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Are the top value hedge funds going to beat the market every quarter, or just outperform when the market is going up?

Maybe we should ask Will Ferrell, errr, I mean Robert Goulet:

"You win, you always do - that's why I come up here." (Email me if you can find the video, SNL is killing me with the way they take down all of their content.)

All data is from the close on Wednesday.









It is time to update the two hedge fund 13F portfolios we track on World Beta. If you are unfamiliar with the approach, it is spelled out numerous times on my blog - you can just search "13F" and a bunch of posts will pop up.

I am not sure if I am going to continue to track these after the launch (hopefully next month) of AlphaClone. This blog is mostly about investment theory and applications rather than making investment advice and picks, so unless there is a lot of interest I may discontinue the updates. The strategies have outperformed the indexes by around 15% over the past year and a half, and there is some validity behind the approach. The two strategies we have tracked seem to follow the market on the downside but have much higher upside volatility. Those numbers are in line with my historical backtests of 6-12% outperformance per year. If you have a strong opinion either way, let me know. On to the filings!

Hedge Fund Consensus - Top holdings owned by 15 value hedge funds, ranked by number of funds with the same position. Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) was the standout performer at around 18%, and American Express (NYSE:AXP) was the worst performer at -23%. Everyone still loves Qualcomm, but everyone really loves American Express now. Is it a falling knife or just a really cheap stock? Currently AXP is down about -40% from its high.

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) (3)
Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) (3)
Mastercard (NYSE:MA) (3)
QCOM(3)
Target (NYSE:TGT) (3)
Visa (NYSE:V) (3)

WellPoint (WLP) (4)

America Movil (NYSE:AMX) (5)
Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) (5)
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) (5)

AXP (6)

The list of double repeats is at the end of the post.

Hedge Fund Best Ideas - Top two holdings from each of 10 value hedge funds listed below. Qualcomm was the standout performer here as well, and Cadence Design Systems (NASDAQ:CDNS) and News Corp (NASDAQ:NWS) were the worst at around -31%.

AAPL
American Tower (NYSE:AMT)
AMX
AXP
CDNS
CA (NASDAQ:CA)
Cypress Semi (NASDAQ:CY)
GOOG
Helix Energy (NYSE:HLX)
Hewlett Packard (NYSE:HPQ)
Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO)
MA
MSFT
NWS
Research in Motion (RIMM)
SandRidge Energy (NYSE:SD)
TGT
Wells Fargo WFC
WLP
WYE

 

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Baupost Group

Klarman still holds his top positions in News Corp, Wellpoint, and Exterran (NYSE:EXH). New positions include PDL Biopharma (NASDAQ:PDLI) and United Health Group (NYSE:UNH).

Top 10 holdings are:

WLP
NWS
EXH
PDLI
UNH
Domtar (NYSE:UFS)
LINN Energy (NASDAQ:LINE)
Liberty Media (LMDIA)
Theravance (NASDAQ:THRX)
Horizon Lines (HRZ)


----
Blue Ridge Capital

Griffin runs a pretty diversified portfolio, and he added to top names Google and Wyeth. New positions include Anadarko (NYSE:APC) and Visa.

Top 10 holdings are:

GOOG
WYE
AXP
AAPL
Covanta (NYSE:CVA)
Millipore (NYSE:MIL)
Grupo Televisa (NYSE:TV)
Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW)
APC
Discovery (NASDAQ:DISCA)

 

----
Warren Buffett

Not much going on here. Bought some NRG Energy (NYSE:NRG), sold his Conoco (NYSE:COP).

Top 10 holdings are:

KO
WFC
Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG)
Burlington (BNI)
AXP
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)
Kraft (KFT)
Wesco Financial (NYSEMKT:WSC)
US Bancorp (NYSE:USB)
Moody's (NYSE:MCO)

 

----
Eminence Capital

New position in Google and Abbott (NYSE:ABT), sold out of Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) and UPS (NYSE:UPS). Added to top positions American Express (AXP) and Cypress Semi (CY).

Top 10 holdings are:

AXP
CY
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL)
Philips (NYSE:PHG)
Fiserv (NASDAQ:FISV)
Quest Diagnostics (NYSE:DGX)
MSFT
SAIC (SAI)
United Technologies (NYSE:UTX)
International Game Technology (NYSE:IGT)

 

----
Greenlight Capital

50% of Einhorn's portfolio is in his top five holdings. New positions in Teradata (NYSE:TDC) and Republic Airways (NASDAQ:RJET).

Top 10 holdings are:

TGT
HLX
MSFT
Ameriprise Financial (NYSE:AMP)
MDC (NYSE:MDC)
Health Management Associates (NYSE:HMA)
Einstein Noah Restaurant (NASDAQ:BAGL)
MI Developments (MIM)
URS (NYSE:URS)
Patriot Coal (PCX)

 

----
Lone Pine Capital

Sold off some of top holdings SandRidge (SD) and America Movil (AMX). Bought new positions in Entergy (NYSE:ETR) and Weatherford (NYSE:WFT).

Top 10 holdings are:

SD
AMX
XTO Energy (XTO)
GOOG
QCOM
ETR
Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST)
WFT
Monsanto (NYSE:MON)
MSC Industrial Direct (NYSE:MSM)

 

----
Maverick Capital

Ainslie added new positions in First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) and CVS Caremark (NYSE:CVS). Sold Qualcomm and Amazon.

Top 10 holdings are:

AAPL
RIMM
AMX
Bank of New York (NYSE:BK)
Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL)
FSLR
Baxter (NYSE:BAX)
AMD (NASDAQ:AMD)
Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN)
Raytheon (NYSE:RTN)

 

----
Okumus Capital

Lots of turnover here. 60% of the portfolio is in the top three positions Microsoft (MSFT), Cadence Design (CDNS), and Office Depot (NASDAQ:ODP). MSFT is a new position and accounts for a third of the portfolio.

Top 10 holdings are:

MSFT
CDNS
ODP
Macy's (NYSE:M)
AutoNation (NYSE:AN)
McGraw-Hill (MHP)
O'Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ:ORLY)
DST (NYSE:DST)
Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE)
CTA

----
Private Capital

Bought a little Sothebys (NYSE:BID), sold out of BEA Systems (BEAS).

Top 10 holdings are:

CA
HPQ
Symantec (NASDAQ:SYMC)
MGM Mirage (NYSE:MGM)
Sprint (NYSE:S)
Royal Caribbean Cruises (NYSE:RCL)
Raymong James Financial (NYSE:RJF)
JW May's (JW)
IGT
Northern Trust (NASDAQ:NTRS)

 

----
Tiger Global

Mentor (MNT) and Trustmark (NASDAQ:TRMK) are new positions, and sold out of Luxottica (NYSE:LUX) and Focus Media (NASDAQ:FMCN).

Top 10 holdings are:

MA
AMT
CSX (NYSE:CSX)
GOOG
AMX
QCOM
Baidu.com (NASDAQ:BIDU)
SBA Communications (NASDAQ:SBAC)
TransDigm (NYSE:TDG)
MercadoLibre (NASDAQ:MELI)

 

----
List of double repeats:

AMT
APC
BID
BNI
CA
CDNS
CSCO
COV
CY
DST
ETN
IGT
HPQ
HMA
HLX
KO
MDC
MSTR
MRVL
NWS
ODP
ORCL
PCLN
RIMM
SAI
SD
TDC
UNH
WFC
WMB
WMT

 

Source: 15 Value Hedge Funds - Portfolio Update