Why Visa Got Spanked

While Visa (V) just released stellar performance numbers, the stock tanked to the surprise of many. The arguments have been many as to the positives of the Visa model. The arguments have included that Visa is recession proof, Visa is not affected by financial liability, Visa has strong international growth, and many others. While these arguments are true in their individual standings, they look at Visa from the micro perspective, as if Visa is bullet proof to the macro problems facing the economies today.

Yes, Visa is a great model. Yes, Visa in the long run should do very well. But the many that were boasting of great stock value in this failing economy failed to give value to the way the market and Wall Street operate.

First, and very unfairly, Visa is grouped with the financials. As the financials go, so does Visa. This despite the fact that Visa is strictly a fee processor and takes no risk or liability. But Wall Street, despite stellar earnings, had a number of reservations about the future of Visa in this lagging economy.

Let's look in detail at what spooked Wall Street to not reward Visa. First, the number of credit card defaults is rising. This will reduce the number of new transactions couple with less availability of new credit card carriers. This problem, unfortunately, is projected to get much worse and with it the consumer will have reduced dollar limits of their credit cards.

Second, Visa has profited from increased use of debit cards. This has been their savior and should continue to provide stellar results. But Wall Street is concerned with potential litigation that may reduce debit fee charges. Sprinkle in the continued financial defaults, increased liabilities, massive losses, and a housing problem that seems to have no end, and as unfair as it may be, Visa got spanked.

Has Wall Street been fair with Visa? Absolutely not. But then again, there are other stocks which recently beat estimates by wide margins and have not been rewarded, such as the agricultural fertilizer sector and coal. Why? Because again, in its illogical way of doing things, Wall Street only rewards commodities if oil is going much higher and the specter of inflation provides a safe haven. So, great stocks such as Agrium (AGU) and Massey (MEE) have been beaten down without justification.

Why have I made these arguments? Because reading many blogs, and especially one claiming 'Visa winners' as a slogan, rejoiced in the invincibility of Visa before second quarter earnings without adequate analysis as to the many pitfalls affecting and infecting this market. Visa will see $100 but not this year as many projected.

Disclosure: Long Visa

Comments

[investor88:]

Spot on analysis on Visa. Price behaviour in the near term and long term fundamentals are different things and need not be in lock step.

2008 Aug 08 09:36 AM

[Gaucho420:]

I think the fact that retailers such as Target, Walmart and others reporting lower sales is having a drastic effect. Visa had bucked the financials low trends until recently, but now the slowing economy is bearing on its shares as the fear of less transaction and the current market sentiment takes over.

I had bought some Visa in the mid to low $60s a few months back and may buy some more here if we test those levels again.

Good article.

2008 Aug 08 09:50 AM

[Jake Blues:]

This is a pretty even handed article. Well done.

2008 Aug 08 09:59 AM

[User 172125:]

Frank- you are wrong about one thing:

Visa Winners DID disclose risk - and is simply a forum for Visa investors. We put the information out there and let people make their own decisions.

But since you chose to insult our blog- Let's take a look at your track record:

You were pitching IPI to "only go up" at 75$ a share when I was not only warning people of the coming commodities correction- and the fact that IPI was a bunch of recycled mines and is not a Potash or Mosaic. Since then IPI is $44 (down $30).

At 140$ a barrel- you were saying that "oil is only going to go up"- and I was warning people that a correction was due- if, for no other reason- than demand destruction.

With commodities prices peaking across the board in ag, metals, and oil- you were, again proclaiming that "commodities prices were only go up" while I was warning people that we would experience a sharp reversal and that the entire sector was overbought and overpriced.

Visa IS NOT A FINANCIAL- but, again this shows just how little you know about the stock.

In short- since I have known you every single claim you made has been WRONG!

But again, Seeking Alpha has a history of letting anyone with a computer post an article.

2008 Aug 08 10:05 AM

[PELUSIN:]

as usuall good to explain why the drop, but never to write whats going to happen

am i right frank?

