As I recently shared, I have done a 180 degree turn on restaurants. When I wrote earlier this month, I mentioned BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) (12.16, $320mm) as one that I wanted to explore a bit more closely. Well, I paid the price for researching it, as it jumped 20% over the following week. I bought some yesterday near 12. The stock has declined from 24 over the past 11 months, so it is still on sale despite the sharp jump.
While the BJ's concept isn't exactly the greatest novelty since sliced bread, I do believe that it is a strong concept upon which the company executes extremely well. The company began as a Southern California pizza chain 30 years ago and transformed itself into more of a full-scale restaurant when it began brewing its own beer in 1996. The restaurant serves over 100 items and is considered to be value-oriented in the casual dining space. I happened to visit a BJ's in San Antonio earlier this week and found the contemporary atmosphere to be quite appealing, the food delicious, the service impeccable and the price quite reasonable. My kids gave it unsolicited rave reviews. But I am a stock guy, not a restaurant analyst. I reviewed the recent conference call, the 10-K, the most recent proxy, the website and their investor presentation, and it is those data sources that give me the confidence to invest.
I believe that the company is well positioned for growth. With under 80 restaurants, about 1/2 of which are in California, the company has considerable room for expansion. They are targeting 15 openings per year and believe that they could reach 300 over time. The ticket price at the restaurant of about $12 per person is on the low-end for the casual dining industry. How do they deliver what seems to be higher quality for less money? I think that they would point to their mantra of "operational excellence". I would also add that pizza, beer and alcohol, with their very high margins, comprise 38% of sales roughly. The company has minimal debt, in contrast to an industry that tends to have balance sheets with debt representing about 40% of total capital.
I don't believe that there should be much controversy regarding the prospects for the company. The disputes, rather, are more focused on the valuation. I find the stock to be very reasonable considering its growth potential. As you can see in the chart below, the PE, at 22, is a large premium to the market, but it is low relative to both the history as well as the estimated growth of the company. I am also intrigued by the very low valuation relative to book value - just 1.5X.
Another interesting dynamic is the ownership. Insiders, including Jacmar (a distributor that also owns a pizza chain) account for 25% of the shares. The top 5 institutional holders account for about 30%. Meanwhile, shorts account for 16% of all shares outstanding, representing 11 days of trading volume. There has been a little insider buying too. Why the big short-interest? I suggest that part of it may be due to a misguided macro call against restaurants in general. I am confident, too, that many investors are concerned about the large negative free cash flow. The company tends to issue stock every couple of years (watch out, as they are due). Finally, those who look at the PE outside of the context of growth might expect the stock to do poorly solely for valuation reasons.
As I mentioned, I am long the stock and expect it to rise to at least 16 over the next year (based upon a 22 forward PE). I wouldn't be too surprised if it were to test the 10 area. I believe that the tough economy has actually masked the strength at the company and look forward to the easier comps in 2009.
Disclosure: Long BJRI
As for BJRI, I too enjoy their restaurants, and will now be researching the stock...thanks for the article.
I did forget to mention that the company doesn't do franchising, which I believe helps them achieve their goal of "operational excellence" as well as avoid the temptation of short-term financial gains.
Speaking of the concept, if the author's kids like it, are we pitching it as a "family" joint now? Definitely not - just a nice "sports bar" with decent assortment of beer and a menu that offers no signature/unique meals or appetizers.
Author states: "How do they deliver what seems to be higher quality for less money? I think that they would point to their mantra of "operational excellence" but does not explain what that is or quantify it in a meaningful way. What do they do better than other casual dining places? They hedged the commodities spike? They have lower labor cost (doubtful as the majority is in CA)? They have valuable assets to leverage (doubtful as the cost of their real estate sites, especially in CA, have plummeted)?
This is below average analysis for a "bullish" pump on the stock.
Disclosure: I don't owe BJRI
I disagree with your assessment - it is extremely kid-friendly. The place was loaded up with families when I was there. With 100 items, as I mentioned, it seems to be more than a "sports bar".
I am sorry you found my analysis below average. My goal isn't to provide every bit of information that would enable the investor to make a decision, but rather to serve as a starting point. You are welcome to ask for a refund!
Of the working people i know most are spent out.
Now just about everyone is doing a dance like a fritter in a frying pan everytime oil goes down. But the fundimentals seem to remail the same unless they are really smart and frugal they are all upside down in the debt situation. Not mortgage just plain debt. They can't afford to live, and when winter comes they are living from hand to mouth just to survive.
I know someone in the auto finance business and his sub-prime loans on all types of auto industry choices have gone up from at least 17% to over 30% and the fico scores even with people buying more carefully are sickler than ever.
Yes with everyone working in every house as much as possible this is still getting worse.
So people eat out because they are tired and it's a way to relax and save time if they can get a few extra hours work eating out allows them to take the extra hour here and there and fit it into their schedule.
