The End Run Around the Operating System Is Under Way

The operating system may be losing its luster. In fact, you could argue that the operating system–Linux, OS X and Windows–will become an application that just happens to boot first. And hardware vendors are on to the OS’s diminishing importance.

Let’s connect a few dots:

• On Tuesday, Dell (DELL) rolled out a new line of laptops and one of the best features was the ability to get your email, contacts, calendar and other items without booting the operating system, a process that can take awhile (at least on my system).
• On Thursday, Intel (INTC) talked up software that can wake a system out of sleep mode to take a PC phone call. It’s probably a security disaster waiting to happen, but it’s handy for PC calls via the Internet.

The common thread: These efforts from Dell and Intel are arguably taking away some of the tasks that the operating system would normally do. My working theory: The OS is being slowly downplayed as hardware vendors and Web developers grab more control over the user experience. The OS will never be totally irrelevant, but it will be increasingly less important. It’ll be plumbing. Simply put, the OS is being squeezed between hardware vendors that are cooking up their own applications to handle key tasks and the so-called Webtop, which will deliver programs through the browser.

Indeed, Mozilla had a casting call last week for developers to cook up ideas for the successor to Firefox. The effort is very conceptual, but does indicate that folks think the browser will poach more work from the OS.

Toss in virtualization, which will become the most important layer of the software stack and manage the OSes, and there are enough items to argue that the OS glory days are gone.

How soon will this scenario play out? It’ll be years–perhaps a decade. The OS isn’t going away anytime soon, but its role is being nibbled at slowly but surely. I’m sure that Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL) and the folks behind the various flavors of Linux would beg to differ. But the writing is on the wall: While people are focused on winners and losers in the OS wars, the reality may be that they all lose.

Thoughts?

The OS…

• 
  will retain its current status.
• 
  become plumbing relegated to the background.
• 
  evolve into something else.

View Results

Comments

[Jonathan Scott:]

"the operating system...will become an application that just happens to boot first. " - is that not that what it is now?
"The OS will...be plumbing." = that isn't important?
"Toss in virtualization" = isn't MSFT doing that?
the OS glory days are gone...perhaps in a decade = what software product lasted more than 10 years.
Your article says the changes you predict will take 10 years to play out, in other words technology will change in the next 10 years, not much of a headline grabber.

2008 Aug 15 01:16 PM

[andrew j:]

"i don't think that means what you think it means."

If by "operating system," you mean Linux, Windows, or whatever you're calling the Mac OS built on Unix, then great. But if you actually mean is "the huge suite of usability tools and applications that get packaged with an OS.", then say that, instead.

Let's check wikipedia: "An operating system ... is the software component of a computer system that is responsible for the management and coordination of activities and the sharing of the resources of the computer." The nice diagram showing an interaction chain goes from User <=> Application <=> OS <=> Hardware. As long as your applications need to use hardware, there will be OS's. Whether or not it will need to come with a media player, a movie maker, or even a solitaire program, is a different question entirely.

Also, even if users get rid of their client side apps and move to server side things like GMail -- well, what the hell is going to manage the resources on the servers?

But as long as there are resources to manage, there is an OS layer.
Dell's laptop that lets you check your e-mail, calendar, etc, "without booting the OS!" actually means it is booting a very thin, but equally important operating system on top, one that probably sets up and manages a network connection, graphics resources, etc. (in fact, it's a very thin, embedded flavor of linux: blog.internetnews.com/... )

"toss in virtualization" -- what is the virtualization running on top of, i'd like to know? pixie dust?

So when you talk about the "future of the OS" -- you actually mean the future of the big, bundled bloatware that comes with them, right? Cuz that's a pretty different question.

2008 Aug 15 02:07 PM

[GS:]

You are wrond my friend. The OS is EVERYTHING. The hardware is nothing. All computer run the same hardware.
It's THE OS THAT MAKES THE HUGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAPE AND RESPECT

2008 Aug 15 02:10 PM

[sgmsg:]

I'm not pretty sure. I'm not pretty sure but Windows seem to be residant or only some parts of it are booted. So its pretty fast, but anyway you still need an OS.

The day where OS will be insignifiant, is the day you will have fully free and supported OS. Google can do that... but at what price? With how many unsupportable ads? Apple can do that because, they make money on hardware, so they can reduce margin on OS X. An OS linux based is not for tomorow who gonna be in charge when a crash will arrive or when hacker gonna take control of your computer?

