WASDE: Corn Stocks Decline To Lowest Since 1995

Includes: CORN, SOYB, WEAT
by: T. Marc Schober

The USDA's October WASDE had some big changes, but was in line with analysts' expectations. Corn yields remained declined slightly, but 2011 stocks were cut drastically due to September's stocks report and are now the lowest since 1995/96. Soybeans headed in a different direction as yields were increased by 2.5 bushels and with that came increases in almost every category except price. Prices estimates dropped for all three grains.


The average corn yield in the U.S. was 122.0 bushels per acre, only a 0.8 bushel decrease from last month. Decreased yields in Illinois were only partly offset by increased yields in North Dakota and Minnesota. U.S. 2012/13 corn production was forecasted down 21 million bushels due to decreased yields.

A 100 million bushel reduction in U.S. exports for 2012/13 was a result of the slow pace of sales and competition from Brazil. Corn season-average farm price has been lowered $0.10 on both ends of the range to $7.10-$8.50 per bushel.

Due to the September 1 stocks report, U.S. beginning stocks for 2012/13 were decreased by 193 million bushels. Ending U.S. corn stocks for 2012/13 were estimated at 619 million bushels, a 114 million bushel decrease from September.

Global coarse grain supplies in 2012/13 were estimated to decrease 4.0 million tons, mostly due to the reduction prospects for EU-27, Serbia, Canada, and the United States. Global 2012/13 corn exports were also lowered by 1.8 million tons, with the largest reduction coming from the United States.


2012/13 U.S. soybean production has been projected up 226 million bushels to 2.860 billion bushels due to increases in planted area and yields. Average soybean yield was projected at 37.8 bushels per acre, 2.5 bushels above last month's projection.

Exports for 2012/13 were increased by 210 million bushels to 1.265 billion bushels due to increased pace of exports, increased supplies, and lower prices. U.S. 2012/13 ending stocks were increased by 15 million bushels to 130 million bushels. The 2012/13 average soybean price was lowered by $0.75 on both ends of the range to $14.25 to $16.25 per bushel.


2012/13 U.S. wheat ending stocks was decreased by 44 million bushels to 654 million, due to higher feed and residual disappearance. Due to the latest Small Grains report, 2012/13 U.S. wheat production was raised by 1 million bushels.

Slower shipment pace and stronger than expected competition lowered 2012/13 wheat exports by 50 million bushels. The season average wheat price for 2012/13 was projected lower to $7.65 to $8.55 per bushel.

Global 2012/13 wheat exports were lowered 4.0 million tons mainly due to reductions in Australia, U.S., EU-27, and Canada.


Harvest has taken center stage and we look forward to more yield data as almost three-fourths of the U.S. corn crop has been harvested. We will be keeping a close eye on a variety of issues as many questions still remain unanswered that effect the agriculture sector i.e. Farm Bill, Renewable Fuel Standard, Presidential Election, and Fiscal Cliff, resulting in an uncertain end to the 2012 year.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.