Obama Plays - Fast Money Recap (8/27/08)

by: Joan Wickham

Recap of CNBC's Fast Money, Wednesday August 27.

Oil and Gustav - Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM)

Melissa Lee mentioned that “there was a jump in crude oil today as a result of the Hurricane Gustav.” Many investors are speculating the hurricane will hit the Gulf Coast. Lee questioned whether this move is sustainable. Guy Adami said he was not sure if the move was sustainable but talked instead about taking advantage of Exxon Mobil. He said “every time Exxon Mobil goes to $78-$79, it becomes a value play.” He said to sell it when it gets to $82-$83 and to buy it back again if it drops to the $78-$79 range. Jon Najarian said the “the durable goods numbers was fantastic, which is why the market was up nicely.”

Natural Gas vs. Crude Oil

The Chart of the Day showed natural gas vs. crude oil. Joe Terranova said “it is all about supply and all about investment” that is moving crude oil and natural gas. He said this is why the chart shows that crude oil has held up nicely compared with natural gas. Najarian said he would be a buyer of natural gas. He mentioned a ratio between the prices of crude oil and those of natural gas. He said the ratio is typically about 9.2 but is now about 14, which he feels makes natural gas a buy.

The Markets & News - Fannie Mae (FNM), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB)

Quint Tatro said it was nice that the markets were up today but said the “volume is pitiful.” Since the markets have been trading at relatively low levels, he said it makes it hard for him to be bullish. Lee brought up an announcement released after the market closed from Fannie Mae reporting some management changes. The firm is replacing its CFO. She mentioned that the stock remained relatively flat on the news. Adami ignored the Fannie Mae news and simply said that Johnson & Johnson will continue to go higher. Najarian said he wouldn't want to trade either Fannie or Freddie. He said he “feels both stocks have death written on them.” Adami said U.S. Bancorp is doing everything right, but “you have to trade it.” The stock has moved up since he has been recommending it and he now suggests “it's time to take money off the table.”

Tech News and Rumors - Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Research In Motion (RIMM)

Lee mentioned that there are some rumors that new products might be coming out in the second half of 2008 from Apple. Terranova said “when the markets turn, technology is going to move to the upside.” As a result, he remains bullish with Apple and Research In Motion.

More Stocks - Aflac (NYSE:AFL)

Adami brought up how airliners are “just trading vehicles.” He said “if you think oil is going down, you buy airlines,” and vice versa. Najarian said someone out there believes Aflac is being “shopped around” or could possibly be bought out -- this belief came to be when he noticed strong call option activity with $65 strike price.

Hard Numbers

Joe Lavorgna Chief U.S. Economist of Deutsche Bank, said the “durable-goods number released today were great.” However, while he likes the durable-goods data and feels that the possible upward revision in GDP bodes well for the economy, he feels the market at best will trade sideways. He does not feel it is a good time to buy equities just yet.

Best Performer in Tech – Dell (NASDAQ:DELL)

Lee noted that Dell, which is performing the best in the technology sector, reports earnings tomorrow. Clay Sumner, senior analyst of FBR Capital Markets, believes Dell will report strong earnings. In addition, he feels the company is “not getting enough credit on the Street” regarding the strides it has taken and will possibly make this year that are not reflected in the estimates. He reiterated his firm's stance on Dell saying the company will continue to benefit from the emerging markets such as India and China. He believes the stock can go to $30. Sumner's bullish stance on Dell could not change Najarian's mind. Najarian said he does not like Dell and believes Lenovo is better. He thinks Dell is “going back down to $22.”

Action in Home Building - Homebuilders ETF (NYSEARCA:XHB)

Lee mentioned how home-builders have over-performed the market this past month. Tatro said if investors want to get a piece of the homebuilder action, they should take a look at Homebuilders ETF, rather than a particular homebuilder. He said “I like the XHB,” but if you buy it, protect yourself with a stop loss.

Obama Play - TLC Vision Corp (TLC)

Lee mentioned a note that was released today from Goldman Sachs presented a trade investors can benefit from if Obama wins the election. The thesis is that if more people become insured as a result of Obama, hospitals stand to benefit. Tatro said for investors to take a look at TLC Vision Corp if they want to do the “Obama” trade.

Retail Future - Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN)

David Schick, retail analyst of Stifel Nicolaus, said the best indicator for the future of many retailers is the back-to-school season. According to his research, the back-to-school season does not look well. He suggested picking retailers that are not depending on the back-to-school or Christmas season. Terranova disagreed a bit, stating that Urban Outfitters “has been performing well and will not change.”

Final Trade – Your First Move for Thursday August 28.

Guy Adami likes EMC (EMC).
Quint Tatro recommends UltraShort Basic Materials (NYSEARCA:SMN).
Najarian likes NetApp AG (NASDAQ:NTAP).
Joe Terranova picked Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE:EXM)

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