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Not sure if I've mentioned it here before, but I'm fond of my handy-dandy eBay-based bankruptcy indicator. It works like this: When high-profile companies are in dire financial straits, or at least employees perceive that to be the case, insiders start selling ... golf shirts and baseball caps.

Back when when Bear Stearns was going under there was a paroxysm of ponchos, pens and golf shirts, one that grew into a flood in the borked broker's dying days. My hypothesis is that something similar happens in most such cases, with disgruntled employees selling off everything that isn't nailed down to try make some money from the impending end.

fannie-freddie-ebayIs there any sign that something similar is going on with eBay sales of Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae stuff? Are we seeing an avalanche of golf shirts and the like from people at either of those places?

Not yet. So far there is only one lonely Freddie Mac golf shirt , and three pieces of Fannie Mae clothing -- and in all four cases the stuff is from an eBay store, not an auction.

So, insiders at these two companies haven't started selling, at least not yet anyway. But watch the golf shirts. They tell all.

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This article has 5 comments:

  •  
    They are not going bankrupt! Bush has said they are bailing them out. I am of course glad that I don't own any of their stock!
    2008 Aug 23 11:20 AM | Link | Reply
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    If by not going BK you means the bonds will not default then I agree. The US taxpayer will be made to eat the bad assets which are backed by bonds. If we don't do this then our creditors will deem us not credit worthy and stop lending us money on the debt we never intend to pay back. But we all want to continue to act like we will this time.

    If by BK you mean the common share holders will be completely wiped out (which is the only BK that investors (gamblers) care about) then you are wrong. Holders of the common will be wiped out. As if losing 95% isn't already that.
    2008 Aug 23 02:06 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    i guess most of these assoc. already lost the shirt off their back.
    2008 Aug 23 03:34 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The only shirt missing are the ones from e-bay itself.
    2008 Aug 24 07:11 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    This is a funny article as an ebay powerseller this never occured to me
    2008 Aug 25 09:13 AM | Link | Reply