Bullish Sentiment Trend Continues Lower

The trend in bullish investor sentiment, as reported by the American Association of Individual Investors, continues lower as noted in the chart below. The bullish sentiment level declined to 35.61% versus last week's level of 40.00%. The 8-period moving average of the bullishness level remains just above 30%. The bull/bear spread came in at -7% this week versus -1% last week.

 

(Click on chart for larger image.)

Data Source: American Association of Individual Investors

Comments

[DaveW:]

Any thought/opinion regarding the information you presented?? Otherwise just a chart-check post...

2008 Aug 08 02:37 PM

[hermanbrut:]

Interesting data but is this a good thing or a bad thing?
My knowledge base isn't sufficient to form an opinion.
Will the recent drop in oil bolster bullishness?
Or is all this data just BS?

2008 Aug 09 12:03 PM

[CLH:]

This data tells us when to buy. After the last bear has sold and the last bull has become a bear its time to buy, buy buy.

I thought every one knew this. The above comments tell me other wise.

2008 Aug 09 01:33 PM

[marksage:]

From what you've presented, I see that the MA has just formed a higher low, which hardly supports your assertion, and the current value is above the MA. Looks more like a reversal than a continuation, at least for now. I'd save your thoughts until we see where the next MA reversal comes - if we break above the previous downward reversal point then the trend is, by definition, up.

2008 Aug 09 01:39 PM

[surgcare:]

What happens if the bears are right and after the last bear sells nobody wants to buy .

2008 Aug 09 04:34 PM

[KSengineer:]

Someone please explain how this chart tells us when to buy or sell. I cannot see a correlation between the bullish sentiment trend and a low or high in the S&P500, at least for a medium or long term trend.

2008 Aug 09 06:02 PM

[Lois:]

The best web-site that helps explain things to me is tycoonreport.com

2008 Aug 09 06:42 PM

[adan:]

marc faber recently wrote that over-bought conditions at the beginning of bull markets, and over-sold conditions at the beginning of bear markets, were common, and persisted -

that extreme bearishness, is more meaningful within the context of the stage of the trend

i thought that was pretty interesting

2008 Aug 10 12:09 AM