of a clear understanding of the recent XM debt refinancing and the collateral shares lent by SIRI has been great fodder for company opponents and has effectively destroyed the stock price in the short term. Weinkes, GS, has used it to now take the stock price target to a $1.00 and it seems that he is the only analyst that matters.

    3. Every Retail Investors' Guardian and Educator (and I say this facetiously), Jim Cramer, has turned on the company over the last two weeks supporting his buddies at Goldman Sachs. The same "Entertainer", when the stock price was $2.60 said the stock would most likely go to 4.50-5.00 after the merge is approved. He was equipped with the famous FCC "Watch" clock and everything. Day of the merger, he said it was a "$2.00 lottery ticket". GS must have got to him about the financing. Now to our hero SIRI is a three year story in the making with tremendous "Head Winds".

    4. The "stand alone" conference call and lack of a detailed plan outlining the future activities to increase revenue and decrease costs disappointed everyone. No one cared about the numbers. This conference call was a formality that ended Sirius Radio as we knew it. It was a "no win" meeting for Mel and Frear. A reiteration of the numbers already released as preliminary guidance for the new company. A lack luster performance, knowing that the guidance wouldn't be enough to satisfy anyone, but a required and necessary meeting just the same.

    5. What Merger? Did a Merger happen? Has anyone out there in the Media or Financial community spoken positively about the potential for this company as a unified audio entertainment and broadcasting media company. Why is that? Most reporting is done on Terestrial Radio, Network TV, or Ad Sponsored News and Magazine Print. Hence the merger falls to these blogs for discussion.

    This story has not been told by anyone, except the company itself and it can't give us or the media the details. Until plans for generating increased revenue in the short and long term, plans for merging of its spectrum (channel offerings), plans for retail marketing strategies and the Fall packages, the plans for employee reduction and other "back office" cost cutting are finalized, they cannot present them.

    They wanted and expected Mel and Frear to stand up and tell everyone about "layoffs", while they are being decided and planned so that they actually save money. Employee payroll is a large expense, with a large opportunity for cost savings when done correctly. Employee placement, benefit continuation, consolidating the correct positions are not to be handled casually if they are to be successful. This is what is most likely being done first, hence the town meetings and confidentiality related to the action. It will have an immediate impact on the bottom line and can be easily projected YOY for a direct cost cutting impact.

    Employee related expenses, advertising, sales, and marketing expenses, and the additional $4 revenue for "Best of Both" will impact this year, 4th quarter, and will be given as revised guidance after "Labor Day".

    The last six months have seen growth in Institutional and Mutual Fund Investors of 2.2%. There has been rotation but an increase interest just the same. Institutional investors represent a mere 33% of shares held and 34% of the Float. The turn over is relatively slow with these investor groups. The biggest investor churn is the Retail Investor who buys and sells this stock every day. With all of the negative news, and an increase in short positions, Cramer and Weinkes outlook, it is no wonder that retail investors on their own are frightened by what they hear and sell at the wrong time.

    If you were in it for the pop, it never happened thanks to Cramer, the spin on the Debt Refinancing, Weinkes and all the shorts who are in control of this stock in the short term. Most longs are all in and have little control over the stock price. Now is the time for patience not panic. If you were in on margin, look to yourself and the outline above for your woes. If your a Long and you have waited all this time, when the plans start hitting the street, the stock will start to move up, slowly. The analysts will, just as quickly as Cramer, change their opinions and get on the bus. They will have an outstanding 4th quarter, not reported until Feb 09, when I believe the stock will gain positive momentum. That's not to say that there won't be modest gains after the guidance revision in September and again after the 3rd quarter.

