My Shanghai Surprise

Last week I disclosed going back into China with a small purchase for most, but not all, clients. Relative to a day or three, the timing was poor. The big macro is that, at down about 60% from the peak, there is a lot of bad news priced in.

Today the Shanghai Composite was up 7.63%. Just as two days was not enough time to be wrong, one week is not enough time to be right. I do not know if a bottom is in or not, but I would expect the real and ultimate bottom to be a little quieter than a 7% rally a day or two after "bottoming."

It is very human to have a reaction to appearing to be very right or very wrong soon after making a trade, but if you buy something with a long time horizon the first week means nothing (assuming no catastrophe or no buy out).

Comments

[Chuck Kasparov:]

What is your buying strategy? If you put in 20% of your total $ every month or so for 5 months, then you should average out the relative timing. If you're trying to time the exact bottom, then shame on you for saying the first week means nothing.

2008 Aug 21 03:44 AM

[Roger Nusbaum:]

?
did you read the post linked to in the first sentence?

2008 Aug 21 06:27 PM