2008 Aug 08 10:59 AM

[User 172125:]

Since Frank- attempted to discredit our blog- I am taking the liberty to re-post some of his earlier 'brilliant' observations- note the date- and note the fact that I contradicted each and every one of his flimsy arguments:

Friday, July 11, 2008
One Member's View on Petrohawk (Frank Maura Post)

The independent oil and nautral gas companies have prosper in this market. Many have double and tripled in a matter of months. One of my favorites among many has been PetroHawk. While it has an outragously high P/E, P/E going forward should be much better.

But with oil creeping close to 150 and higher it is one of a few plays right now. So far for me, I bought at 33 and it is close to 50. I predict it will eventually hit 65 or better. But that is just my prediction and I could be wrong. Do your own analysis and decide.

(Frank recommending a BUY at 140 + oil)

Saturday, July 12, 2008 (Frank Marau Post

One Member's Pessimistic Views on Q2 and Q3.


Wow. IndyMac is taken over by the Feds. We really need to put our minds together for a viable game plan in the second half because things are REALLY going to get scary. Here is what may happen:

Much higher oil prices
Increase commodity prices
The Dow below 9000
Gold above 1000
A winter never seen before (higher fuel costs)


Here is Frank - a month ago, again pitching higher commodity and oil and gold prices.

Wednesday, July 9, 2008 (Frank Maura Post)
Visa and Commodities Rule!!!

Great upgrades for coal and potash. Getting back profits lost. Volatile market but what isn't in this schizoid market.


VISA LONG AND STRONG
COMMODITIES LONG AND STRONG
Frank - again pitching fertilizer cos, and commodities (while I was warning people against it)

Tuesday, July 1, 2008 (Frank Maura Post)
Why commodities will be a play for at least a year

Here are points to consider:
Financials will be a mess for at least a year
Oil will continue to rise, especially with Israeli/Iran tensions
Inflation will continue to rise
Most will flock to commodities as a safe haven
The dollar continues to weaken
The beaten down sectors will be a bargain and will rise again in about a year or so. But commodities rise is simply not just a speculative issue. Many forces have finally caught up with the laws of supply and demand, and commodities rise is a factor of population growth, rising third world countries wanting their own piece of the pie, poor planning for alternative fuels, and Middle Eastern oil supply concerns.
The financials, housing, and credit sectors will take at least one more year to recover. I see commodities as the best hedge on inflation problems and great investment opportunities. In other sectors, I only own Visa, the safest play in a recession.

Frank- telling people on July 1- that they should buy commodities and oil.

I could go on and on....but check it out for yourselves. He was pitching IPI as if it was gold-

He was posting on my blog as Knightowl1953

Each and evey time he would post or comment I would correct him which you can see for yourself by checking out my blog. One thing about the internet there is no running from your earlier posts Frank. Any more insults Frank??

2008 Aug 08 12:03 PM

[MattD:]

Technical analysis says there is rational and irrational behavior factors involved with buying and selling. That being said some of the sell off is irrational. The fundamental analysis is sound for V and in the long run macro trends will show growth that management forecasts.

2008 Aug 08 12:05 PM

[User 68127:]

There are good arguments to be made fundamentally for both sides of the Visa trade. Regardless of fundamentals, Visa is a momentum stock.

EVERY stock has a bull case and a bear case. People have been buying this one (and trumpeting the bull case) mainly because it has been going up. That is what momentum investors do. The valuation has become rich. Some of the bear case is starting to become noticed.

You cannot ignore a huge run-up (which sets aside the rich valuation and risks), as if it is "normal" and then decry a sell-off as if it is "unfair."

When you run with the fast money crowd, sometimes you make fast money, and sometimes you get burned. The selloff is no more irrational than the run up.

2008 Aug 08 12:56 PM

[mrbill for V:]

Frank: Good point of view, of course V Winner is going to straighten us all
out. This is the man that knows it all.

2008 Aug 08 01:01 PM

[Vox Rationalis:]

"...there are other stocks which recently beat estimates by wide margins and have not been rewarded, such as the agricultural fertilizer sector and coal. Why? Because again, in its illogical way of doing things, Wall Street only rewards commodities if oil is going much higher..."