    Just my thoughts on all this. It felt good to get it out.
    2008 Aug 09 09:36 PM | Link | Reply
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    relmor - I think I understand that the shorts new they could cover with the 250 million new shares being put out there. What I don't understand was that I though the new shares were being sold at $1.50 per share. How then does it make sense to short the stock down this low ($1.30)?
    You seem to have more inside knowledge about stocks and how the system works than most on here. Any idea when the end game comes? This week? This month? This year? What range do you think it will go to?
    2008 Aug 10 07:39 AM | Link | Reply
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    RReagan, the "lent shares" that Sirius lent to XM for refinancing was so that Hedge Funds, the usual buyers of the XM offered notes, could "Hedge" against their purchase of the notes. They were lent at the time by Sirius because SIRI stock was on the REG SHO list which meant shares "WERE NOT" available on the open market for shorting in the Hedge Funds arbitrage play. The arbitrage play was that they buy the Notes and short Sirius against the note. These shares, SIRI, were lent to stimulate the selling of the notes to refinance the XM debt. The shares lent are not available to open market shorts, which is why this lending of shares is not considered dilutive. Without the shares XM may not have been able to make their refinancing deal attractive to potential buyers, and the merger deal would have been further delayed. All of these shares come back to Sirius XM Radio when the notes mature or they are refinanced prematurely by the company.
    2008 Aug 10 09:30 AM | Link | Reply
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    RReagan, Further, the price of the shares at the time was set at 1.50 for the purpose of the "Short" transaction. Again this, because of analysts and wall street in general, misrepresenting the "Lent Shares" set the current open float price almost instantly at 1.50. The price of the stock today is being controlled by open market pressures, longs selling of their positions, and shorts more than willing to participate in the panic. It has very little to do with the lending of Siri shares to refinance XM debt.
    2008 Aug 10 09:35 AM | Link | Reply
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    www.financialsense.com... naked shorts crime of the century ....long interview , but worth the time .....click the media player on the page
    2008 Aug 10 11:58 AM | Link | Reply
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    cos1000, I agree with what you are saying. What I am saying is that I dont care what the reason is, why it is being pushed down. The metrics show a different story, then the stock price. So my point is there is only so long that they or what, are going to be able to keep the price down. That is why I think, Mel said what he said. he expected investors to be able to at least see the metrics for what they are, and not be afraid and sell because of emotion of a stock price. That is after all, unsophisticated. I mean I thought he could have said dumb a$$es. So he was a little more kind then I would have been. Look at it this way, I have said it how many times already, put it in as simple terms as I could. It does not get any clear then what I have said, The company is in terrific shape moving forward. Yet we still have people believing in people like VicDave (how many times have I showed him to be wrong and lied). You dont get more unsophisticated then that. Like I have said before I have gotten to the point were I dont care if they sell and leave. Out with the old (short term longs) in with the new. You and some others and myself will be here to weather the storm. I consider what I made off the two in 2005 to be small potatos, compared to what we will make in the next few years. God help me, I love it.
    2008 Aug 10 03:07 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The Vicar enjoys your clever slant, Scot's Slant. However, The Vicar has his own proverbial rule: Give a man a fish, you feed him for a day. Teach him to fish, and you feed him for life.

    That said, The Vicar enjoys sharing knowledge, but he does not convey specific stock recommendations for free. If he did, the recommendations would have no value themselves, and they would do you a disservice by not teaching you to identify them yourself. However, he offers these guidelines for individual investors to use for screening high quality stocks:

    Companies with high ROE (above 10%)

    Companies with healthy and increasing free cash flow (and cash from operations as a % of revenue)

    Companies with healthy balance sheets that are not so weighted down with debt that the present value of the debt approaches or exceeds the present value of all future cash flows. Look for max 30-40% debt to equity.

    Reasonable valuation relative to growth. P/E at or below its forecasted growth rate.

    Consistently growing sales and expanding operating profit margins.

    A business model that allows it to keep competitors at bay and earn outsized returns over an extended period.

    A business model that gives the company significant pricing power over both suppliers and customers.

    Porter's Five Forces matrix is an effective screener as well, as it incorporates some of The Vicar's own guidelines.

    Scot's Slant, The Vicar also suggests that you read widely the usual compliment of investment literature out there, including books and magazines. The Vicar recommends Jeremy Siegal's "Stocks for the Long Run" as well as Malkiel's "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" among others.

    There is a direct correlation between the amount of relevant reading you do, and the soundness of your investment decisions. The business section of your local library has most of these materials, including newsletters, for free.

