Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

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That’s enough for a slow day. The end of August looms and volume grows light with Labor Day weekend ahead. Traders have one more shot at a long summer weekend and many are already gone. They’ve left a few low-ranking sentries on duty to protect their positions. You could readily see how easy it was to push indexes one way or another without too much effort given the volume.

Gustav looms as a potentially serious problem.

Have a pleasant day.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains long or short positions in IWM, UWM, QQQQ, QLD, XLY, XLV, RXL, XLP, UGE, IEF, TLT, UUP, FXE, DRR, GLD, DZZ, DBC, DEE, USO, UNG, EFA, EFU, EEM, EFU and FXI.

Comments

[user 251867:]

Fry says he wouldn't touch bonds with a ten foot pole when it was lower, now he is long them, higher... I don't get it.

2008 Aug 27 10:35 AM

[parnelli96:]

I believe he's following a system. As he frequently states in his sacred cows, "Things change..."

2008 Aug 27 10:40 AM

[sacking:]

Thanks for adding ILF to your charts. Trading ranges reflect the uncertainty in the markets and light volume of summer. I wonder if the uncertainty of the upcoming elections are adding to the lack of direction reflected in the markets. How do the current charts compare to those of the summer of 2000 or 2004? Will markets wait until after the election to choose a direction?
I have to think UNG is a buy at these levels. Drop in August 07 to same levels were followed by 20% rise by end of November.

2008 Aug 27 11:36 AM

[David Fry:]

" 'I' wouldn't touch it with a 10 ft pole." That's correct, but our job is to subscribers period. It's all about the system and not my personal opinions in that regard.

2008 Aug 27 12:39 PM

[OldLimey:]

....and more generally, "when the facts change I change my opinion - what do you do?" (I forget who originally said that; might have been Keynes.)

2008 Aug 27 02:34 PM

[user 251867:]

Subscribers must have lost money going short tlt if they pulled the short trigger based on Fry's personal opinion on bonds a few weeks back.

2008 Aug 27 03:18 PM

[Hedgehunter:]

I agree that we've seen BRICs fall out of favor and I visited Russia in 06 while studying the emerging economies of Eastern Europe. I wouldn't take a long position in Russia alone for at lease another 10 years, but what about EFA - has it seen the majority of its decline? I know your position is short, how far down are you predicting it will go?

2008 Aug 27 08:17 PM