But no one can get ahead has the U.S.A. saving rate increased above 1 and one half percent?
Everyone is hyping everything for any reason they can find a excuse to get you to buy buy buy.
It's like the war in Iraq how much do we have to the blood spilled before someone wakes up and says enough. What a country where were the banking regulators for decades the savings industry went up in smoke now commercisl banks with our savings are selling us out to foreign govts, to keep their cushy jobs and year end bonuses, golden parachutes in tact.
I eat at Darden's Olive garden restaurant not often and mostly Wendy's. Heck people i know that do take the entire family to Mickey Dee"s end up spending about 11 to 12 dollars a person for what a happy supper?
Show me how the senior that lives down the block in or area where the medium income is $84,000 per capita and almost double that per house plus+.
Is going to leave a estate for their family.
The average car is over 9 years old more than ever before for many years.
People are at the breaking point they are coming home from Iraq after three tours without even a job at Mickey Dee's for them to get.
Now where supposed to really feel safe with the restaurent industry. The kids aren't even going to the pizza parlors i see them going back to White Castle . The only thing i see is they all have a cell phone sure they have a deal to keep them hooked on entertaining themelves like two kids with a tin can and a string between them just that dad is stuck with a three and four hundred dollar phone bill they want a new phone as much as they want every pair of new sneakers that come out.
Excuse me but when seniors i know that have sold a house from a older sibling that has passed away and they can't even get enough interest to pay their taxes and needed items to live decently, from the equity of a free and clear 6 hundred thousand dollar house with no mortgage left on it.
That was left to two people where the heck is this country going? Seniors can't afford to live on savings and or even inherited estate values.
People can't even buy in their auto leases or afford a new car or a decent used one. Let's all clap our hands now.
Heck everyone is going to start to cheer because someone is going to play the white knight and buy a few more of our investment houses out of trouble , for how long? Wow tell your kids to save and after thirty years they own their home and they can't afford health insurance or the taxes.Even if everyone lived right near Sea World or Disney , one of which has that great sandwich pavilion that serves all the different beers.
There wouldn't be enough jobs for those so sweet 69 and 70 year old ladies that work there to survive even in central florida for the past decade.
My mother passed this year and i have to say.
"Thank you New York State Senator Ceaser Trunso for taking care of the WW2 veterans that not that long ago were it not for his efforts to help these people with pensions and social security from losing their homes due to our ludicrus taxes here in New York.
I see most people trapped by overspending to survive with debt that many have expressed want to go bankrupt but can't due to assets they have but can't cash out of as they are already above their heads. Even if they could sell they couldn't get enough to live on from the interest rates being offered to them 5 % for ten years on a C.D. F.D.I.C. insured, for ten years!
They can't make it now they are renting rooms to survive after working for 50 years.
No wonder G.E. just got out of the home appliance business they see the writtng on the wall.
People are moving to Ga. moving back and living with their kids if they haven't lost the home the parents gave the kids when they left. No jobs just excuses and a bankrupt savings bank system and the whole country can't live off of E-bay. Now the foreign brides are coming in as fast as the mexicans except they don't work they just hide out and clean houses on the Q.T. so as to not pay taxes.How many people had the money to buy a thouand shares of Apple or rimm.
I am thankful that I was able to take care of my Mom in her old age as dad passed away years ago from smoking. Before Pres; Bill Clinton got the cigeratee companies to sign that settlement.
I guess in southern Ca. maybe enough people can keep the restaurants with a positive profit structure.
Harvard and Oxford &Yale& George Washington University must be wonderful to go to and get a education.
But you can't stay there for ever and this entire system is built like a giant pyramid waiting to implode from it's own weight.
Most of the folks i know in England are just barely getting by and they have socialized mediicine But Tony Blair has gone his way and at least the bank of England has tied to hold their currency together in spite of the printing press we are running like a garbage dump. It looks lke after China and india maybe Mexico will lend us money in 29 years someone has to we sure aren't paying our way in earned money.
Borrowed money but who owns America????
I guess I'll go to White castle and Wendy's when i can. At least we don't live in south Africa, they don't even have enough decent water to drink!
Maybe we an park in the restaurant paring lots after we go out to eat and turn the engine on for 10 minutes every hour and kill a few more polar bears.
Buy that van and some sleeping bags because we may need them. Heck if you can afford the gas for a old motor home Walmart used to let people park over night in their lots in some states. maybe the hospitals will allow the same thing.
Good luck with this restaurant investment.
"When I wrote earlier this month, I mentioned BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) (12.16, $320mm) as one that I wanted to explore a bit more closely. Well, I paid the price for researching it, as it jumped 20% over the following week. I bought some yesterday near 12. The stock has declined from 24 over the past 11 months, so it is still on sale despite the sharp jump."
The best to all of you out there.