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From a purely technical perspective, the parabolic rise in gold may be partially due to the flood of speculators into the commodity. This may not be too dissimilar to the recent spike in oil and oil futures trading.

The August 21st article in The Wall Street Journal titled, The Eagle Has Been Grounded ($), notes the U.S. Mint stopped selling the American Eagle gold coin because the mint's inventories have been depleted. The Journal notes:

"Due to the unprecedented demand...our inventories have been depleted," the Mint -- part of the U.S. Treasury Department -- told its dealers Friday. "We are therefore temporarily suspending all sales of these coins."... The Mint has sold 311,000 ounces of gold coins this year which is about 50% more than was sold in 2007.

Gold chart 1975 to 2008

When the speculators head for the exit, one could see a rapid decline in the price of gold.

Source:

The Eagle Has Been Grounded ($)

The Wall Street Journal

 By: Ianthe Jeanne Dugan

August 21, 2008

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This article has 13 comments:

  •  
    That nice spike here in 1980 has little to do with today for those dollars back in those days are very different than those today...
    Many experts claim adjusted for inflation/time value Gold should be around $2200 per ounce, I am not holding my breath for that either..
    There seems to be alot of funny business going on with the Gold market.. maybe manipulation is a better word..Either way a stable Dollar and Gold will run...(see inflation)

    ..if it's big n hairy and trips over a rock it could be a Yeti..it falls down too..TripRockYeti (i.e.this is a work in progress)
    2008 Aug 22 03:29 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Yeti---Using the 1980 gold price adjusted for inflation makes no sense. That bubble was 3 times the real value of gold at that time. Remember it was a BUBBLE. Bubbles have nothing to do with real value.

    We are in disinflation and gold is headed down now. We are just coming out of another bubble. Short commodities and gold.
    2008 Aug 22 06:17 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    What bubbles (gold market) when FED prints money like crazy trying to bail out banks,
    Remember that gold is a real money that can not be manipulated.
    2008 Aug 22 06:57 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Small investors are buying gold coins while huge sales of gold bars and futures are occurring. Thus the shortage in coin. They always say that small time investors get in too late and take a beating just when something peaks. Maybe we are witnessing that right now.
    2008 Aug 22 07:56 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Remember that at any time a foreign nation can call our debt by selling the treasuries they hold..and exchanging them for oil, Euros, stocks, or gold....
    When they are holding billions of our debt and see no sign of any fiscal responsibility on our part what do you think they are going to do to hold value? You got it. They will trade-in the fiat currency for metal and the USA will experience a massive collapse in currency value.
    Perhaps that's why the recent manipulation occurred... Our Fed sees it coming and decided to protect the largest amount of gold it could control with the use of some fancy paper work.
    Don't bother telling me this can't happen, the sub prime mess is still unfolding and the banks are in the process of covering their losses with cooked books and we all can see it happening in real time.
    In fact, most of the business owners on these boards work as hard as possible to write off every possible deduction real or imagined and hope they get away with it... this is just on a bigger scale and they are much , much better at it than you are.
    2008 Aug 22 09:26 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Gold is nothing more than the messenger.

    Like a thermostat on your car, it serves the purpose of letting you know when your engine is overheating.

    If you think the turmoil in the credit derivatives and credit crisis are over, perhaps its time for more research.

    www.rapidtrends.com/bl.../
    2008 Aug 22 09:54 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The simple facts are out there for all to see,the Fed can & will do as it likes to ensure the Cartel wishes are carried out! Freelance reporters should set up shop in Nations to dig into is setting up offshore Banking Accounts,ie members of Wall Street Corps & members of Congress! It took a rag like the Equrirer to out Edwards & his lies,the MSM is in the tank of big biz!!
    2008 Aug 22 10:54 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    If you want a truer view of things, try this graph with a y-axis log scale and you will see that compared with the 1970s, today's "parabolic" rise is just getting started.
    2008 Aug 22 11:19 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Calling retail investors buying one-ounce eagles speculators? The list of common, everyday English words which have NOT been trashed grows shorter every day.

    G-r-r-r-r

    Bill
    2008 Aug 22 10:26 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Nice call, Bill. Speculating on the price of dollars in real money by exchanging them for gold coins is pretty silly. Futures, options, or GLD are far cheaper, more liquid, and a whole lot easier to buy on credit - all critical traits for speculators. People sell dollars for coins because they want to preserve their wealth, period. The rest is just paper that someone can declare void, and there's no way a second confiscation has much chance of succeeding; ownership is diversified and not many trust the banks enough to use their vaults. Speculation? Not a chance; basic self-preservation is more like it.
    2008 Aug 23 09:22 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Ok CLH if your calling the 2 times the price touched $300 after 1980 so then the price was 2.5 times its value..as in the $300 being support levels. When you speak of shorting commodities and gold sure..but..how far down the road are we talking a few weeks, months or years.? I see this disinflation as a temporary thing..even if we ignore crude oil for a second(which 'seems' to be pulling most all commodities with it for the time being) what I ask is going to be done to consumer prices when the gov't attempts to do something about the $8.7 TRILLION National debt..as you know..? In case anyone forgot, I thought we at a 27 year high in inflation rate..? As oil falls does anyone think consumer prices will fall as well, I say let the crap on the shelves rot til they do drop in price..
    2008 Aug 23 10:52 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    CLH is a basher and LOVES the dollar. If anything, his/her opinions/writings are somewhat comical, they're SO predictable. Short commodities and gold!!! Wow...you work for the government??
    2008 Aug 24 01:19 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I find it incredible that the author can make a connection between 'speculation' and buying 1oz gold coins.

    No doubt if millions were hoarding food he would see this as the sign of a top in soft commodities?

    Pathetic journalism. The people want PMs, demand is too high and so they are being denied. Look on Ebay to see how desperate people are to get hold of real money (and remain anonymous). £12-16 for 1oz silver. £500-£650 or a 1oz Britannia.
    2008 Aug 25 12:03 PM | Link | Reply