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Apple (AAPL) barged its way into the cell phone business and created lust in the wireless marketplace by creating a singular, super-fidelity handset. Stretching further toward the mass market by selling its products in Best Buy stores (BBY) will create an interesting and potentially dangerous test for Apple.

I've been working on a book, to be published next year by Doubleday, on the trade-offs consumers make between the fidelity (or experience) of something and its convenience (i.e., how easy is it to get and use). The trade-off plays a huge role in business successes and failures. One of the discoveries is that it's almost impossible to offer consumers both high fidelity and high convenience at the same time. Products and services that do best are usually one or the other, while trying to do both muddies the brand message and starts to erode either the fidelity or convenience.

It's important to note that part of the secret to a super-fidelity product is at least a certain amount of exclusiveness. In the case of the iPhone, for instance, it's way cooler to have an iPhone when most people don't than to have an iPhone if everybody does.

So, you probably see where I'm going with this. The iPhone is a great, high-fidelity product in and of itself. But part of its fidelity comes from its unusualness and its cool factor. Apple sold about 5 million iPhones in 2007. This summer, it sold 3 million iPhone 3Gs in just its first month on the market. Meanwhile, the price keeps dropping, which makes the iPhone more available -- and at the same time, more pedestrian. Selling the phones at retail outlets like Best Buy instead of just at Apple Stores will contribute to that trend. At what point will the iPhone no longer seem so cool? (This is pretty much what happened to Motorola's (MOT) RAZR.)

Apple, it seems, is at a strategic crossroads with the iPhone. It can pull up short now, continue to pump R&D into making the iPhone the industry's premium product, keep prices high and availability low, and maintain a solid niche market of fanatical owners. Or it can drive the iPhone down into the mass market -- a la the iPod -- and create a brand new top-end, super-fidelity handset that holds onto coolness/exclusivity. That is, IF it can. Not easy to do.

If Apple simply pushes the iPhone into the mass market, it will be a temporary victory. As the RAZR showed, sales will take off like a rocket as the price drops -- until a point comes when consumers see the product as run-of-the-mill, margins shrink, and prices can't fall any further. Sales suddenly fall off a cliff, and the brand is all but dead.

Can't wait to watch Apple and see.

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This article has 21 comments:

  •  
    Kevin, it seems you need look no further than the iPod success story to disprove your theory. Ubiquity does not automatically means the loss of "cool" or "fidelity". But good luck with that book!
    2008 Aug 14 03:46 AM | Link | Reply
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    The analysis is interesting but I feel shortsighted in one area in particular. A huge part of apple's success has been innovation. For other companies, this may no be a factor, and it is reasonable to assume a stagnant product with a terminal demand/supply equilibrium. However, Apple's largest asset is its ability to innovate and revolutionize. Based on their history, it's more reasonable to assume they will change to game again when they've hit that critical juncture.
    2008 Aug 14 04:47 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I have been a purchaser of Apple products since 1984. I was willing to step out on a limb and purchase the first Mac ever and a printer after my Kaypro computer left me hanging. What I liked about Apple was the fact that they were not followers but were the leaders. It is just that most people did not recognize it at the time. What were new items to the "American lexon" were words such as "desktop, icons and WYSIWYG."
    The fact that the computer and printer cost double what other computers cost was not a factor in my purchasing decision. What was a major factor was that one could print exactly what one wanted too the first time without a considerable amount of trial and error and the added fact that numerous fonts were a part of the package was an additional benefit.
    I have the latest Apple gadget which is the iTouch and I can't believe how much I depend on it but I have discovered one problem and I am not sure if it is with the Touch or with Seeking Alpha. When I access Seeking Alpha on the the Touch through the wireless internet I cannot access all of the features Seeking Alpha has to offer such as: Investment Ideas, US Market, Global Markets, ETF's, Sector, etc.
    The other feature that sets Apple apart from other companies besides inovation is there absolute adherence to using their programming language. I have some knowledge of early programming courtesy of the USN and what I learned is when you turn on any computer it has to go through a "bootstrap" procedure and it checks its circuits to make sure everything is ready to respond. It sets the pointer at octal 001 (machine code) and asks the operator to push the start button to begin. In the case of the Kaypro it showed a small blinking arrow which I believe was the command line asking the operator to begin making entries. This blinking arrow was common among most computers whether they were IBM PC's or the Commodore computers.
    The Apple program chose not to follow this approach and mapped every pixel on the computers screen and it had something no other computer had which was a "mouse." All the PC users laughed at us (Applefiles) because we did not have a command line with our computers we had to do something called point and click.
    I remember one of the famous guru's of computerdom telling everyone that the Apple computer would fail because of this childish feature. Funny how predictions can be so wrong. It just takes some people longer to discover the "light" even when it is right in their face.
    I remember the first BMUG (Boston Mac Users Group) where I was able to listen to two men speak. One was Bill Gates the other was Steve Jobs. It was quite obvious to me which of the two was the innovator. I ask anyone reading this comment to follow the innovators. They might not always be right but they certainly are not part of the flock. Chow GW.
    2008 Aug 14 05:30 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    RE: "One of the discoveries is that it's almost impossible to offer consumers both high fidelity and high convenience at the same time."

