Seeking Alpha

Mark McQueen


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You can’t always believe what you read. Take the August 21 “launch” of the new Research in Motion (RIMM) BlackBerry Bold via Rogers (RCI).

On August 12, we were the first to let you know that Rogers would be launching the BlackBerry Bold in a couple of weeks (see prior post “RIM Bold launching at Rogers very soon” August 12-08). You might have read in the DTM that Rogers beat that notional target date, with an “official launch” earlier this week. The only problem was, unless you have some product to sell, I don’t think marketing types should get the DTM to run a headline that says “Rogers unveils the Bold.“

Try finding a Bold on Friday.

If you went down to the Rogers corporate store at 330 Bay Street, there’s a sign that says “No Bolds.” Travel south on Bay and the salesman at Wireless Wave will tell you that the first shipment was to arrive on Thursday. And then Friday at noon. But, other than a demo, they still don’t have them.

Some launch.

In Western Canada, United Parcel Service (UPS) is blamed by some retailers for “the screwup.” The demo Bolds haven’t even arrived yet out there, let alone the real things. One journalist observed that it wasn’t anywhere near as exciting as the iPhone launch. The truth is, BlackBerry customers aren’t lining up to buy them ’cause they aren’t in stock yet.

It looks like our August 12 scoop that the Bold will be “available in a couple” of weeks will pan out to be accurate in the end. Can you imagine Apple launching the iPod without product in stock? What a PR disaster that would’ve been.

But, on to more serious business. It is never fun to talk down your own book, but I just tried a demo Bold and it didn’t knock my socks off.

The form factor feels very solid, much more so than the 8700. The screen is a bit shorter than one might expect, but the keyboard feels like bubblewrap when you tap a key. Not quite the squishy 8800 keys, but not really any better, either.

The fellow next to me and I agreed that it just didn’t feel right. Maybe it was this particular demo, and a real “suitable for ownership” model would feel more sure-footed. But I doubt it.

To get tens of thousands of white collar workers in Toronto, Boston, New York, Chicago, Los Angeles and elsewhere to prematurely upgrade for several hundred dollars down, plus a three-year plan extension, will likely take more than this hardware offering, I’m sad to say. It looks good, but doesn’t drive quite as well. At least based upon a quick “drive by.”

It's time to exit my RIM margin position (but keep the untouchable RRSP one). I don’t want to be around a couple of weeks from now when the U.S. hedge fund mo’ crowd get their hands on it. If they conclude that the Bold isn’t the second coming, you’d expect some pressure on the stock.

If I’m wrong, you can always buy it back higher. For at least the past decade, investors eventually made money regardless of when they bought RIM. However, as product launches go, this one won’t put a smile on anyone’s face.

Disclosure: I own RIM and RCI.

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This article has 3 comments:

  •  
    At least Rim decided to hold back on the release to correct the issues as opposed to the 3g iphone which is now in a class action lawsuit over the the issues with its reception and connection speeds.
    2008 Aug 25 02:39 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Maybe their market intelligence told them there is no one left to buy a bold because they already bought the iphone.
    I also toyed with a demo unit and I wouldn't want one!
    2008 Aug 25 10:22 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    An Apple a day keeps the doctor at bay, buy an iPhone.
    2008 Aug 25 03:44 PM | Link | Reply
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