Is There a Future for NG Powered Vehicles? 52 comments
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While GM (GM) tinkers with its much ballyhooed electric car named the Volt, Americans are busy maxing out their credit cards to get to work.
Although the Volt and similar offerings from competitive automakers promise a renaissance for drivers worldwide, the will very likely only be "boutique" vehiles for the next several years. It is predicted that the Volt will cost around $45 thousand when introduced, inluding its $15K replaceable battery pack. But it won't be even an option for many car owners, especially the millions who are "upside down" (owe more than they're worth) in their SUV's due to $4 a gallon gasoline.
So it looks like high mileage compacts and hybrids, which are powered by gasoline and electricity, will rule the American roads for the foreseeable future. This is not an altogether dismal prospect, either. New compact cars and hybrids that average 30-40 mpg or more will further reduce U.S. gasoline demand, and resulting lower prices can only benefit beleaguered SUV and light truck owners at the pump, as well.
But what about natural gas [NG] powered vehicles? Do they have a place in our future? Billionaire T. Boone Pickens thinks so. A key element of his "Pickens Plan" is to utilize LNG (liquefied natural gas) as a transportation fuel for heavy trucks, where electric power is incompatible for this use. And CNG (compressed natural gas), which has capably powered fleet vehicles (eg. delivery trucks and taxicabs) for decades, is likely to expand its role in this capacity, as well.
Of course, all the new use of NG in transport is dependent upon availabilty and price. Unlike oil, NG is produced domestically, and the U.S. has A LOT of it. In fact, as the result of improved drilling techniques, we now have reserves that represent over a 100 YEAR supply. And that doesn't count any NG we may find on the OCS (outer continental shelf) if it's opened up as expected for increased exploration.
There isn't a single worldwide price for NG, either. Although it is transported throughout our nation via a vast system of existing pipelines and trades daily in futures markets, gas prices are regional in nature. For example, it's alot cheaper in Texas and Louisiana where much of it is produced than in the Northeast, which is at the other end of its long journey through underwater, above ground and underground pipes.
These price differences are also prevalent in states like Utah and Oklahoma, which have significant NG production facilities. This accounts for the fact that CNG sells for the equivalent of less than $1 in these states, and public refueling is widely available for privately owned CNG powered cars and trucks.
While that's great for those lucky drivers, what might this mean to the rest of us? That's dependent upon two variables, which will go a long way toward determining NG's future as a transportation fuel in the U.S. First and foremost, we will need cars and trucks that can run on it. Although domestic automakers produced "dual-fueled" (gasoline + CNG) vehicles for several years (primarily between 2000-05), they were sold mostly to commercial fleets, and production was ended due to lackluster sales. Of course, that was before gasoline prices skyrocketed.
And, second, if CNG cars and trucks are to gain in popularity, we're going to need public CNG refueling stations across America. While Mr. Pickens is building his own LNG depots, and centralized CNG refueling is fine for taxis and delivery trucks, most of us will never be able to go our favorite convenience store to fill up unless it has CNG pumps. The most likely places where these may be located initially are in states and communities where NG is produced nearby, of course.
So, are we likely to see CNG powered vehicles in our future? The answer is a qualified "Yes." If automakers build them again, even on an "order only" basis, and you live in proximity to an NG pipeline or production facilities, CNG may be coming to a "gas station" near you before you know it. And if you don't, you stand to benefit, as well. Every gallon of CNG that's pumped means another gallon of expensive oil we won't have to import from foreign oil producers. and billions of dollars we won't be sending overseas each year.
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This article has 52 comments:
push.pickensplan.com/f...
jegan ;-)
propane - we have 2 tunnels here in baltimore where carrying liquefied combustible gases is illegal.
> jack
Also, the infrastructure of public CNG filling stations might be less of a hurdle than you think, as it is possible that appliances sold for home use could allow for home fueling from the natural gas line that already comes to your house (for many Americans).
However, let's also consider this. Right now, we produce about as much natural gas as we consume. We import some. But if a significant portion of our automotive fleet were converted to CNG, our consumption of natural gas would explode. Pickens plan deals with this by taking all those natural gas power plants off-line and replacing them with wind farms. We'd have to do something drastic like that to prevent the cost of natuiral gas from sky-rocketing (more than it already has, that is). Full disclosure--I work for a natural gas E&P company, so skyrocketing natural gas prices would be pretty super for me personally. But for the country, not so super. I bring it up because any large-scale change as advocated here and by Pickens is likely to have some big unintended economic consequences, some good and some bad.
I believe I asked you this some time ago. To your knowledge are CNG powered cars and trucks illegal in the Harbor Tunnel?