No, because "Wall Street" is aware that past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Those commodities stocks had huge quarters - so what? Everybody knew that was coming. What has changed is the expectation of future commodities prices, and therefore the expected future profits of the companies that produce and deal in them.

2008 Aug 08 01:33 PM

[HT5:]

V-Winner, please read Frank's article. How many times you gonna say that V is not a financial? V is a financial because Wall Street says so. Wall Street makes the rules and what you say doesn't mean anything. You were so bold to say that V would never fall below $75.00 and predicted it would see $100 before end of summer. Wall Street beat the price of V down without your blessing because they can. Sure, Wall Street is illogical just as Frank says. In other words, Wall Street walks the walk, and your babble is just talk.

2008 Aug 08 02:46 PM

[san mateo sam:]

to V naysayers may I say "Parting is such sweet sorrow"

2008 Aug 08 03:50 PM

[User 172125:]

Ok- guys I thought I was out but you sucked me back in.......

Ok- mr. bill i don't know it all- FAR FROM IT. I'll tell you one of my mistakes this year- shorting oil twice and missing the target (once at 110 and again at 125). OK?? I don't know it all- but I never said I did. But even I wasn't foolish enough to tell people to rush into oil at 147, and I was entirely accurate about the price movement downaward eventually as a result of demand destruction. I also warned people about the commodities correction (although long-term I am VERY bullish on all resource sectors).

HT5- You guys keep saying that V got spanked and beat down yet the stock went public less than 5 months ago and is close to 30 dollars above its offer price !! Where is the beat down?? Why don't you take a look at the market across-the-board and tell me how many stocks have done better than that in the last 5 months?? V would have seen 100$ by the end of the summer had a 'perfect storm' of events not taken place in rapid succession. No financial model could have factored a 50 dollar first half increase in the price of crude- and a parabolic commodity move to all time highs in many ag, metals, and resources.

To those of you that want to understand why the co has not done better: WE ARE IN A BEAR MARKET!!

Lets put it this way- I would love to hear from anyone on this board that didn't play tech/banking/oil/ag/co... the wrong way this year. But what I'm saying about our friend the author is that 90% of his opinions (including the one about my blog) have been wrong, but 90% of mine have been right.

As far as making money on V- I'm not writing about V because I have stopped trading the stock- simple as that. I am taking advantage of the intra-cycle resource sector because one thing Frank and I do agree on is the long term potential of resources (our disagreement is on timing). But when I did trade V- it was a no-brainer. You could have been buying on dips and selling on rallies - and taking profits on each 5 dollar swing ALL DAY LONG>>> without the risk of the floor dropping out from underneath you (like an IPI)- (and that is exactly what I did).

Bottom line- If someone takes a whack at me - I'll defend myself. Thats it. Frank's article simply is not accurate.

2008 Aug 08 08:48 PM

[spc4l:]

c'mon HT5, at least V winner had guts to put out some prediction, no one know what is going to be for stock so what if the man were wrong once, but he was right many time, he is our leader who share his wisdom and times, you should just read and appreciate his knowledge, then trade on your own,

2008 Aug 09 04:48 AM

[montag:]

Yikes,

Frank you had me until you decided to get Catty with another blog. Now you opened the door to your own miserable track record. No ones an expert!!

2008 Aug 09 05:34 AM

[tipalia:]

opposite views and opinions is the essence of what makes a market.
For someone to buy he/she must find someone who is willing to sell.
I always enjoy reading everyone s opinions,agree or disagree.It is also true that I prefer that they tell us where they think a certain stock is going short and long term and the reasons behind it. What happened to that stock in the past is not to be ignored but don t stop there. Tomorrow is another day and let s all spend our energy in a constructive way.

2008 Aug 09 10:11 AM

[Visit:]

I am willing to bet that V pays for MY house within 5 years. V is without a doubt the BEST single investment anyone with half a brain can make. I own 1000 shares and will NOT let go.

2008 Aug 09 11:26 AM

[User 183867:]

The only reason Visa has come down is due to a change in expectations. All the other stuff you're taking about above is total nonsense. Expectations have diminished somewhat because emerging markets are growing more slowly, which diminishes the NPV of the company since that's biggest driver of future value creation. This diminishes the stock price -- it's very simple.

