On Visa and Commodities: An Addendum

Visa (V) has a great model and in the long run will be a great stock. Visa, once the economy rises and we have a sound financial sector, will continue to go up to eventually surpass MasterCard (MA).

But recent events show that Visa, like any other stock, is not bullet proof. Visa is susceptible to the financial sector. It is susceptible to the economy. It is susceptible to a BEAR market. It is susceptible to the rise in oil. Not because I say so. Because Wall Street says so. Despite the fact that Visa had stellar earnings, it did not rise to the expectations of many.

I predict Visa will have a new leg this year. It may even see 90. I see signs that point to an illusionary rise in the financials. Mainly due to one analyst boasting that the financials have hit a bottom (I disagree), the drop in oil prices, and out of favor commodity markets.

I wrote another article on the inelasticity of supply side oil prices. The acceleration to this scenario will be if there is a military confrontation with Iran later this year. The ingredients for such an event happening is becoming more real. I say be ready. I plan to pull out of Visa once it breaks 80 again, (I bought at the IPO price and high 50s).

Now is a great opportunity, in my opinion, to stack up on commodities. Fertilizers, coal, and oil are dirt cheap. The storm is brewing in my opinion. Should the Iran confrontation occur as I predict, commodities will hit the roof. Timing is everything, especially in the commodities market. That is why I did not panic early in July when commodities went down. I feel that this was a temporary correction. The next commodity rise will happen as soon as supply side effects in oil prices go up. This will happen sooner than you think.

Disclosure: Long in MEE, HK, AGU, IPI, V, ARD, JASO

Comments

[knightowl1953:]

With that, I have had enough of the obvious insecurities you have. We all see what you are V. Give it up and see a doctor.

2008 Aug 19 05:16 PM

[visaman:]

Geez Louizze Guys,

Enough is enough. Can't we get some thoughtful insight on these threads w/o all of you bashing each other. I'm tired of reading this drivel just to get to some useful data spotted throughout, to help in my investing. I don't need to read this and I don't have the time for this crap!! I come here only for what I had hoped was thoughtful insight and useful investing tips not all your bs!!

Can't we keep the posts here to just the topic at hand? You all sound just like each other and even your alias' sound just like each other. You all constantly have to try and bait each other and each and every time you all rise to the occassion, take the bait and continue. And on and on it goes. What good can come from this? Do you think that by responding to the other person's comments you're actually going to make a difference? Do you think they're actually going to change their opinion? What does it matter anyway? Just stick to the topic and ignore the comments, the rest of us already see it for what it all is, just plain GARBAGE!!!!

Having to read your constant useless crap comments shows us again how childish you all are and how little hope there is for humanity!!!

Let's get back to the subject at hand and keep it that way. PLEASE!!!!!

2008 Aug 19 08:21 PM

[mrbill for V:]

VISA pays Dividend of 0.105 per share on 8/29/08 for owners of record
of 8/15/08. Look for an announced increase first quarter 09.

2008 Aug 19 08:24 PM

[mrbill for V:]

VISAMAN: What is going on here is that we would love to have a spirited conversation about VISA, instead it has dissolved into a rant by a poster
V WINNER AKA USER 172125 please join us in his ouster. P.S. Please spend the time to check his past posts. Let's get back to basics.

2008 Aug 19 08:49 PM

[mrbill for V:]

Note: Morningstar has raised it's fair value estimate for Visa from $74. to $80. Expected growth rate of %11.00 for the next five years. Assets are currently %40.00 in cash. TTM'S (trailing twelve months sales) in Millions
V $5,545 MA $4,584 DFS $5,180

2008 Aug 20 07:47 AM

[Brazil Inve...:]

I for one have been reading Seeking Alpha for some time- and am a Visa investor. I have been reticent to join these forums (and of them) as a result of the childish behavior that is constantly on display. I am also a fan of V Winner- as he has put out more information on Visa than anyone else on the web. This article was supposed to be about Visa- but is seems that the author is focused instead on making a fool of himself. So - today- for the first time, I have decided to chime in as there are many of us that actually appreciate V Winner's efforts.

For the record- I checked Mr. Bill's past posts- and I see very little in the way of actual posts. He too seems to be obsessed with the messenger instead of the message.

As a serious investor and someone who has a substantial investment in Visa-I appreciate having a blog devoted to one of my largest holdings.

I think people can judge what V Winner did by going to his blog. They can also see what he has had to say over time.

www.visawinners.com

(Oh-and before I start getting attacked- I am only providing this link so that if people want to begin comparing the contributions of the author to this article or Mr. Bill's brilliant insight)- they can make up their own mind. Enough said.