    The Vicar recommends avoiding any title with Jim Cramer's picture on it, or any other media caricature for that matter. He would also steer clear of books with gratuitous titles such as "Donald Trump Wants You To Be Rich" or the word "rich" in the title. These books are feel-good reads, but they will not contribute incrementally to your knowledge base. Look for the books with steak rather than sizzle. You only have 25,000 days, so why waste one reading meaningless books?
    2008 Aug 10 03:24 PM | Link | Reply
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    163888 The fact that you feverishly search out and paste my prior posts in a pathetic attempt to discredit me smacks of a simmering desperation that suggests you are not completely confident in your assertions of this company's investment merits.

    This battle has been fought and won. It is now time for you to fall in line, and join the others in acknowledging the soundness of my advice and input. Continued attempts to discredit me will simply compromise your already meager standing with others.
    2008 Aug 10 03:52 PM | Link | Reply
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    Ok cos1000, so when in your estimation does the panic by the longs end? What do you think the real value of the SIRI shares should be at this time (maybe $2.5 - $3 per share) and when do you think it will get to that price?
    2008 Aug 10 04:04 PM | Link | Reply
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    163888, I agree its all getting a little ridiculous. Look at the VicDave response above. No stock recommendation, just more of the same. Look at the response from RReagan after giving him a concise explanation of the shares lent for XM's debt refinance he only wants to no when will the pain stop and how fast will it get where he wants it to go. I'm not mixing the "kool-aid" he's been drinking. I'm just trying to lay out some of the facts rather than the misrepresentations that have been spewed out there about all the dilution in shares. Thanks to Homer on SiriusBuzz I understand the concept, but if you read "relmor" above he makes it sound like anyone could borrow those shares. The shares were "Lent" to the brokerage houses selling the XM notes. The pain will stop when so called longs stop dumping shares and investors start looking at the numbers that your talking about.
    2008 Aug 10 05:05 PM | Link | Reply
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    RReagan, if you read what I wrote above, the stock will move after detail is revealed after Labor Day. Make no mistake though, this stock and company is under attack by the shorts. A longs only defense is to not sell their stock. "Naked Shorting" is real and the SEC doesn't give a shit while its going on. "Reg Sho" lists are a joke when it comes to Sirius.
    2008 Aug 10 05:14 PM | Link | Reply
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    163888, And this is why you and I have a hard time listening to The Vicar of Value when he advises "Longs" on SIRI when he is not invested in now or has he ever been. This is part of the attack that Sirius XM stock and the company is under. Right from another misrepresenter's article on Barrons written by Eric Savitz an author picked up at times by Seeking Alpha titled:
    SIRI: BIG DILUTION FROM STK OFFER: MARKET CAP EVAPORATION
    Posted by Eric Savitz

    It’s game over for stockholders. 17% dilution in a single day, and possibly more to come. Combine with the price caps, the incredible debt service costs, and the fact that profits are still years away….is there any reason to own this stock anymore? Those who hold it now are delusional. Forget the analysts and bloggers - just read the financials, do the math yourself, sell your shares, and buy an index fund. You’ll make more money.
    Comment by Vicar of Value - July 29, 2008 at 3:10 pm
    2008 Aug 10 06:39 PM | Link | Reply
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    163888, Picture a Carnival "Barker", top hat, striped pants, megaphone, when you read the VicDave 7/29/08 comment above.
    2008 Aug 10 07:32 PM | Link | Reply
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    cos1000 - I am not drinking the kool aid. I, like so many others, just believed the pundits that the 2 companies when merged would be better than just one. Its a great product too. Unfortunately, I got into something with shorts, naked shorts, and other stuff that I didn't understand. It just didn't seem to be that complicated and lots of people, including Tyler and Cramer, broke it down very well and made it sound like a good bet. Now I am way down with an average cost around $2.90 so I am kind of stuck without an understanding of which way to go. It makes sense to hold but my gut feeling says this stock is in for another rough week.
    2008 Aug 10 10:16 PM | Link | Reply
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    RReagan, I'm not trying to be unsympathetic. This is more downside that any of us who have studied this company, SIRI, and XM before the merge, ever expected. This IS what you read and hear about when you hear folks talk about BEAR attacks on a company. The numbers always show a better picture than where the Shorts / Bears take the stock price before building it back or in the rare occasion, taking it out (bankruptcy). It is not a surprise that Weinkes, GS is so negative. What is surprising is that he seems to be leading the charge, and with a heavy RETAIL Investor base, Cramer isn't helping at all. Cramer is also a Goldman Sachs, bought and paid for, "Friend". The potential upside is enormous, the downside now is very limited. If the small retail investor falls prey, no one will notice. All I'm saying is don't become prey.
    2008 Aug 10 10:44 PM | Link | Reply
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    RReagan, Now for my opinion. If you have read the financial reports of this company you know that subscribers have increased, subscription acquisition costs have decrease, overall expenses have decreased and revenues have increased. This trend is not ending tomorrow with the merged company. If anything the revenue will grow faster than if they were competing, and more significantly, the costs will decrease substantially, resulting in cash flow positive and profitability sooner.

