Bear Market Gold

With a decline of over 2% overnight, gold is the latest commodity to hit bear market territory.  The commodity is now down 21.5% from its highs during the collapse of Bear Stearns. 

As highlighted below, gold is now at its lowest levels of the year and down over 6% YTD.  Looking back at the prior eleven bear markets in gold, the average decline has been just under 34% over a period of 18 months.

click to enlarge

Comments

[dieuwer:]

This is excellent news. Bespoke declares a bear market in gold! The ultimate contrarian signal!

*Load up on gold now, we just hit the bottom*

2008 Aug 15 08:19 AM

[Filip:]

We need average pullback in bull gold market and not average length of gold bear market overall as measure.

Misleading calculation! (I won’t buy financials!!!!)

2008 Aug 15 10:35 AM

[BrunoT:]

I bet the government didn't overspend by over $1 Trillion in ANY of those 18 month periods. Well, they will in 2009 and they are at around 2/3 of that for 2008. Last I heard, printing/creating $1T was not great for the strength of the currency.

So much for historical norms. This ain't your father's market. Of course by the pics you guys look like you've never lived a minute as adults through a bad time in the stock market.

2008 Aug 15 10:42 AM

[Golden Oxen:]

The stupid type of chart nonsense with no regard to fudamentals. Typical of the children that manage the nations money. I can see them explaining how Yahoo was going to 420 from 220 because of the slope of the trajectory. Heaven help us.

2008 Aug 15 11:23 AM

[dieuwer:]

I amend my post: the bull market in "paper gold" may be over, but the bull market in "physical gold" is not.

*You tell me where I can buy physical gold (coins) for less than $800*

2008 Aug 15 11:23 AM

[thannagan:]

The last I heard was that the miners sell the real stuff.

2008 Aug 15 11:40 AM

[JBP:]

Florin,

Are you saying GLD or the miners aren't suitable investments for gold? I really don't have vaults at my house to store gold...

2008 Aug 15 11:49 AM

[dieuwer:]

GLD a GDX are suitable as trading vehicles. Basically, my point is that contracts or derivative on the price of gold (such as GLD) may behave differently than the actual price of physical gold.

2008 Aug 15 12:05 PM

[MarkMedayski:]

Thanks for statistics guys,are you long/short gold or just want to make a name for your website?
I love gold goes down (even I am bull on it) as at my Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt are some cash deposits that I am eager to change to gold bars that Commerzbank is trading.
Let the gold crash,let me get my bars cheap.

www.commerzbank.de/de/...

2008 Aug 15 12:05 PM

[rockingjude:]