    =====================
    For luxury items that are NON-ESSENTIAL this statement may be true.

    A Ferrari has fidelity and is convenient, so are luxury, exclusive hotels, member-only nightclubs etc.

    However, EVERYONE needs mobility and a personal communications device with access to business and personal data. These are no longer just WANTS, but today they have become NEEDS.

    Apple excels because it provides a UI (user interface) that is easy, and fun, to use. It happens to be cool, BECAUSE it is easy and fun to use, not only because it has a small market share.

    Notice, that when Apple introduced the 3G iPhone it looked almost EXACTLY like the 2G iPhone. Also they both use the IDENTICAL software and SAME user interface.

    Other handset manufacturers have many handset models in their lineup. Unfortunately, changing to another handset of the SAME manufacturer means that you have to become accustomed to a different designed device.

    Apple determines what the easy and fun user interface should be, and then spreads that same UI throughout its product line. This gives its customers consistency and productivity with every one of its devices.
    2008 Aug 14 06:42 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Interesting theory but you must remember, Apple clearly has reasons for its decisions. Mass marketing of the ipod and iPhone has brought tons of people into the Apple fold, and as a result more products (laptops and desktops, tunes, movies, software, Touch, etc) have been sold. Market share and surpassing competitors on all fronts is now a major goal. There always will be a premium new product from Apple because innovation is Apple. Not to worry.
    2008 Aug 14 07:03 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I agree with your analysis in some ways; however, the iPhone is more than a luxury product. It is also a superior product that the competition hasn't been able to match. Many, if not most, people bought the RAZR for the 'cool' factor. The same can be said about iPods. The iPhone has more than good looks, it has a brain to match. That is why it will not suffer the same fate as the RAZR.

    Apple is pushing this device as more than just a phone...it is the next computing platform. It, and devices like the iPhone, are what everyone will be using in the future. This is the mobile computer that people have been talking about for years. I've never understood why people think an 11" laptop is a mobile device. Something that is truly mobile needs to fit in your pocket, not in a bag on your shoulder.

    They need to get as many people using the iPhone as possible so that they are ahead of the competition. The Best Buy deal will help them do that. Not to mention, many people using an iPhone will probably convert to the Mac platform, which happens to be sold in many Best Buy centers.

    The halo effect was in many ways the point of the iPod, at least that became a nice bonus. With the iPhone, however, this isn't as important in the long term because people will not be using desktops, even laptops, the same way in the future. Mobile devices like the iPhone will be the second computer of choice for many people.

    2008 Aug 14 07:55 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Here's the big problem I see for Apple - customer service. My recent experience:

    I bought an iPhone at an AT&T store. It had a fit/finish problem (the glass was not seated properly under the bezel), which I did not notice for a couple of days. I went back to the AT&T store and was told that it was a warranty issue and that I'd have to deal with Apple.

    After a few tribulations I got to see a "genius" at a local Apple store. She fetched a replacement unit, which she was ready to swap with me, when she learned I had bought the phone at an AT&T store. Because I had not purchased it at an Apple store, she could not give me the unit she had in stock. Rather, she had to order a replacement unit, which took 10 days to arrive, I had to make another "genius" appointment and another trip to the Apple store. I left the store frustrated and disappointed.

    If Apple will continue to treat as second-class citizens its customers who choose a more convenient purchasing option, I worry about the company increasing such options.
    2008 Aug 14 08:33 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I think you need a better example than the moto Razor.

    That was only different in design, not in functionality or features. It's a ludicrous comparison.

    You are really pushing your theory to hold up the Razor as a failure, and suggest that the iPhone would folow that merely well designed phone when the Razor never received 100th the attention the iPhone has, and for obvious reasons--it's a phone, not a computer.