I suppose one answer is not if they don't know they're there.
By the way, there are significant tax incentives for owning a CNG powered vehicle. A $4,000 federal tax credit, and some states offer
tax savings, too. Utah, for instance, has a $3,000 credit for new and used CNG vehicles registered for the first time there.
OK, I'm with you. But a crutch is just what we need right now. Indeed, Honda says its CNG powered Civic GX is simply a precursor to an H2 car.
If you don't mind, what are some of the challenges Pickens faces in utilizing LNG powered heavy trucks? I understand they're building the specialized motors for them now. Is the fuel more dangerous to handle than gasoline?
Burning NG in transportation is the first practical step to REPLACING oil/gasoline.
Once there, it's an easy step to REPLACE NG (and leave it stored in the ground) by using above-ground grown and renewable biofuels.
Hopefully, long before that we will have fully developed and implemented the burning of fuels in injected containers (not engines; no moving parts!) and are capturing all the heat (90+% of original energy) with burner-encapsulated direct-coversion-to-el... state-devices powering hybrids with the only on-board stored energy being the biofuel tank capable of being filled at all the existing fueling stations that currently exist.
Understand, please, that by capturing all the waste heat mentioned above, we will actually need only 1/3 of the existing service station pumps - that's because we currently throw away 70% of the energy, or 70% of all the gallons we pump, AS WASTE HEAT.
WE WILL NEED TO PROCESS, TRANSPORT, DELIVER, PUMP, CONSUME and grow ONLY 1/3 OF THE 20 MILLION GALLONS A DAY.
Now chew on that.
FACTOR THAT INTO THE EQUATIONS FOLKS. THAT ALSO MEANS WE NEED TO GROW ONLY 1/3 OF THE BIOFUELS THAT MOST FEARMONGERS SAY WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH LAND OR FARMERS, ETC.
The third practical step in transportation is electrifying the inter/intrastates with electric ferries for cargo and people, and if need be, hybrids.
We only need some 8 Quads of electric to replace all the coal, gas and oil generated electricity, to leave the hydrocarbons in the ground; and we will still use most of the 12 Quad electrical distribution system we alreay have.
No more wasting of 70% of the energy from oil, gas, coal, etc.
Just be using the free, readily available, forever solar and wind........at whatever efficiency we can capture it, with no waste.
And that on dryland currently in CRP programs where we pay farmers to DO NOTHING. That is a great opportunity to readjust subsidies (tax dollar spending!), isn't it.
In fact, if we give the farmers all the subsidies, tax breaks, research dollars, etc., we give from Detroit to Houston, and the resgt of DC handouts, all those folks would become dirt farmers. Yes, we would retrain them into doing real work - it's the fair thing!!
> jack
Or we could substitute SUGAR for corn. It contains 6X times the energy, and Brazil has proven it works. Alot of sugar is grown in the U.S. (and Central America), and alot more could be.
We could start by ending the 81-cent a gallon subsidy for corn ethanol and revoking existing sugar tariffs, but we won't. A large lobby has grown up around corn ethanol that was initiated to help out broke corn farmers. Now we're stuck with the stuff.
Interesting that you mentioned NYC. They could sure use the improved vehicle exhaust that NG generates. The EPA says the Civic GX is the cleanest car they ever tested, including the Prius hybrid.
Natural gas is the means by which we can remove those grasping, greedy hands from around our economy's neck. I have stated that we don't need to "invent" anything, or need a "Manhattan" type effort or an equivalent "crash" program similar to the man on the moon project, but I was dead wrong. We as a nation need to expend the equivalent effort immediately that we did in the programs mentioned above. We must invent the motivation, the expertise and the unified national effort to regain control of our economic future and we cannot do it by continuing the massive wealth drain currently dragging us toward third worldom.
Why would anyone who calls himself or herself an American, not do their absolute utmost to get our country's economy under our control rather than that of a bunch of foreign despots who hate our very guts.While smirking their way to their banks with OUR dollars. Let them drink their damn crude; a filthy, murdering substance that we do not have, cannot afford, should not want and certainly do not need.
The necessary effort we need is to demand that our Congress lead the way toward an independent future by promoting programs necessary to switch the nation to a transportation system grounded on natural gas.
A letter to your Senators and Representatives at both the state and federal level would be an excellent beginning.
You're right about Manhattan and Moon Program empahsis, and LEADERSHIP - but it's going to be the Boone's and Warrens cause DC LEADERSHIP IS CONFLICTED!!!! Currently, they can't handle any programs that don't tickle their CONTINGENT, WHATEVER IT MAY BE. AND THE CONTIINGENTS ARE ON MANY SIDES OF ISSUES.
