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"Massive" back-to-school Mac computers sales for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) might not mean much to the market on the surface, but when each 25 basis point increase in market share produces an extra US$1-billion in revenue, things start to come into focus pretty quickly.

The strong forecasted sales could drive upside in the company’s fourth quarter, according to Mike Abramsky at RBC Capital Markets. The analyst told clients that data from 4,400 corporate IT buyers and adopters suggest “unprecedented intentions” in the quarter. In the next 90 days, 34% plan to buy a Mac laptop and 30% expect to purchase a desktop.

As a result, he expects Apple’s share of the global PC market will rise to 4.2% in calendar 2009, up from 2.9% in 2007. In addition to the revenue gains this will produce, the analyst said each 25 basis point increase equates to US15¢ in earnings per share.

One reason for the surge in demand is the halo effect produced by the iPhone. RBC said 17% of respondents were more likely to buy a Mac after the iPhone 3G launch. Mr. Abramsky also said there is a 70% chance Apple releases a prepaid iPod/phone and/or iPhone as soon as the fourth quarter, which might push global momentum higher.

He reiterated his “outperform” rating and US$200 price target for Apple shares.

Source: Apple Surge Expected - RBC