Le Metropole Members,
>
> U.S. mint suspends gold coin sales; futures price is a fiction
>
> Submitted by cpowell on 09:27PM ET Thursday, August 14, 2008. Section: Daily Dispatches
> 12:25a ET Friday, August 15, 2008
>
> Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
>
> The U.S. Mint has suspended sales of American Eagle gold coins and is refusing orders from dealers, two coin and bullion dealers confirmed Thursday.
>
> The mint's suspension of gold coin sales follows its tight rationing of sales of silver eagle coins, begun in May, when sales to the public were terminated and sales to the mint's 13 authorized dealers were tightly limited.
>
> Word of the mint's suspension of gold coin sales came from the American Precious Metals Exchange in Edmond, Oklahoma, (apmexdealer.blogspot.c...) and from Centennial Precious Metals in Denver, Colorado.
>
> The suspension is overwhelming evidence that the futures contract price of gold on the commodities exchanges is substantially below the physical market price and that, indeed, the commodities exchanges are being used as GATA long has maintained -- as part of a massive scheme of manipulation of the precious metals, currency, and bond markets.
>
> Michael Kosares, proprietor of Centennial Precious Metals and host of its Internet bulletin board, the USAGold Forum (www.usagold.com/cpmfor.../), explained Thursday:
>
> "The U.S. Mint buys direct from the refiners, and this suspension of gold eagle sales may be an indication that the supply line is already backing up, or that the mint expects that it will back up for the rest of the year. I wonder who would give up physical metal at these prices and under these circumstances except distressed sellers. The central banks are in a hunker-down mode as far as I can determine, and it's the mines that supply the refiners. So if the mint, which buys from the refiners, is having a difficult time locating metal, what does that tell you? I keep saying that we may get a surprising rubber-band effect later in the year when the pre-holiday/festival season kicks off in September/October. It may happen sooner. One of our indicators of approaching a bottom in gold is how many calls Centennial Precious Metals gets from our U.S.-based Indian clientele. Here's a quote from my office's report to me at the end of the day today: 'Today was a good day. ... There must have been an Indian convention where someone was handing out USAGold business cards.' That may give you a clue as to thinking in India proper and probably the rest of the Asian rim."
>
> That is, through their agents the bullion banks the Western central banks, desperate to prop up a corrupt and totteringt financial system, have put gold so much on sale that even the U.S. Mint can't find any now. The price reported from the commodities markets is a fiction -- a scary one, perhaps, but a fiction no less.
>
> You can strike a blow at the market riggers who are defrauding the world -- just buy a little real metal. The dealers listed at the bottom right of this dispatch will be glad to help you do it.
>
> CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
> Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
>
> * * *
>
> Join GATA here:
>
> Hard Assets Investment Conference
> Tuesday-Wednesday, September 9-10, 2008
> Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada
> www.iiconf.com/
>
> Silver Summit
> Thursday-Friday, September 18-19, 2008
> Best Western Coeur d'Alene Inn
> Coeur d'Alene, Idaho
> thesilversummit.com/
>
> New Orleans Investment Conference
> Thursday-Monday, November 13-18, 2008
> New Orleans Marriott Hotel
> www.neworleansconferen.../
>
> * * *
>
> Help Keep GATA Going
>
> GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at www.gata.org/.
> Contact GATA
> [e-mail]
>
> Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
> 7 Villa Louisa Road
> Manchester, Connecticut
> 06043-7541 USA
>
>
> www.gata.org/
>
>
> Recommended Sites