2008 Aug 20 10:11 AM

[mrbill for V:]

USER 246127 I didn't cause all of the mayhem, and you didn't read his past posts here on seeking Alpha.

2008 Aug 20 10:31 AM

[Brazil Inve...:]

Mr. Bill- I have read many of posts from virtually anyone and everyone posting on Visa since the IPO- I have learned a lot from V Winner- I have learned nothing from you. Why, for example- are you in particular so upset at V Winner- when the author of the article is the one out of line? You seem to have your own insecurity about him- and it is out of line- as the author of the article here is obviously the one out of line.

I, for one, would like to actually go to a visa post- and discuss Visa- instead of this child-like dribble that will not make me any money.

I was very happy to see that institutional ownership increased to beyond 50% (something I learned from the much-maligned V Winner blog!)- So could we get back to the Visa discussion people!!!Please?

2008 Aug 20 10:44 AM

[Plantinseeds:]

Wrong place to post this but IMHO it is time to get back in the oil game.
The US may be finally somewhat cutting back on oil usage but the rest of the world isn't standing still. If Opec cuts back on production in September like they have hinted to....then you will see oil back in the 140's in short order.

2008 Aug 20 11:54 AM

[mrbill for V:]

USER 246127: Again you haven't read the past posts, if you had you would learn that he has attacked every author regardless of what he says, he has his own website which is attack free because he edits it, he recently turned it over to another author so he comes over here and unloads on everyone everyday. I for one will not sit back and let it go unchallenged, i am many times more successful than he will ever dream of being. If you read my posts you will learn i am very respectful and yes i do give advice which i feel well qualified to give. These posts are open to everyone, and for as long as i have been reading these posts not a day goes by without someone being outright insulted. If you feel this is acceptable behavior then good for you, i don't. Seeking Alphas abuse policy is not published and for a while i doubted it existed, however recent events have changed my mind. He recently changed his ID to USER 172125 and lies about it. If there is one thing V WINNER AKA USER 172125 and i agree on is that many new investors due come to this site, they should be protected, they should be able to voice their opinion and yes we should be able point out errors or other points of view, but to personally attack people everyday? If you had done your homework you would know he has very little credibility in business, so you like his writing style and you are willing to overlook everything else? Stay tuned some exciting developments are occurring right now. It is suppose to be an open discussion for all, not to be dominated by a know it all who can't back up his own facts a lot of the time. Common sense should tell you that if you attack someone they will strike back. Don't you think 333+ posts in a few months is over the top and clearly out of line for a casual VISA Blog. And this is just the VISA blog site. It was the man himself in the early days who unequivocally said V would never drop below $75.00 in his lifetime as well as other laughable predictions. And anyone who dared challenged this was treated with you know what. Unfortunately many people bought into this advice and are paying the price now. Visa is a great long term hold, it has it's own problems such as to many shares out and it looks like profit taking will be the result of every run up in the foreseeable future, hence the sideways trading we have been experiencing lately. Listen everyone if you really want to learn a lot about VISA why don't you go to VISA'S website and read all that they have to offer, there will never be a substitute for your own research. I don't have a problem with someone who is very passionate and over zealous about something but i do have a problem when told we are all a bunch"children,simplet... etc",the list is endless. I am going to step back for a while as the new developments unfold but will respond to abuse as i see it. Here is the email address if you would like to report abuse on this blog, be sure to ask about the abuse policy and remember to mention they should look at past posts. Thanks to the good people and authors of this site, i for one really appreciate. I'll be watching.
contact-editorial@seek...

2008 Aug 20 12:55 PM

[User 189906:]

I agree with you. I am in the UK and I also learnt a lot from V Winners posts. I am not at all sure I want to read many more posts on this group as they seem childlike in the extreme. Reuters posts at the very least do not have this kind of rubbish.
UK poster.


On Aug 20 10:44 AM User 246127 wrote:

> Mr. Bill- I have read many of posts from virtually anyone and everyone
> posting on Visa since the IPO- I have learned a lot from V Winner-
> I have learned nothing from you. Why, for example- are you in particular
> so upset at V Winner- when the author of the article is the one out
> of line? You seem to have your own insecurity about him- and it is
> out of line- as the author of the article here is obviously the one
> out of line.
>
> I, for one, would like to actually go to a visa post- and discuss
> Visa- instead of this child-like dribble that will not make me any
> money.
>
> I was very happy to see that institutional ownership increased to
> beyond 50% (something I learned from the much-maligned V Winner blog!)-
> So could we get back to the Visa discussion people!!!Please?