    2008 Aug 14 08:46 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    you're reaching, kevin. it is hard to believe you actually believe this - it reads more like you're not an Apple lover and are searching for something to grab onto.
    2008 Aug 14 09:16 AM | Link | Reply
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    The reason that the RAZR eventually failed is because, when you got past it's "cool" thin looks, it was essentially just a phone - nothing else. Motorola never improved on it's basic features. It was finally eclipsed by newer, innovative smartphones. I think your comparison is flawed. You are mixing two totally different types of devices: plain-vanilla cell phones like the RAZR and smartphones like the iPhone.
    2008 Aug 14 10:09 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    why pick apple to try to make this absurd theory one of only a few companies to have an effective monoploly that is cool ie the ipod
    ridiculous article
    2008 Aug 14 10:24 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    i think you missed the real 'coolness' of apple products...they're always ahead of the game. so, ok, THIS iphone might be one everyone eventually has, but everyone won't have the one coming out next year. the word is 'innovation'!!

    companies that rested on their laurels with one popular product, got what they deserved. Apple makes a range of products and is developing new ones all the time. you just can't compare them to one-trick-ponies.

    best buy has reported that people are constantly asking if they carry the iphone...and the best buy i went into (to see the Apple department) has a surprise waiting... a real APPLE guy!! in uniform and everything just like at the Apple Store, ready to deliver good customer service. He said he's full time there and there are others being hired. This guy had previously been the ONLY person at the compusa store who knew what he was doing. (one clue about compusas' failure)
    so Apple is not just sending off their complicated products... they're making sure it's done right. they learned the hard way, but it was a good lesson and paying off now.
    2008 Aug 14 10:31 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Typical "theory supported by confirmation bias."

    The iPod, as pointed out, is perfect counterexample. An iPod didn't end up in every household in the world because it was rare or hard to get (nobody wants them because everyone is buying them?!?); in fact, the less expensive nano iPods proved more successful. The iPod was one of the best tech product successes ever because of product/software design and integration. Great product, great design, great quality, fantastic software integration (because it came from a company that understands product design, user interface and software.) Apple is one of VERY few companies that can roll out hardware/software pairs, let alone do it well. And its resources for doing so keep groing.
    2008 Aug 14 10:31 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Mr. Maney's comparison of Apple becoming the next Motorola is absurd and shows how little some in the press understand the business of companies they attempt to write about. The Razor's success didn't kill the devise, Motorola lacked the innovation to evolve the product as Apple has done with all it's products. Mr. Maney's story would have worked if Apple would have stopped developing the iPod once it released it’s original offering. His inability to have considered this is nothing short of lame.
    2008 Aug 14 11:12 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Bad comparison. Apple is "Innovation", which is what a lot of companies lack.
    2008 Aug 14 11:45 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
    2008 Aug 14 11:46 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The article act like Apple is a one trick pony. How about the Mac and the ability to use the devices to play games and search in the near future alone with t.v. This is a game changing platform, not just a cool phone maker.
    2008 Aug 14 11:48 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Microsoft thought it was going to kill Apple, but it didn't. I have been an owner of AAPL for five years. I use a PowerBook G4. So does my son. We both swear by Macs. If the market gets saturated with I-Phones, then Jobs will come up with something new, and more profitable.
    2008 Aug 14 12:09 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    This is a relevant point that I have though about before. At some point, the iPhone buzz will wear off, it is inevitable. How fast this happens is another question that could indeed be linked to what your calling fidelitly. I agree, selling an iPhone in Best Buy takes away from the entire cool Apple buying experience. Increased availability takes straight from the exclusiveness-somethin... that Apple has clearly positioned its products on. They may sell more in the beginning but once everyone has an iPhone from Best Buy (ewww) I cant see sustained growth. I don't think Kevin is trying to point out that the iPhone will die eventually, all you apple fanboys, I think he's just pointing out Apple has banked on being NOT pedestrian, so why would they chose a marketing strategy like this?
    2008 Aug 14 01:25 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Comparing Apple's business model for the iPhone to that of the RAZR is understandable but wrong. 1) It's a comparing a cellphone to an internet device connected to an ecosystem of robust software and the app store (which gives the iPhone incredible functional expandability) and 2) as opposed to Motorola's business model, Apple has proven it's able to make MORE PROFIT per unit as the price falls by getting economies of scale and lowering the cost of materials.
    2008 Aug 14 02:35 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    You forget that Apple has already fundamentally changed the market. The phone market will be gone in a few years. I n it's place is the hand-held computer. This may be the only computer most people around the world ever own. Can you imagine if someone 25 years ago said that the PC would be finished as soon as they became popular and lost their cool factor?
    2008 Aug 16 01:06 AM | Link | Reply
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