Anyone with half a brain can figure out this is a wonderful business, but the stock market's not dumb, either, and it has priced in some very high expectations. There are enough people who actually have half a brain that believe everyone else possesses a quarter brain that this has been bid up to full value. Only if you believe there is no risk in this business (only the jackasses focus on the credit risk straw-man argument; there is plenty of regularly risk and customer concentration risk) would you believe 35 to 40 times earnings allows for excess returns in the future.

2008 Aug 09 03:14 PM

[InvestBaboo:]

Everyone here agrees V is a long term winner. The debate is about the short term. The short term is continuously influenced by a number of macro economic variables such as the price of oil, leading economic growth indicators, inflation, the credit and housing situation, dollar's strength or weakness, etc. V more than others is influenced by these variables. Over the last several days a lot of these macro indicators have changed to the upside. What this means is that V Winner may turn out to be right even though he would off in his timeframe by a bit.

If the macro economic variables maintain their positive stride we could still see V at a hundred dollar by the end of this year.

2008 Aug 09 05:33 PM

[truthinvesting:]

Its going to take some time for everyone to find out at what price this stock belongs. It has the right trend but when management comes out with a IPO price who best knows the value of the company.The company HAS NOT been beat down but is up about 30% of the IPO price ina dead market.

2008 Aug 10 09:33 AM

[knightowl1953:]

Let me response to the insanity that is the Vwinner blog. First of all, I was open to the idea of this blog as it presented a great forum to bring Visa holders on a positive site. I took the blog with great interest and decided to make a contribution to the blog. But as I expressed my opinions and came to know Jon, it became very apparant that this blog was nothing more than thought control. If one did not voice opinions that were "in line" with Jon he was going to censore you. That is when I decided I did not want to contribute to what amounted to a propaganda site about Visa. I am a serious investor. But you cannot become enamore with a stock. If you do, it will kill you. As to Jon posting my blogs I am flattered. As many besides myself believe, commodities are the future. They will have cycles but they will come back with a vengence. What is Jon trying to proof? That just because commodities are briefly down the commodities are over? Nonsense. As far as IPI I believe this stock, being an initial offering, has been harshley treated. It has great earnings and will come back. And let's see, by Jon arguments I can also boast that Visa has been as high as 89 and as low as 66 recently. And you know what? It may go lower again when oil comes back. One more important thing, I leave you with an e-mail Jon wrote me as he so elenquotely said that the past comes back.........enjoy.......

Number noted-

I'm on the way out- but we are including a brokerage I used to own (36 years old)- and a number of content partners.

I have 1000s of pages of content for the site already-and it is pretty much preparation for the future.

One last thing- Frank; when I said you and I are more alike than you know- I meant it.

Just BETWEEN YOU AND ME- I believe what we are going through is a warm up to 2011/12 (which I think will DWARF our current problems).

But, Frank- its like Jack Nicholson said- most people can't handle the truth. We need to feed it to them in small doses or what we will scare people away.......

NOW- you know where I'm coming from.

One step at a time- the big picture- and THEN the solution.....

I would like to think i'm slightly smarter than I look

By the way, I lied to my first employer about my age and was a full registered rep at the age of 21 and a trainee at 20- So when I say that I've been in the game more than
half my life I'm not exaggerating.......

Have a nice day and will be in touch soon.

Jon


Empire State Ventures
110 Wall Street
11th Floor
New York, NY 10005
Office- (212)-709-8276
Cell- (917)-710-4770
E-mail- jonathan@empirestateve...
Website- empirestateventures.co...

-----Original Message-----
From: [e-mail] [mailto:KnightOwl1953@...
Sent: Thursday, July 10, 2008 01:49 PM
To: jonathan@empirestateve...
Subject: Fwd: Great Job


My number is 863-324-4939

----------------------...
From: KnightOwl1953
To: jonathan@empirestateve...
Sent: 7/10/2008 1:48:01 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time
Subj: Re: Great Job


Jon: Like I said, I am willing to help anyway I can. I had to retired early due to health issues, I am 54, but my mind still works. Here is a copy of my resume.