2008 Aug 20 02:04 PM

[knightowl1953:]

How is the author out of line? I posted an article and this Vwinner attacks me personally. Adding to this, the whole thing started when I decided to say on Vwinner's blog that I thought V would not see 100 this year just prior to 2Q earnings. Jon decided that this was too negative. So he deleted my opinion just like I if was in a communist country. So this so called expert boasted prior to 2Q earnings that Visa would never see below 75 and would see 100 before summer ends. This is very dangerous. I feel sorry for those that took his advice and bought V in the high 80s thinking it would go higher. The bottom line is if you disagree with someone fine. But V goes beyond that. He is the only one that is right and everyone else is wrong. That is being childish and immature. The guy really needs help and is really not worth wasting time on. So all you silly backers of Vwinner stay on his blog and let the rest of the investment world alone.
I hope Mr. Bill that you are successful in getting this clown off Alpha. You are dojg a great service. Thank you!!!!!

2008 Aug 20 03:51 PM

[knightowl1953:]

Looks like oil is finding resistance at 115. Gasoline inventories were also lower than expected despite crude oil being higher. I agree with Goldman Sach's assesstment as I am a believer in Peak Oil theory. If this is the beginning of a new leg it only took oil a month and one half to bottom out. Here come the commodities if that is the case. I agreed with many that recommended, like myself, that this month was the time to buy commodities.

2008 Aug 20 04:03 PM

[Brazil Inve...:]

Ok- this site is officially gone yahoo-like. You people are absolutely ridiculous. Mr. Bill- It sounds like you have a major case of V -Winner envy- to take so much time to be so concerned about what another member posts on this site makes you sound like a 12 year old.

Knightowl- come on - grow up. You sound like a child as well.

Are you both grown men or teenagers.

You are all being hypocritical as you continue to attack someone who has obviously put out much more (both in quantity and credibility) information about Visa.

I was curious to see what the three individuals have actually contributed to this site so I took a look at all three of your own histories on Seeking Alpha and found very little redeeming value in any of your own contributions. As they say - men in glass houses should not throw bricks. From what else I was able to gather none of you even have experience in the financial services or investment business.

Please- do us all a favor and grow up. As I have better things to do with me time I will reserve any and all comments I have in the future to Visa.

One last thing knightowl- you have taken a Visa forum and turned it into an oil forum. Are there not better places to post your comments about energy?

Last- and getting back to substance- I must say (if we can focus on the article itself) that I don't find much of value there as well.

Let us all try to move forward and keep the focus on Visa. That is why I came here- not to hear what I assume (perhaps incorrectly) grown men whining about 'V Winner'- do you all get together for manicures together as well???

2008 Aug 20 05:30 PM

[knightowl1953:]

You are entitle to your opinion as I am mine. Vwinner has a history of child-like attacks on many authors. I am not going to just sit around and take it. You want to defend Vwinner (yourself?) good for you. Just like I am entitle to say the guy is worthless. His only point is to attack others, no matter what the content. He is a menace, like a coakroach, and hides under other names because he is a sick individual. Go ahead. Get your kicks. But if there is one thing I hate is a pompous ass. And Vwinner takes the prize. So go ahead. Keep attacking others. It is not going to stop me one bit on voicing my opinion. Again, moron, I have 30 years of risk management experience and a degree in economics and industrial relations. I am a small investor, yes. But I will continue to say what I want and please as long as Alpha sees fit to print it. If you don't like it, take it on with them. But continued attacks just makes you absolutely with no credibility, Vdress.

2008 Aug 20 06:22 PM

[V Winner:]

First- let me say - THANK YOU ALL FOR THE ATTENTION!.

I feel honored that so many people have taken an interest in me- the one and only V Winner! I would like to first thank my mother and father, my wife, friends, and associates. You have all helped me to reach such prominence on seeking alpha. Bravo! Oh- and before I forget - let me thank user 246127, 189906, and 172125 for your kind words and support.

Ok- first- this has to be the funniest series of posts I have ever read on any finacial site or blog. I have had a chance to read all of these wonderful and nasty comments people have made about me- and really don't have anything to say about my detractors. I would comment as a general rule that your time would be better spent doing research and making investments than worrying about me (just an opinion).

I would also like to say that I find it quite comical that people are complaining about me insulting people while simultaneously hurling personal attacks (seems sort of hypocritical).