You see, DC can't think and do clearly - short of Executive Orders (and of course dictates from one side, the fuzziness side of the Court!).
Your other foot is getting rid of NG use. Interim use only. The final answer to transportation is ELECTRIC RAILROADS, INTER/INTRASTATES AND BIOFUEL HYBRIDS.
ALL US NATURAL HYDROCARBONS STAY STORED IN THE GROUND.
AND YES, WE'LL MAKE (GROW) SOME BIO FOR ORGANIC BASED PRODUCTS.
AND NO, WE WON'T GASIFY OR LIQUIFY COAL TO BURN IT - AT MOST, WE'LL MAKE ORGANIC BASED PRODUCTS IF AND WHERE NECESSARY - SAME FOR ANY CYCLIC ORGANIC SYNTHAFICATION. MAYBE WE'LL TURN ON A PUMPER NOW AND THEN.,
I find that I am getting very wary about advice being offered 'freely' these days. So much of it can be traced back to corporate interests.
So let me declare now that, for economic and environmental reasons, we promote migration of ICE vehicles to Plug-ins - see: plug-inAustralia.org
Personally, after being screwed by the arabs, the oil companies and govt oil taxes all these years, I am determined that the time has come, not just for countries to become energy independent, but our family as well.
The only way I can see to do that is via solar or wind de-centralised electricity generation connected to the grid for home and business use and that specifically includes our vehicles.
As soon as Concentrated Solar Systems become available at a price which, when amortised over the life of the system (20 years) is more or less equal to the cost of electricity from the grid.
Fortunately that objective is getting closer with Concentrated Solar (CPV) and Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PHEV's)
We recently traded in our much beloved Subaru on a Prius. This cut gas costs in half, but more importantly opened up the possibility of adding an off-the-shelf plug-in conversion kit should the price of oil justify that before Toyota introduce their own plug-in version in 2010.
We'll probably end up paying a bit more but I figure it's worth it to lose that feeling of being screwed....../Chris
Those millions of car batteries will require all the nickel in the world to make, so don't expect electric cars to go mainstream until EEstor gets its ultracapacitor working!!
Check out my idea.
push.pickensplan.com/f...
Statewide monthly gas well gas production for Chesapeake Operating:
Oct 07 32.9 Nov 07 31.5 Dec 07 31.1 Jan 08 29.9 Feb 08 27.4 Mar 08 27.8 Apr 08 25.7 May 08 25.1
So, production plummeted by 24% within 8 months. Within these 8 months NG prices surged from 6.17 (Q3 2007) to 11.34 (Q2 2008).
Also: According to Texas RRC, output from the Barnett Shale peaked in Dec 07 with 3.07 BCF and declined to 2.61 BCF (May 08) so far.
Shale NG is hot air, just declining too much.
Funny how we're coming up with all these new shale gas fields in the space of a few years, isn't it? Could be we have MASSIVE domestic gas reserves we never explored for. Not to mention the OCS.
But Boone's not taking any chances. That's why he's developing wind farms, to take NG off the electric grid so it can be substituted for gasoline and diesel as a transportation fuel.
And by the time we need them, we may well have surmounted the technological issues for developing gas hydrates. They have 160X the energy of NG, and the U.S. holds the world's largest known reserves.
But we're SO far away from that. Maybe they'll be making meaningful contributions by, say, 2050. Or maybe not. It depends to a great extent on what the government does. The LESS they interfere with markets, the BETTER our chances. But so far, at least, they're going in the OPPOSITE direction.
We're very LUCKY in America, you know. Seems like the right guy shows up at the right time when we need him most. Other examples might be Edison, Ford, FDR, Reagan, Friedman and Gates. I'm sure we can think of several others.
Pelosi owns 22,000 shares of CLNE. The Dems behind T.Boone would make investing in this area a worthwhile risk
On Aug 19 01:46 PM paulk8756 wrote:
> Boone is the only guy who has a chance for the foreseeable future.
> He isn't cowed by their lobbyists, knows more than their consultants
> and doesn't need their money.
>
> We're very LUCKY in America, you know. Seems like the right guy shows
> up at the right time when we need him most. Other examples might
> be Edison, Ford, FDR, Reagan, Friedman and Gates. I'm sure we can
> think of several others.
On Aug 18 10:29 AM paulk8756 wrote:
> Ozarker,
>
> If you don't mind, what are some of the challenges Pickens faces
> in utilizing LNG powered heavy trucks? I understand they're building
> the specialized motors for them now. Is the fuel more dangerous to
> handle than gasoline?