    The opponents of this stock will use Retail Sales and ARPU (Average Revenue Per Unit) as negative metrics against the combined company over the next few months until people understand what these numbers really mean.

    First Retail Sales decreasing as related to the auto industry only. It should decrease as penetration into the auto market increases and with each year of SATRAD's existence (163888 has said this repeatedly). Common Sense. Also it leaves a growing untapped used car market with SATRAD radios installed already and a lower SAC, currently an untapped market bringing more revenue to the bottom line. Now outside the auto industry the new combined company should come out with a whole new product line around interoperability, the home and walk around market to name a few. This is not even in current metrics for revenue growth. End result decreasing retail related to autos and increasing retail related to "other product" lines. End result will most likely mean increased revenue not measured yet from retail sales. All you will hear from analysts is that there have been DECREASED RETAIL SALES showing a decline in interest for SATRAD.

    From Weinkes ARPU needs to be consistent before he can be positive on the company. He doesn't say for how long nor does he indicate what number or range that would represent. Decreases in ARPU would first appear to mean that the margin is falling off if looked at in isolation of subscriber / subscription mix and whether or not subscriber growth is increasing. As more subscription tiers become available, the varied pricing will change this metric completely with the new company. There will not be an apples to apples comparison moving forward. Analysts who want to put a negative spin will simply state that the ARPU went down reflecting a huge negative. This clearly will not be the case. The variety of subscriptions will bring in entry level customers who will sample the product and either stay with it, add more, or churn at current rates. Either way regardless of ARPU as long as the subscriber base is growing the revenue is growing.

    Having said what I believe to be what will be used against the Stock Price in the short term, there is no reason to sell this stock now. If you had some money to dollar cost average, now would be a good time to do that. If not, by the end of this year we should be back to the 2.50 - 2.80 range. That's conservative. With what we're going through right now, and oh yeah, the lack of Clarity from the company (another big negative soon to go away), I'd be happy with that by years end. As I said above when the 4th quarter is reported in February 2009, the stock, the analysts, will have positive momentum with much clearer guidance and understanding of the company's potential. Just my humble, and yes, hopeful opinion. I am and have been long this stock for many years. I have dollar cost averaged down throughout this blood letting. I am looking to retire when this stock matures in 2010-2011 or when the company is sold.



    2008 Aug 10 11:36 PM | Link | Reply
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    Everyone, and especially cos1000, and 163888.............. {sound of clapping}!!!!!!!!!!!!!... I am putting this article and it's comments at the head of the list in my favorites for continuous future reference. BRAVO........ Rest well my friends..... Keep your blades close tonight. The battle continues tomorrow.
    2008 Aug 11 12:32 AM | Link | Reply
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    cos1000, VicDave has proven once again not to make sense. He first says I am lying about him. So when I use his own words to prove that he has no clue what he is talking about and that he has lied. He then says that makes me the desperate one. I have news for him, I will not put up with people that lie on a constant basis and if they are wrong then I call them on it. He says I am mad about my investment. I ask ahybody to show me one statement that shows I have been mad in anyway about this stock I invested in. cos1000 you have seem most statements I have posted and know pretty much how much I have made on this stock already do you think anybody that has made that much on a stock would be mad at how it does. VicDave as I said makes no sense. He tries to deflect his dishonesty by blaming others that have shown his dishonesty. VicDave has got to be one of the worst debaters I have seen. I give him facts, he comes back with more words that he cant back up with the truth or fact.
    2008 Aug 11 12:59 AM | Link | Reply
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    I will once again show that VicDave has no clue of what he is talking about. He first said this:


    The Vicar
    of Value
    Aug 08 03:00 PM163888: My commentary is more intelligent than your investment choices. I never said this co. would go bankrupt.