>
> Recommended Gold & Bullion Dealers
> Coin and precious metals dealers who have supported GATA
> and been recommended by our members:
>
> Blanchard & Co. Inc.
> 909 Poydras St., Suite 1900
> New Orleans, Louisiana 70112
> 888-413-4653
> www.blanchardonline.co.../
>
> Centennial Precious Metals
> Box 460009
> Denver, Colorado 80246-0009
> 1-800-869-5115
> www.usagold.com/
> Michael Kosares, Proprietor
> [e-mail]
>
> Colorado Gold
> 222 South 5th St.
> Montrose, Colorado 81401
> www.coloradogold.com/
> Don Stott, Proprietor
> 1-888-786-8822
> [e-mail]
>
> El Dorado Discount Gold
> 13014 North Dale Mabry Highway
> Suite 133
> Tampa, Florida 33618
> 623-643-8785
> www.eldoradogold.net/
> Contact: Eric Levenson
> [e-mail]
>
> Gold & Silver Investments Ltd.
> 63 Fitzwilliam Square
> Dublin 2, Ireland
> ...and
> Tower 42, Level 7
> 25 Old Broad St.
> London, EC2N 1HN
> United Kingdom
> Local Call Ireland: 1-850-GOLD-IE
> UK phone: [phone]
> International: [phone]
> Fax: [phone]
> www.gold.ie/
>
> GoldMoney
> Net Transactions Ltd.
> ASL House
> 12-14 David Place
> St. Helier, Jersey JE2 4TD
> Channel Islands, UK
> International: [phone]
> GoldMoney.com
>
> Investment Rarities Inc.
> 7850 Metro Parkway
> Minneapolis, Minnesota 55425
> www.gloomdoom.com/
> Greg Westgaard, Sales Manager
> 1-800-328-1860, Ext. 8889
> gwestgaard@investmentr...
>
> Jaxville Gold and Silver Trading Co.
> 4901-48 St.
> Parkland Square, Lower Mall
> Red Deer, Alberta, Canada
> www.jaxville.com/
> Jack Fortin, Owner and Operator
> 403-346-5266
> [e-mail]
>
> Kitco
> 178 West Service Road
> Champlain, N.Y. 12919
> Toll Free:1-877-775-4826
> Fax: [phone]
> ...and
> 620 Cathcart, Suite 900
> Montreal, Quebec H3B 1M1
> Canada
> Toll-free:1-800-363-70...
> Fax: [phone]
> www.kitco.com/
>
> Lee Certified Coins
> P.O. Box 1045
> 454 Daniel Webster Highway
> Merrimack, New Hampshire 03054
> www.certifiedcoins.com/
> Ed Lee, Proprietor
> 1-800-835-6000
> [e-mail]
>
> MRCS Canada
> 12303-118 Ave. NW
> Edmonton, Alberta T5L 2K2
> Canada
> www.mrcscanada.com/
> Michael Riedel, Proprietor
> 1-877-TRY-MRCS
> 1-877-879-6727
> [e-mail]
>
> Miles Franklin Ltd.
> 1001 Twelve Oaks Center Drive
> Suite 1028
> Wayzata, MN 55391
> 1-800-822-8080
> www.milesfranklin.com/
> Contacts: David Schectman,
> Andy Schectman, and Bob Sichel
>
> Missouri Coin Co.
> 11742 Manchester Road
> St. Louis, MO 63131-4614
> [e-mail]
> 314-965-9797
> 1-800-280-9797
> www.mocoin.com/
>
> Resource Consultants Inc.
> 6139 South Rural Road
> Suite 103
> Tempe, Arizona 85283-2929
> Pat Gorman, Proprietor
> 1-800-494-4149, 480-820-5877
> [e-mail]
> www.buysilvernow.com/
>
> Silver Trading Co.
> 445 Montgomery St.
> PO Box 876
> Shreveport, Louisiana 71107
> Larry LaBorde, Proprietor
> 318-470-7291
> LLaBord@silvertrading....
> www.silvertrading.net/
>
> Swiss America Trading Corp.
> 15018 North Tatum Blvd.
> Phoenix, Arizona 85032
> www.swissamerica.com/
> Dr. Fred I. Goldstein, Senior Broker
> 1-800-BUY-COIN
> FiGoldstein@swissameri...
>
> The Moneychanger
> Box 178
> Westpoint, Tennessee 38486
> www.the-moneychanger.c.../
> Franklin Sanders
> 1-888-218-9226, 931-766-6066

2008 Aug 15 12:07 PM

[jetsby10:]

JPB, you must be rich if you could buy enough gold to put in a vault. You're local bank has a safety deposit box that can easily store tens of thousands of dollars worth of gold.

2008 Aug 15 01:55 PM

[Charles Lon...:]

Well, you might trust your safety deposit box. I blogged on this subject a couple of months ago. Check it out and be amazed.
see: tradingwellandliving.b...

2008 Aug 15 02:04 PM

[oro-plata:]

Supporting GATA is very Important. However, the U.S. Patriot Act will be "on top" of all Metal Traders. Be sure you buy from a Dealer that can back you up when the IRS or Big brother come knocking.

Oro Investment Services
1302 Chelsea St
El Paso, TX 79903
915.329-8000

A Rodriguez, Proprietor

www.goldandsilverzone....
oro-plata@goldandsilve...

2008 Aug 15 02:28 PM

[CLH:]

It really doesnt matter if its a real bear-- the gold bug crazies will continue to hang on. The last gold bear 1980- 2000 took 20 years and huge losses before the last bull gave up.

2008 Aug 16 06:07 PM