If anyone wants to know what I think about Visa (sort of the pupose of the Visa forum!)- I have a blog devoted to Visa:

www.visawinners.com

All of my opinions are on my blog (and I can assure you that I have been misquoted several times in the preceeding posts).

We also have a few other blogs (linked to Visa Winners)- and my e-mail is on the site should any of you wish to hear directly from me. I love Visa- and feel it is a wonderful company.

As far as some of the negative people - there are always going to be negative people consumed with envy, anger, frustration and despair. I feel pity for them and hope they are able to find success and happiness in their lives so that they may contribute something productive to society in general- and to investors in particular. This is the only thing I have ever tried to do with my blogs and sites and newsletters- and posts- and brokerage; help people to help them selves.

I feel no animosity for those poor unfortunate souls (even those that falsify my identity- or produce fictitious e-mails or posts). As I've said- it is very simple to verify what I think or have thought just visit any of my blogs and its all there.

Good luck to all of you invested in Visa- it is a wonderful company with a great future. Good luck to all on Seeking Alpha- friend of foe.

Jon

PS- THIS is the only post that represents my true feeling- you can dismiss any previous posts as someone else's as they are not mine!
Also, as I don't have the endless time or energy (as some of these people seem to) this will be my ONE and ONLY response to this nonsense. As other gentleman so eloquently put it- GROW UP GUYS!

2008 Aug 21 03:25 PM

[mrbill for V:]

I rest my case in chief.

2008 Aug 21 05:22 PM

[knightowl1953:]

I have decided to move forward on this matter. We all have better things to do with our time. This is a forum about exchanging ideas. Some ideas will be disagreed by some. An author may be totally wrong about a topic. An author may also be toally right. The stock market is not an exact science. I have seen many so-called analysts on CNBC be totally wrong about a subject. But one thing they have and we all have is the right of free speech. So moving forward, we need to respect each others ideas no matter what. We all need to be professionals. But I give a warning to anybody out there that tries to deny someone, anyone from voicing their ideas. Me and many others on this Alpha forum will not tolerate bashers, disrescpect, and outright attacks. We have a force now and we will used it to the letter of the law to protect anyone that is harass in anyway. So let's be professionals. Thank you.

2008 Aug 22 07:49 AM

[knightowl1953:]

And one more thing. Anyone out there that takes the advice of anyone on these forums and loses money deserves what they got. Anyone investing solely on what anyone says has no business in the stock market. Stay with a money market. A serious investors needs to do their own research and base investments on what they know not what someone else says. So do your research and invest on what you know. No professional, no matter the experience, knowledge, and track record is always right. So if you make an investment on what others say and it goes bad, you deserve what you get.

2008 Aug 22 07:56 AM

[V Winner:]

If I may be so bold as to actually post about Visa :) , a gentleman named Anthony forwarded this to me. Great news regarding the DFS lawsuit-
directly from the Visa Corporate Website:

www.corporate.visa.com...

Statement by Visa Inc. Regarding Summary Judgment Rulings in Discover Litigation


SAN FRANCISCO, August 22, 2008 --


"Visa is pleased that the court resolved several disputes in this case at this stage. Among other things, the court:



Dismissed Discover's claims of debit monopolization against Visa; and
Rejected Discover's allegations of an inter-association antitrust conspiracy between Visa and MasterCard.

"As a consequence of these summary judgment rulings, Discover cannot challenge the legality of the agreements Visa has signed with its debit issuance partners. As such, it is unlikely the Discover litigation will have a significant impact on Visa's ongoing business operations.


"In addition, the court granted collateral estoppel on a limited number of issues that were determined in an earlier, related lawsuit. This ruling, however, does not establish all the elements of Discover's claims. Discover must still prove the remaining elements of its case and any damages at the upcoming jury trial.


"Visa believes it will be clear to a jury that it is Discover's own business model and decisions - not the actions of competitors - that have limited its options in the marketplace. Discover has been free to engage in bank issuing partnerships since 2004, but has yet to demonstrate that it can do so in a meaningful way.


"Although we expect Discover will be unable to prove the level of damages that it seeks in this case, Visa remains committed to resolving legal challenges in a manner that allows us to remain focused on our business activities. To that end, as part of the Visa Inc. restructuring process, the company developed a retrospective responsibility plan that addresses potential liability in certain U.S. litigation ("covered litigation"), including the Discover case. Additional information regarding the company's retrospective responsibility plan is available in the company's Final Prospectus, dated March 18, 2008, at sec.gov."

Nice way to end the weekend, thanks Anthony-

2008 Aug 24 08:10 PM