    He then said this:


    The Vicar
    of Value
    Aug 10 03:52 PM163888 The fact that you feverishly search out and paste my prior posts in a pathetic attempt to discredit me smacks of a simmering desperation that suggests you are not completely confident in your assertions of this company's investment merits.

    This battle has been fought and won. It is now time for you to fall in line, and join the others in acknowledging the soundness of my advice and input. Continued attempts to discredit me will simply compromise your already meager standing with others.


    Now I feel if someone lies on something and when you call them on it and they say it still is not true. What else is a person to do but repost that persons last comments. That is what a intelligent person does. because then there is no place for that person to hide, and you VicDave have no place to hide. If you dont like having your own words used against you, then stop posting, or at the vary least stop lying. Dont blame me for making you look like a fool, blame yourself, those are your words I used not mine. Then only a fool would ask me to prove you wrong again, after I have done it so many times before. Finally the only people that believe in what you say VicDave are the other fools that got cought in the margin or sold for a loss, those fools wont be here long. There most likely the same fools that thought that the stock was going to be 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9 after the merger also.

    2008 Aug 11 01:27 AM | Link | Reply
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    cos1000 - Thanks, you have helped put this in perspective for me.
    2008 Aug 11 07:07 AM | Link | Reply
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    163888 You notice that no one is responding to your pathetic re-posts of my prior entries. It's time for you to give this a rest, 163888. The Vicar joins the other readers of this board in calling on you to fade into the background where you belong. You've made your point, and it has fallen on deaf ears. It's time for you to move on.
    2008 Aug 11 09:13 AM | Link | Reply
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    Your posting of my prior entries, 163888, is a backhanded compliment. You notice no one is re-posting your own entries. They aren't worth reading twice. Mine obviously are, and they resonate with you. Why else would you go to such great lengths to try to discredit another contributor to this dialogue?
    2008 Aug 11 09:19 AM | Link | Reply
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    VicDave, I've been listening to what 163888 has to say. As far as the dialogue goes, it started with Tyler's article talking about the Used Car Market and satellite radio. And then you saying this:

    Vicar
    of Value
    Aug 08 01:52 PM
    No one here has mentioned the admonitions of The Vicar. He told you there was no upside. How many times did he repeat this?

    and this:

    Vicar of Value
    August 8, 3:35PM
    163888 you're fabricating distortions about my statements in order to distract attention from the fact that you have egg on your face. You can't and won't admit that The Vicar was right. This is why you lost money on SIRI. You choose what you want to believe, then you select facts that support your belief. Le pauvre bete.

    Need I go on? I fail to see your contribution to the "Dialogue" :(
    2008 Aug 11 09:49 AM | Link | Reply
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    RReagan, No problem, let's hope the madness stops with Mel on Cramer's interview today at 1:30 pm on CNBC.
    2008 Aug 11 09:51 AM | Link | Reply
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    The blind SIRI longs are almost cult like and will never sell their shares. They will hold it down till a nickle if the shorts decide to take it that far. Should be an interesting pissing contest over the next few months.
    2008 Aug 11 04:51 PM | Link | Reply
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    VicDave, once again if you dont like looking like a fool then I suggest you stop posting. I am only using your own words to show this. You are the one that makes yourself look dumb.


    Second I see you from your other comment, you now think it is a compliment. You dont have to worry I will keep complimenting you. I will make sure you are complimented everytime.
    2008 Aug 11 07:55 PM | Link | Reply
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    okay as i read all the info which, u guys shared...thanks a lot really its helped me to have it or not...thanks..

    ======================...

    Used cars
    2008 Nov 03 12:55 AM | Link | Reply