Regards,
Frank

In a message dated 7/10/2008 1:39:22 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time, jonathan@empirestateve... writes:
Frank- I actually owned a 100 person web company back in the 90s - we are simply going to be recycling knowledge and try to make a more professional forum than what is on the web already.

We will look forward to your involvement.

Jon


Empire State Ventures
110 Wall Street
11th Floor
New York, NY 10005
Office- (212)-709-8276
Cell- (917)-710-4770
E-mail- jonathan@empirestateve...
Website- empirestateventures.co...

-----Original Message-----
From: [e-mail] [mailto:KnightOwl1953@...
Sent: Thursday, July 10, 2008 01:33 PM
To: jonathan@empirestateve...
Subject: Re: Great Job

I would love to join and help anyway I can. I think you are on the right track.

Frank

In a message dated 7/10/2008 1:30:14 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time, jonathan@empirestateve... writes:
We would love to have your involvement in the new venture and do appreciate your input.

I think you can read between the lines.

Jon


Empire State Ventures
110 Wall Street
11th Floor
New York, NY 10005
Office- (212)-709-8276
Cell- (917)-710-4770
E-mail- jonathan@empirestateve...
Website- empirestateventures.co...

-----Original Message-----
From: [e-mail] [mailto:KnightOwl1953@...
Sent: Thursday, July 10, 2008 01:15 PM
To: jonathan@empirestateve...
Subject: Great Job

Keep it going V.

I think once you really get the new web site going you might eventually want to become incorporated and make it a business. With advertisers, professional services, etc.

Probably something you have in mind in the horizon.





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2008 Aug 10 04:25 PM

[knightowl1953:]

One more thing V, if you are going to insult me at least get the facts right. In the article I said that V is unfairly grouped with the financials. I never said V is a financial. Your problem is you think you know everything. There is an old saying that goes, "Everyone is my teacher so I can learn from them". You might want try try it one day. You might actually learn something new. And I did say I think V has a great model but the hyped I was reading on your blog prior to 2Q earnings may me feel sorry for the folks that thought that V was going much higher NOW in this mess of an economy.

2008 Aug 10 04:39 PM

[knightowl1953:]

HT5 thanks for the feedback. I am the first one here to say I DO NOT KNOW EVERYTHING. I MAKE MISTAKES and have made many, my first marriage for one.. But I do not tolerate someone selling a thought or an item without the benefit of opposiute views. Yes, I took offense when V decided not to publish my opinion on his web site when I said I was of the opinion V would not see 100 after earnings. He thought I was too "negative".

Peace. I am on the same boat as V....I own a large chunk of it...but I had NO EXPECTATIONS that V was going much higher in this mess of an economy...hence.....co...

2008 Aug 10 05:28 PM

[knightowl1953:]

Here is another lie by V. I never pitch for IPI to go beyond 75 and much higher. That is an outright lie. As a matter of fact, when I talked about IPI in your "blog" was after the bloodbath in commodities July 3rd. I simply made my choice to have the stock among others. I still believe this stock has a great future no different than you belief Visa will do great in this poor economy. Again, if you are going to attack me make sure you get your facts right.

2008 Aug 10 07:48 PM

[knightowl1953:]

One last statement and I am not going to waste my time with a guy that thinks he is God's gift to the financial markets. I really get a kick how V told the world why V would be great in this poor economy only to have to put his tail behind his butt and explain what had happended to V despite stellar earnings. It is easy for him to rationalize his arguments but he attacks others opinion. I love it. You want to listen to this guy be my guest. That's it for me. No more wasting my time on this foo.

