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We like a good trade just as much as any investor, but the ProShares Ultra-Short Financials (SKF) has been quite productive at our trading desk.  Playing the short/inverse ETFs isn’t something we do often, but with financials, it’s akin to shooting a sitting duck.    

Not very sportsman-like, but shorting financials has been easy money for obvious reasons.      

During a phone chat with my assistant Luis last week, we discussed our mutual unease with bank stocks.  Yes, financials had rallied off the July lows, but we could not explain why and our conversation deteriorated into pointless babble.   

Alas, Luis snapped us out of our groveling by suggesting we examine insider trading histories for several of the big banks involved in this mess.  Perhaps this would return our joviality and provide an alibi to justify our short-selling debauchery.     

Our anecdotal research yielded some rather disturbing trends in insider sentiment during a period of huge profitability for these companies and their stocks.    

click to enlarge images

Insiders at WaMu (WM) don’t show much conviction during the glory years.

 

Insider selling at BofA (BAC) outgunned buyers by 98%.

Net Wachovia (WB) insider sales were modestly higher than buys. 

 

Wells Fargo (WFC) insiders didn’t inspire confidence either. 

 

       

But, what the hell were the folks at Countrywide (CFC) thinking?  Ouch!  Let go my arm!  I don’t know about you, but this is looks like a massive hemorrhage or a blood bath.

Disgraced former CEO Angelo Monzilo accounts for a lion’s share of this selling spree and we note much of his liquidations were tied to the exercise of options.  However, many CFC insiders were dumping shares and as quickly as possible.   

Although we prepared this riposte of red as humor therapy for ourselves, we can only hope lawmakers and regulators (or their aides) will take this more seriously than we do. 

You don’t need an abacus to realize that banks have been spilling the gruel for many years.  Thus, our public note to Barney Frank and the House Financial Services Committee:  Do you catch our drift?

Disclosure: I do not currently own any of the stocks mentioned in this article.

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This article has 33 comments:

  •  
    Great analysis. Much appreciated. How about a similar analysis for companies like Cisco and Broadcom?
    2008 Aug 22 08:42 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    A homebuilders analysis would be fun as well.
    2008 Aug 22 08:51 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Excellent article. Keep writing. Eye-opening.
    2008 Aug 22 09:43 AM | Link | Reply
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    I don t blame you for not owning any of these stocks. You saved yourself a lot of sleepless nights and headaches.But why do you do this after the bloodbath and not during it? Well this is what they call capitalism at his best,the rich gets richer and the poor poorer.
    2008 Aug 22 09:53 AM | Link | Reply
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    User 138602
    The correct adage is ;
    " The rich get rich and the poor have babies .. "
    2008 Aug 22 10:12 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    This insider trading, mainly at the expense of people who blissfully place their retirement hopes in index funds, is fully sanctioned by the SEC, the so-called guardians of capital markets. The SEC's defense would be that all the facts are disclosed. It's like saying that robbing a bank is no longer a crime because we have installed closed-circuit TV to record the action.
    2008 Aug 22 10:22 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I agree with user 138602. This article is worthless after the financial stocks drops 80%. As usual, the news comes out too late.
    2008 Aug 22 10:30 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    i guess you can find out insider activity before you buy a stock.or you can sell as the insiders begin to dump. i never buy unless i check insider activity.of course this is not 100% foolproff but its the best i can do.
    2008 Aug 22 10:59 AM | Link | Reply
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    Albert you just made a new friend today.I just LOVE your last two sentences. The SEC is not there for you or me it s there to protect the system in place at any cost and mostly at the cost of the small investors and the taxpayers(investors or not ). User 202524 ty for your adage I ll try to remember it for the next time.
    2008 Aug 22 11:00 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    On the contrary, this article is extremely worthwhile. It highlights the dangers of investing in companies that make use of stock options to compensate executives. Far from aligning the interests of insiders and shareholders, employee stock options place insiders at a huge advantage over shareholders.

    Stock option plans are front-running, stock-watering and insider trading all wrapped-up in one and legitimized by the guardians of our capital markets.

    Millions of Americans are foolishly placing their retirement funds in index funds, ETFs and the like. Managers of these funds are "forced" to invest in these stock option disasters. Hundreds of millions of dollars of hard-earned wages are deftly transferred from the middle-class to a handful of executives.