That's why we pay for an OS for protection and people in charge!

2008 Aug 15 02:25 PM

[rmcl301:]

you asked for thoughts and mentioned that you experience long boot up times. here's a thought for you; get a Mac

2008 Aug 15 02:31 PM

[Jonathan Scott:]

Wall Street is looking for the next money making machine. In this process, Wall Street will buy into many stories that claims to point out the next money machine. This is where the audience comes from for articles like "OS is dead"

2008 Aug 15 03:58 PM

[jack dee:]

10 years from now expect to see some story about how the OS is about to die, and be replaced by (--insert anything here--).

In fact would be more worried that 10 years from now GooG and MS will be in my bathroom making me boot up my toilet before I use it.

2008 Aug 15 04:31 PM

[dig:]

hardware will certainly become smarter with more robust and feature rich firmware, but the OS layer will never go away. there has to be a software layer which holds it all together, along with the API abstractions which allow developers to easily create compelling applications.

2008 Aug 15 04:45 PM

[dig:]

hardware will certainly become smarter with more robust and feature rich firmware, but the OS layer will never go away. there has to be a software layer which holds it all together, along with the API abstractions which allow developers to easily create compelling applications.

2008 Aug 15 04:45 PM

[kbear2:]

Jack dee: "In fact would be more worried that 10 years from now GooG and MS will be in my bathroom making me boot up my toilet before I use it."

Amen to that.

I want to have final say over what enters my living space. Autonomy is a valuable concept on the desktop and we need to be attentive to those 'features' that usurp our control. Ease of use can be paramount as long as the ability to go under the visible spectrum and tweak the OS is possible. That's why the Mac with its Unix base is my choice of platform.

Regarding allowing the 'cloud' to manage my resources, uh, no. Just last night my cable connection went out and was offline for hours. Without a local version of my OS and files I would be out of luck. The net is not reliable enough to trust either in efficiency or security. Until they offer some sort of real advantage, as do banks holding my money, I'll keep my OS and data at home.

2008 Aug 15 08:56 PM

[disposablei...:]

Open the lid of a sleeping MacBook and you're reading your email 10 seconds later. On my wife's new $2200 HP notebook running Vista and it's well over 1:30. No wonder PC manufacturers are creating these nonboot / thin OS apps. Crazy world.

2008 Aug 16 01:15 AM

[Jon T:]

I've read this guy's posts a few times now, and I have to say that he really does get the wrong end of the stick pretty often.

What he means is that Windows is dead. The world is on Unix now, the leader being the Apple Mac.

Just look at mobiles, the difference between touch phones is those running Windows, RIM's OS, Symbian and OSX. The differentiator IS the OS...

2008 Aug 16 09:15 AM

[Prudent Man...:]

Nothing like competition.

"Constructive Destruction" provides great product.

Will the change come from the entitlement-laden American worker of for some genius from another country who went to one of our "prestigious" universities on a grant or scholarship from the American taxpayer so he or she can take their expertise to the homeland and exploit America's misplaced largess?

2008 Aug 16 09:28 AM

[mollytjm:]

ditto rmc1301! i had the same thought. i have had many macs over the years and none of them took very long to boot up and they always woke up instantly. i'm sure the time is running out for antiquated pc type operating systems. but Mac OS is not in that category. Apple already has an internet without your computer...it's called an iPhone.

2008 Aug 16 11:01 AM

[pabs:]

well lets see we have the iphone whos main strength is... ?
oh yes thats right its o.s.
perhaps a web analogy would have made your points more relevant but that is old news
somebody please screen these marginal writers

2008 Aug 16 11:22 AM

[Steve in Au...:]

Maybe I'm missing something here, or not understanding what they (Intel) means, but with regard to "On Thursday, Intel (INTC) talked up software that can wake a system out of sleep mode to take a PC phone call", don't computers already do that? I believe that all of my Macs have had the capability of waking from sleep from incoming calls, system admin requests via Ethernet, etc., and then going back to sleep when done. So do PCs not do this? What additional functionality is Intel providing here?

2008 Aug 16 06:05 PM

[iNeal:]

This is like saying auto makers plan to make an end run around the engine. I can see an OS that was so simple it would all be firmware. And all apps would be online. That's just web computing. It's kinda here already, but it's not for everyone. It seems like the writer doesn't understand how a computer works, but I'm no expert myself.

2008 Aug 17 01:12 PM