2008 Aug 10 07:55 PM

[knightowl1953:]

OK one more for this fool. I am wrong 90 percent of the time? I was wrong that V would performed poorly after earnings? I was wrong to say commodities are the future? Yes, it is easy to argue about individual commodity stocks when the whole sector is down. Let's see if a month or two from now when oil goes up again and the stocks I discussed go much higher you will be saying the same thing. So it is ok for you to excuse Visa for poor performance after earnings because we are on a bear market but I guess i can't make the same argument for commodities now because oil is down? How convenient. One thing I can see about you is not only do you twist things around to make your point but you outright lie. Oh, one more thing. You say my article is not accurate about V?? You just gave me the argument by stating V is doing poorly because we are in a bear market. That is presicely my point!!!! You cannot look at V from a micro view. And I never said V is a financial. I said Wall Street sees Visa as a financial. So thank you for proving and agreeing with my article. Listen, just because you work on Wall Street does not make you "an expert".

2008 Aug 10 08:06 PM

[User 172125:]

Frank- You have PROVEN MY POINT- you are a NUT!

Whatever glimmer of credibility you may have had with anyone is now 100% out the window.

I don't know if anyone else has read your rambling, misspelled rantings- but you must have more than one screw loose....

For someone that claims to be a professional I would assume that you might actually be able to spell for starters !?

Anyone that wants to take a look at the past need not look any further than the blog: (Frank posted as Knightowl)

www.visawinners.com

They can take a look at your posts- and then take a look at how I constantly had to correct you. You are delusional and think that the world is coming to an end and that oil is going past 200$. We simply can't have conspiracy theorists represent our blog as a member (which is why we had to remove you- not because you disagree with us or that we are practicing 'thought control').

Judging by your rant I think the only 'thought control' taking place is courtesy of Jack Daniels. Have another swig on me- it will help you make it past the apocalypse.

If you look at the e-mail you posted today - what does it say delusional man?? That the problems we will face in the future 2011/12 will be much greater than what we are facing today. I stand by that statement. What else did I say about resources? That I agree that resource stocks are the way to go long term but that we were headed for a correction and that ag/fertilizer/oil/and the entire commodities sector was overpriced.

But the nice thing about the web is that it is all on the blog. Like I said before Frank - you can't hide from the facts. What else did I say in my e-mails that we were going to take 1000s of pages of content and make it available to investors- and provide a better forum than is out there- and this is still the case. What we will not include are people that think they know something because they opened up an e-trade account three years ago and think they know something.

I am finding all of these Internet battles comical. You can say what you want about me but I've owned two brokerages, raised over 100,000,000. in private capital for various ventures I've worked on, taken a company public, and work on Wall Street- own a company and am in the game. The only freaks that seem to insult me have no track record, are either computer nerds with personality disorders, or delusional freaks like you.

My work is on the web and I'm proud of it:

www.visawinners.com

www.southamericanstock...

www.virtualwallstreet....

www.empirestateventure...

(and a few others that are for investors only)

I welcome anyone and everyone to take a look at some of the projects I'm working on and make your own decision as to who has more credibility.

2008 Aug 11 12:39 AM

[Pretzel Logic:]

I'm pretty sure Visa got spanked because of their incredibly stupid new ad campaign about the Olympics ("Go World!"). I am of course kidding. But it seems to be poetic justice, nonetheless. ;)

2008 Aug 11 02:01 AM

[knightowl1953:]

What is that old saying in management school? If you do not have anything to say about an argument, attack the person, not the problem. I simply made an argument about Visa. From that, I had this man attack me on all fronts. What does that say about a man that instead of counterarguing my thesis attacks me personally? I will let the readers decide. I worked in risk management for 30 years, won many awards in college and enterprise and I will be damned if I am going to let an egomaniac rule the day. I had to retire in 2001 due to heart problems. For those that can review my arguments objectively, God Bless.

2008 Aug 11 07:36 AM

[knightowl1953:]

Here are the qualifications from the "nut":
University of Cincinnati, 1979
University scholarship
MA, Industrial Relations

Florida International University
Distinguished student award
BA, Economics 1977

Florida International University
Adjunct professor
1979-80
Economics

1980-1982
International Paper
Woodproducts plant in Gurdon, Arkansas
Human Resources safety management

1982-1985
US Foundry, Medley, Florida
Director of Human Resources and risk management

1985-1987
Feisco Insurance, Sarasota, FL
Division Safety and Health Manager

1987-1990, Boca Raton, FL
Greenwich Risk Management
VP of Risk Management

1990-2001
Riscorp, Sarasota, FL
Division Manager
Safety and Health

2008 Aug 11 07:47 AM

[knightowl1953:]

