21 Stocks For Bulls, Based On PMI And NMI

by: Ronald Rutherford

Although the initial market reaction to the ISM reports was muted, both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing reports from the Institute for Supply Management showed considerable strength. The headline indexes both exceeded the consensus numbers and even the high range of the consensus ranges. The PMI made the most dramatic move by increasing 1.9, jumping the 50% mark at a 51.5%, which was 1.8% over the consensus and 0.9% over the high range of the consensus range. The NMI also increased an acceptable 1.4 to 55.1% after an increase of 1.1% last month. This made this month the 33rd consecutive month the index was above the 50% mark, indicating continued growth.

Even with this broadly positive news, there were a few points of concern. With the manufacturing sectors, sub-indexes broadly increased, including employment up by 3.1 to 54.7%, the only ongoing concern is input prices. The price index jumped 4 points to 58% and the rate for commodities going up in price was 11, including 5 that were multiple months up in price. Input prices for the non-manufacturing sectors are of greater concern as the price index jumped 3.8 to 64.3%. That was a continuation of a meteoric rise since June 2012 at a below 50 reading of 48.9%. Even more dramatic was the lop-sided aspect of respondents stating prices are rising, with those stating prices are declining at 28% and 1%, respectively. Sixteen out of the 18 industries reported increases in prices and none responded with decreases in input prices.

The other sub-indexes of the non-manufacturing sectors were that new export dropped 1.5 to 50.5% and employment slid 2.7 to 51.1%. As the chart below shows, the employment index has been struggling to maintain consistent growth above the 50% mark.

Bull Stock Picks based on Changes in PMI and NMI

This month's regression analysis used the headline indexes of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. Unlike using the underlying indexes of the non-manufacturing sectors, this used just the headline numbers for both indexes for the independent variables. The group of stocks that performed best based on positive correlations with the indexes we call "Lovers". These Lovers returned annually over 13 1/2 and nearly 5% over the S&P 500 flat weighted index for the backtest since July 2000.

A reader asked last month if I could provide more information as to the relative strengths of each of the picks based on the regressions. This information allows users to determine relative strengths between choices with under- and over-weighting them. In the complete portfolio, they determine the percentage holdings of each stock position. Below are the results filtered by Sabrient System's latest ratings and the R squared values.

Strong Buy Rated Bulls with R^2:

  • Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. (NYSE:ATI) 0.342723886935677

  • Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) 0.563922630861981

  • CareFusion Corporation (NYSE:CFN) 0.439254597463529

  • Genworth Financial, Inc. (NYSE:GNW) 0.492024282251121

  • JetBlue Airways Corporation (NASDAQ:JBLU) 0.288999169632203

  • M/I Homes, Inc. (NYSE:MHO) 0.49323201308436

Buy Rated Bulls with R^2:

  • Deluxe Corporation (NYSE:DLX) 0.453322342612923

  • Drew Industries Incorporated (DW) 0.446593905125887

  • Hanmi Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:HAFC) 0.410652656257976

  • The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (NYSE:HIG) 0.574410230386377

  • Heartland Payment Systems, Inc. (NYSE:HPY) 0.459851536012491

  • Principal Financial Group, Inc. (NYSE:PFG) 0.612435113803754

  • Rock-Tenn Company (RKT) 0.30618498772903

  • Select Comfort Corporation (NASDAQ:SCSS) 0.50300726356263

  • Symmetry Medical Inc. (NYSE:SMA) 0.428553507840111

  • Trinity Industries, Inc. (NYSE:TRN) 0.570672262226576

  • Aetna Inc. (NYSE:AET) 0.307262651650119

  • Coventry Health Care, Inc.(CVH) 0.301769455343444

  • Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. (NYSE:HLX) 0.463508539630128

  • Portfolio Recovery Associates, Inc. (NASDAQ:PRAA) 0.444450507213411

  • Smithfield Foods, Inc. (NYSE:SFD) 0.367985195652635

Long Rankings

The Sabrient Long Rankings stocks that are poised to outperform the market based on our backtested strategies. Stocks are segmented into categories which include value stocks, high-growth stocks, GARP stocks, and others. Many Sabrient products are derived from the Long Rankings.

Disclosure: I am long DLX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: I am long DLX. I am long as part of the Rock Solid Yields | Sabrient Systems.

About this article:

Author payment: $35 + $0.01/page view. Authors of PRO articles receive a minimum guaranteed payment of $150-500. Become a contributor »
Problem with this article? Please tell us. Disagree with this article? .