    This inequitable wealth-distribution (legitimized theft) is bad for the social fabric. It’s a stain on our capital markets. Articles like this educate the public. Hopefully one day, legislators and regulators with a conscience will step in and remedy the situation.
    2008 Aug 22 11:01 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Yeah, who gives a rat's ass after the fact???

    All of those "insiders" from the above banks should be fleeced from all the money that they robbed from there own companies...
    2008 Aug 22 11:02 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I would suggest that if one would look under some things that were saidLike get your first etc it would show how corrupted every thing got.... ouch.
    2008 Aug 22 11:33 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    This is a very misleading article. You have include Net Shares option exercises in your sell figures. Actual investment bankers and traders exclude these transactions.

    We an employee exercises in the money stock options, they incur a tax obligation. Employees will therefore exercise their options and immediately sell shares to generate the cash to cover the tax obligation. They often hold the remainder of the shares.

    To call these sell transactions is flat out wrong. Employees are actually acquiring as many shares as they can without dipping into their pocket to pay the taxman. This was especially true for Monzilo. I think we can all agree that he profited while other shareholders got nailed, but your analysis is far from the correct way to demonstrate the point.
    2008 Aug 22 12:36 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Just because it happened doesn't translate into they knew what they were doing. My opinion is that 99+ percent were clueless and lucky. Those insiders that were buying were proven to be clueless.
    2008 Aug 22 12:45 PM | Link | Reply
  •  

    Doesn't it look like the insiders are now buying? The thing about them selling doesing tell me much since there can be many reasons, raising cash to meet personal needs, other investments, pay debt etc.
    But the only reason they buy is because they think the stock is priced right and is likely to rise!!
    2008 Aug 22 12:54 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    PJ568 did you see the numbers? personal needs?how much one needs? Still believe in Santa? must be nice to be that naive,nothing bothers or hurts you. Albert I have to agree with you one more time ,stock options are the source of evil but nobody does anything about it. But where I don t follow you it s when you believe that legislators and regulators might one day have a conscience
    2008 Aug 22 01:33 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    BAC has almost all buys in 2008. Backwards looking assessment here that is for sure. and like others have pointed out insider holdings were increasing as "sells" were used to cover taxes. Very misleading!
    2008 Aug 22 02:04 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    sorry PJ568 I meant mootie about «PERSONAL NEEDS» this is the best joke of the day.Are you one of those insiders mootie?
    2008 Aug 22 03:00 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The question should maybe be one of did we come across a bunch of 'kender' (after some d&d characters who seemed to do a lot of---)" what would happen if---" and the necessary attendent "ooooppss"---?
    It might explain a few things...
    2008 Aug 22 03:25 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    We had no idea this would prompt such vibrant replies.

    In response to those who feel the article is misleading or late to the party, your points are well taken. Our intent was only to get some humor from the irony of situation (exploding bank earnings and bailing insiders).

    We could care less about tax consequences, speculating on motive or whether they were net-share transactions. Only thing we can say with any certainty is that bank insiders were less than sanguine in putting their money where their mouths were. These charts illustrate that point.
    2008 Aug 22 05:15 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Wow! I loved the Countrywide chart. Unfortunately insider transactions aren't as good a guide as they used to be. Buyers are often clueless. I like to limit my review to the CFO. They are often the only one who really knows what the real status of the company is. Founders and CEOs are too caught up in the spiel they're putting out to really sit back and contemplate.

    The best recent example is Thornburg Mortgage. Garrett Thornburg, founder, put in more than $25 million to buy TMA common stock on the open market last year, half at about $10 per share and half at about $25 per share. Today it closed at $0.33.
    2008 Aug 22 08:20 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Option covers or no, the lack of stock purchases speaks volumes (no pun intended). I really don't care if you had to sell your stock when your options vested, or if you sold it because you knew your company was rotten to the core. It's the same type of moral equivocation a criminal defendant makes when they are trying to mitigate their crummy behavior. "I may have kicked him when he was on the ground after I knocked him out, but I didn't stomp on him!" Regardless of the critical distinction, all the judge saw what toothmarks on your Nikes and the victim's teeth all over the crime scene, but I'm sure your explanation is the reason that the judge gave you nine to life instead of 12 to life.
    2008 Aug 22 10:00 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    One more thing - nice to see how sales trickled off and buys increased once the stock prices declined off of their previous highs. Nice touch. Buy low, sell high, right?