By the way, regarding Intrepid Potash (IPI), the opening price on this stock was 32 at initial offering. It stands at 44 right now. All commodeties have been beaten down lately due to oil prices but many analysts say commodities will be back with a vengence. IPI was recently UPGRADED by BMO Capital Markets to OUTPERFORM July 23. Do your own research and decide folks. I believe in this stock and I am a long player. Once comodities come back you will see this stock up again. Earnings report come up August 13 and should be stellar like 1Q report. But again, judge for yourself.

2008 Aug 11 08:14 AM

[knightowl1953:]

Regarding PetroHawk (PH), see a nice link below on this stock. Again, this stock has been beaten down due to sector rotation. All oil stocks are down. PH has had three upgrades from Stifel Nicolaus to buy, UBS to buy, and Lehman Brothers to Overweight. But I guess according to "Vwinner" they are all wrong and he is right. God forbid we disagree with the "King" of Wall Street.
See link below. Judge for yourself. I am long on PH.
seekingalpha.com/artic...?

2008 Aug 11 08:22 AM

[knightowl1953:]

Here is the rest of my portfolio which I am long in from the "NUT":

V, JASO,MEE,AGU,ARD, HK, IPI------------I have no doubt that despite the recent "correction" these stocks will be back. The solar industry is another story. Don't know if Jaso can climb higher much in the short term. But Wall Street is not a science. If it was, we would all be rich. And mistakes I make. I am just one guy with an opinion. Unlike some we know that are "experts" and attack us all if we disagree.

Good luck to all.

2008 Aug 11 08:31 AM

[knightowl1953:]

Wall Street is like psychiatry. You put 10 psychiatrist in a room on one topic and you get 10 different opinions. So what makes this "guy" right and the rest of us are wrong?

2008 Aug 11 08:37 AM

[knightowl1953:]

By the way V, I do not drink due to heart medications. I retired in a sleepy town in central florida with my wife and two daughters. And yes, I guess time can be the devils advocate. It makes my day to aggravate egomaniacs that think they know everything. But I have nothing to prove. I had a very producitve career. You know what is funny? I hope Visa goes up soon. Because I will be rewarded. Good luck to you and your blog. But please learn to be humble because in my career I had egomaniacs for lunch.

2008 Aug 11 08:46 AM

[knightowl1953:]

Regarding missspelled words, you must forgive me. My eyesight is not what it use to be. I usually write on word to do a spell check. But you sound like the many freaks that visit the yahoo boards. Attack if you must. I will let the readers decide. It must really eat your heart out when you are wrong. Have a drink on me. I wish I could join you.

2008 Aug 11 08:53 AM

[User 172125:]

Frank- give it up- and stop torturing all of us. If you are not drunk when writing these ridiculous comments then surely you better switch heart medications as the ones you are using are having some very strange side effects. The more I feel the more empathy I have for you. I too have had some tough times this year- like, for example the many times I have been to St. Maggies Cafe and been served stale bread! (this has been a painful dining experience)

Frank this site is about helping our fellow investor I am here to help you and the other DELUSIONAL DOUBTERS OF V. What you and your 'kin' are suffering from is actually a disease so we can't hold you responsible for your erratic behavior or impulsive thoughts. The good news is that there is a cure for your condition. You need to immediately step away from the keyboard Frank. The following link should help you and your fellow man understand what you are dealing with:

Delusional disorder

Delusional disorder is a psychiatric diagnosis denoting a psychotic mental illness that involves holding one or more non-bizarre delusions in the absence of any other significant psychopathology (signs or symptoms of mental illness). In particular, a person with delusional disorder has never met any other criteria for schizophrenia and does not have any marked hallucinations, although tactile (touch) or olfactory (smell) hallucinations may be present if they are related to the theme of the delusion.

