Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

<< Return to page 1 - Georgia On My Mind






















































The war action in Georgia doesn’t seem to faze bulls much. They’re focused on oil prices and the dollar and everything is keying off those. It’s hard to imagine this rally is occurring sometimes but there it is. We must accept it despite the ongoing drumbeat of horrible news. Mr. Market must be looking past current events believing at least a tradable rally is at hand. Who are we to dispute the tape?

The rebirth of the Soviet Union should be scary. Putin must believe he can send a message to Europe and other breakaway republics that Russia is not to be messed with. The overkill seems unnecessary but in doing so they reinforce the message.

Things are extended now both for commodity markets and stocks. Be careful out there.

I’d like to leave blog readers with a couple of points based on emails received. Some site aggregators fashion their own headlines for each post. We don’t create these headlines which can be off-base and cause unpleasant emails. We also don’t pound the table to buy or sell anything. I don’t consider myself a pundit. The purpose of the blog is to give readers what I believe is a “range of possibilities” and that’s it. Along those lines the ETF Digest maintains 10 Sacred Cows and number 9 reads: “If you must forecast, forecast often.” This is borrowed from economist Edgar Fiedler and makes my point well.

Have a pleasant day.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains long or short positions in: IWM, QQQQ, QLD, IGM, IGV, IGN, XLP, UGE, XLV, RXL, IBB, GLD, DZZ, DGZ, UUP, FXE, DRR, FXA, FXC, FXY, DEE and USO.

Comments

[thumb:]

Thanks!
tom

2008 Aug 12 07:28 AM

[Donald Johnson:]

Pictures tell a thousand words. Great post.

Point and figure charts, which tend to lag daily and weekly charts, also are useful.

DIA and SPY are still bearish while a number of important sector ETFs' charts have bullish point and figure price objectives.

2008 Aug 12 08:53 AM

[glideratio:]

regarding RSX,
Russian president is Dmitri NOT Vladimir !!!

2008 Aug 12 09:44 AM

[glideratio:]

regarding RSX
Russian president is Dmitri NOT Vladimir !!!

2008 Aug 12 09:47 AM

[glideratio:]

David, please comment your words regarding RSX and Vladimir ?
I don't see a connection between pumping and Georgea atacks against Ostetian people who want freedom from Georgea (like Kosovo)

2008 Aug 12 09:51 AM

[Calvin C.:]

Everyone knows that Vlad is the man behind the iron curtain & Mdevdev is just his puppet.

2008 Aug 12 02:31 PM

[OldLimey:]

Anybody old enough to remember the McCoys gets my vote! (A comment doubtless lost on the Goldilocks generation.)

2008 Aug 12 02:37 PM

[johnthebear:]

Thanks again David.

Have you heard how they do FXI/FXP to make it 2:1 on a consistant basis?

Regarding FXI, it looks to me like the folks on this side of the pond are finally looking at what is happening to .ssec and .hsi and deciding China is not such a good place to be and so they are selling FXI. Some have said if you believe the market is heading down big after the Olympics, why not sell now?

FXP really looks good here.

2008 Aug 12 10:14 PM