    During the Revolution, once the war kicked off, the first thing that every Sons of Liberty in their respective towns was to burn down the County Clerk's offices. That's where the mortgages were recorded. In 2008, the first thing we do is write on our blogs. Then again, they were drunk all of the time, but maybe that means we're too inhibited or "civilized".
    2008 Aug 22 10:06 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The article could have been useful during the years that the public were being ripped off, not now. In fact, its publication can now be harmful - because buying WM around $4 a share should now be encouraged rather than discouraged. Even the charts show less selling activities during recent months and increased buying efforts.
    2008 Aug 23 02:14 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The greatest stock trader of all time stated....a stocks price is never to high to buy or never to low to sell.(short)....from..... REMINISCENCES OF A STOCK OPERATOR...by E Lefevre...
    2008 Aug 23 04:47 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    If u buy a stock at 4 dollars and it goes to 2 dollars u lost 50 percent....A stock does not have a memory of its price a year ago.....A stock is at 4 dollars for a reason......
    2008 Aug 23 04:51 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Why not do the same analysis for AAPL, AMZN, BRCM, CSCO, EBAY, FSLR, GOOG, INTC, MSFT, QCOM, XOM, and YHOO?

    Let me tell you something: insiders at WFC aren't selling much at all, at least a lot less than those insiders at railroad companies, which were heavily pumped by Barron's a couple of weeks ago.
    2008 Aug 24 12:49 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    And how about those morons at WB who bought tons of their own stocks in Nov 2007?

    Of course, AEO boss Schottenstein bought a bunch in Sep 2007. Look how deep under water he already is.

    The guy at CWTR has better timing, sold a lot at 30 and bought back a lot at 5. The stock is at 6 right now.

    GOOG insiders have been selling like there is no tomorrow ever since Jan 2005. Should you ignore the stock or even go short it back then?
    2008 Aug 24 12:59 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    This is hardly profound and any investor who recommended stocks like CFC that the Ceo himself was selling so heavily deserve what they got. Mozilo gave reasons for why he was selling. All i can say is there usually 2 reasons someone did something the one they think sounds best and the real reason.
    2008 Aug 24 02:49 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    This analysis demonstrates nothing.

    Why would an insider want to buy shares, except at a discount through and employee purchase plan, when he is being awarded shares/options every year as part of his compensation? A reasonable rule of them for portfolio diversification is to limit holding of a single stock to less than 5% of the total portfolio. Insider portfolios typically far exceed this limit in company stock due to the use of the stock as compensation, so further purchases are imprudent.

    On the flip side, why wouldn't an insider sell as much stock as possible to reduce his company specific risk?

    This is basic portolio management 101. I would have thought that a financial blogger would exhibit greater understanding of finance.
    2008 Aug 25 09:31 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Good points everyone.

    Insider selling will occur at a great pace at companies where much of the executive compensation is in the form of stock options. As User 1 points out, that's basic portfolio management. I would add that stock option compensation blinds investors to insider sentiment and losing that tool should justify a discounted price.

    Then again, I'm sure that many of these execs, especially Monzilo, knew that their companies were running at an unsustainable pace and taking on huge risk. It was in their interest to boost earnings that way, which boosted the stock price, which allowed them to get very rich exercising options. Of course, taking on all that unsustainable risk doomed their companies, but not before the execs could cash in their options. They'll retire just fine. Shareholders - not so much.

    My conclusion is that options cause a conflict of interest between management and shareholders because management will try to boost earnings short term, even if doing so causes greater damage later. Just paying a steady cash salary, on the other hand, would give management incentive to pursue the long term interests of the company.

    Therefore, we should avoid companies that use this type of compensation. History shows they underperform long-term - and not just financials.
    2008 Aug 25 01:36 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    get rid of the stock option as compensation. end of story. its the biggest root of evil in this country
    2008 Aug 25 04:17 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    your analysis is flawed because insider selling typically vastly outnumbers buying because vast majority of insiders shares came from compensation in the form of shares or options. already having too many shares, insiders are unlikely going to want to buy more. this is especially true for financial firms who give out stocks and options to wider percentage of their employees. a more relevant comparison would be to compare them vs. other companies who have done well. in fact, your charts show that insiders were massively selling even during 03-6 periods when things were booming.
    2008 Aug 25 08:54 PM | Link | Reply