A person with delusional disorder can be quite functional and does not tend to show any odd or bizarre behavior aside from these delusions. "Despite the encapsulation of the delusional system and the relative sparing of the personality, the patient's way of life is likely to become more and more overwhelmed by the dominating effect of the abnormal beliefs". (Munro, 1999)

Frank- get help while you still can. We will be here for you when you get back. Also technology has changed since the 70s we have a little thing called a spell -checker now and it is a nifty tool!

Your friend, a humble man (had to say that - afraid you would 'eat me for lunch')

2008 Aug 11 09:03 AM

[User 172125:]

V continues to 'get spanked' - ONLY up close to 5$ the last two days.......

2008 Aug 11 10:18 AM

[knightowl1953:]

Thanks for your professional diagnosis. Where did you get your medical degree?
I am glad for Visa. With the commodities sector out of favor for awhile nice to see I am making money with Visa.
Don't worry V, I will do just fine. Family is what really counts and what really matters. Meaning I could give a f*** what you think. But don't forget to take your medication. You know, the one that keeps you thinking you know everything and the rest of us are just jerks. Good luck my friend.

2008 Aug 11 11:27 AM

[knightowl1953:]

You argue as if I am not in favor of Visa. I owned this stock stupid. I hope it does very well. I am getting killed, like many others, in the commodities sector. A sector I am long on so I am not worry. I hope Visa starts a new leg right now!!! I need some good news for a change. Have a slice of John's Pizza and a green lizard on me.

2008 Aug 11 11:56 AM

[User 172125:]

Frank- This is my last feedback to you- so I am going to try to do you a favor. We have helped thousands of people understand V- and for that many people are thankful. We do not provide trading advice but we do furnish information. Anyone could be buying on dips and selling into rallies. The last two days would have provided a $5,000. profit on a 100k position. I assume that most self-directed investors do just that- day in and day out.

I hope you begin to understand the art of taking profits. My argument with you has always been about time frame. Parabolic moves create a profit taking opp, as do steep corrections. FYI- I am 100% focused on RESOURCE STOCKS RIGHT NOW- see my blogs (posted above). There are some INCREDIBLE buying opps forming right now. But it was you recommending that people buy comm stocks a month ago when I was telling people to either not to get in or to take profits.

Good Luck To You

2008 Aug 11 01:54 PM

[dewaterer:]

I, for one, will still be accumulating whenever I can afford it again. Can't find any other stock with the potential.

2008 Aug 11 08:33 PM

[mrbill for V:]

Latest large holdings of ISA


Institution
The 10 Largest Institutional Investors Share Holdings Change in Share Holdings* Date Reported
Fidelity Management & Research 24,777,683 3,956,955 4/30/08
Marsico Capital Management, L.L.C. 10,343,050 266,705 4/30/08
Atticus Capital, L.P. 7,799,500 7,799,500 3/31/08
Viking Global Investors LP 6,712,000 6,712,000 3/31/08
T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. 6,419,500 -43,400 5/31/08
Delaware Investments 5,365,690 5,365,690 3/31/08
Shumway Capital Partners, L.L.C. 5,005,000 5,005,000 3/31/08
Jennison Associates LLC 5,001,300 158,000 4/30/08
MFS Investment Management 4,263,190 -1,558,760 4/30/08
Davis Selected Advisers, L.P. 4,000,000 4,000,000 3/31/08
Mutual Funds
The 10 Mutual Funds with the largest holdings Share Holdings Change in Share Holdings* Date Reported
Fidelity Contrafund 5,593,393 880,200 4/30/08
Fidelity Growth Company Fund 4,264,100 2,900,000 4/30/08
EQ/Marsico Focus Portfolio 3,269,251 3,269,251 3/31/08
Columbia Marsico Focused Equities Fund 3,119,631 -401,685 4/30/08
T. Rowe Price Growth Stock Fund 2,911,600 2,911,600 3/31/08
Marsico Focus Fund 2,748,376 -407,972 4/30/08
Harbor Capital Appreciation Fund 2,070,700 2,070,700 3/31/08
Hartford Capital Appreciation Fund 2,066,100 -50,000 4/30/08
Fidelity Magellan Fund 1,608,400 0 4/30/08
T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth Fund 1,401,400 1,401,400 3/31

2008 Aug 21 07:21 PM