Talk about the horse and the barn door.
Amidst a 38% plunge in shares of chip maker Anadigics (ANAD) following a gloomy pre-announcement last night, analyst Pierre MacCagno of Needham & Co. today reiterated his “Strong Buy” rating on the stock while cutting his price target from $14 to $6. Thanks for the heads-up.
To recap, Anadigics yesterday announced that for its current, third fiscal quarter, cell-phone makers have shown less demand for its chips, and the company is putting off some chip production, leading the company to revise its revenue expectation from a range of $75 million to $81 million given back on July 22 to $62 million to $65 million. Ouch! And the company now sees profit per share in a range of negative 1 cent to a profit of 1 cent, excluding some costs, down from an expected range of $.10 to $.14. The Street’s consensus numbers are still at $74 million and 12 cents.
Let us note as well that Anadigics’s old forecast was already a disappointment when it was offered last month. Talk about the other shoe!
MacCagno, however, is maintaining his Strong Buy rating even while lowering estimates and cutting his price target to $6 from $14. MacCagno says Anadigics had put customers “on allocation” in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, presumably leading to a buildup of inventory. Combined with a loss of market share among some customers, Anadigics’ cell-phone related business probably is down 40% this quarter. Still, “Anadigics remains a revenue and margin growth story that is strategically positioned on the convergence of video/voice & data markets with leading customers which are growing at double digit-growth rates with very favorable margins.” For 2008, MacCagno’s sales estimate goes from $313 million to $285 million, and from $376 million in 2009 to $308 million.