A Flurry Of Mixed Housing Stats [Housing Tracker]

House Sales/Price Data 

Home-Building Slump Continues In Connecticut. “Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development: New-home construction this year is on a pace to be slower than 2007, continuing a slide that began in 2005. For the first seven months of this year, towns and cities in the state issued 3,096 permits for single-family houses, condominiums and apartment units, down 25% from 4,155 for the same period a year ago… Warren Group: The median sales price of a single-family house in Connecticut fell nearly 8% through the first five months of 2008 compared with the same period a year ago.” (Hartford Courant, Aug. 28)

American Home Building Low Could Have Silver Lining. “Census Bureau: Housing starts plunged 11% to an annual rate of 965,000 from a revised 1.084 million pace in June. This was the lowest level for 17 years. Permits… tumbled 17% to an annual rate of 937,000 from a revised 1.138 million in June… The continued drop in building could help property market back on the road to recovery. Since demand for homes remains weak, the glut of unsold homes will only ease if fewer new homes are built… In June, builders faced a median wait of 8.4 months to sell a completed home, the longest delay in selling time in 25 years.” (The Move Channel, Aug. 27)

 Sharp Revision to New Home Sales Leads to July Gain. “Commerce Department: Sales of newly built single-family homes rose 2.4% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 515,000 units in July. Sales for June were revised sharply downward to 503,000, from an originally-reported 530,000 last month. The July 2008 total reported today is 35% below the pace recorded one year ago… Inventory of new homes for sale declined for a fifteenth consecutive month in July to 416,000 units, the lowest number since April of 2007 — the 5.6% drop in inventory compared to last month, is the largest monthly drop in at least 40 years. The inventory reduction represented 10.1 months’ supply at the current sales pace, down from 10.7 months in June.” (Housing Wire, Aug. 26) 

Home Prices Fall A Record 15.9% Year Over Year. “S&P: The Case-Shiller index of 20 major metropolitan areas for the month dropped 15.9% from June 2007. The S&P/Case-Shiller index, which tracks multiple sales of the same homes, is considered by many observers to be the best gauge of national and metro-level real-estate values. While only slightly worse than the 15.8% decrease seen in the previous month, June's drop represents a new record decline. Prices tracked in a separate index of 10 cities fell a record 17.0% in the past year.” (MarketWatch, Aug. 26) 

Home Prices Off 1.4% In Second Quarter, OFHEO Says. “Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight: U.S. home prices fell a seasonally adjusted 1.4% Q2. This was less than the 1.7% drop seen during Q1. Prices were down a record 4.8% between Q2’07 and Q2’08… The OFHEO index is based on repeat sales of homes mortgaged through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac… Weak markets in California, Nevada and Florida were dragging the index lower. By region, the western states had the biggest decline in home prices during Q2, according to the OFHEO, the agency charged with oversight of Fannie and Freddie. Other regions of the country were not experiencing similar sharp declines in prices.” (MarketWatch, Aug. 26)

Reports: Home Prices Down, But Decline Slowing. “Case-Shiller indez: Metro Atlanta showed slight improvement in its resale prices for Q2, rising 0.6% over Q1. And Q1 was 0.5% better than Q4’07. But over a year’s time, Atlanta’s resale prices are off 8.1%. That ranks Atlanta as the eighth best on a list of 20 metro areas. In the OFHEO’s home-price rankings, based on purchases and refinancings, Atlanta showed a slight decline of 0.70%. That dropped Atlanta from 153 to 159 on a list of 292 metro areas… HousingTracker.net says Atlanta’s median price, including attached housing, is $215,496, which is essentially flat over a year’s time.” (Atlanta Journal Constitution, Aug. 26)

Housing Market Still In Basement. “Cheri Meyn, owner of the Genesis Group, a Centennial consulting firm that analyzes housing data: Metropolitan Denver's housing market continues to sag and isn't likely to rebound until next year at the earliest. The number of new homes on the market in H1’08 was roughly the same as last year, indicating that builders aren't confident enough to believe a comeback is imminent… New- home sales for metro Denver were down by 47% in H1’08 compared with H1’07. Resales for the same time frame were down 7.5%. Better than 83% of all foreclosures are from home purchases below $200,000, and 90% are from purchases below $300,000.” (Denver Post, Aug. 26) 

Home Sales Up, But Numbers Misleading. “Home sales rose because speculators are buying foreclosed homes at fire sale prices... July home sales rose 3% to an annual pace of 5 million homes sold, but economists say as many as a third of those are foreclosure sales or short sales, which refers to cut-rate sales to pay back a note fast. Despite all that, there are so many unsold homes, at current sales pace it would take 11 months to run through them all. Hawaii has had few foreclosures, but even here there are more than before.” (KGMB, Aug. 25) 

Where Home Prices Are Likely To Rise. “Albuquerque, N.M. has experienced housing price declines since a peak in Q3’07… Nevertheless, homebuilders and economists are bullish about Albuquerque for 2010 and beyond… NAHB: Housing starts in the city are expected to reverse course in 2009, growing by 26.6%. This means builders have high hopes for 2010 and 2011, when those homes will be completed and on the market… Housing starts in Las Vegas are expected to drop by 32% in 2008 and actually get worse in 2009, falling by a further 43%. In overbuilt, highly leveraged Phoenix, starts are predicted to fall 50% this year and descend another 11% more in 2009… Homebuilders aren't expecting profits in the Vegas or Phoenix market until past 2011.” (Forbes, Aug. 25)

 

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Comments

[billddrummer]

Hi Judy,

Great research, thanks for your efforts!

Ran across a report from the Wachovia Economics Group regarding housing statistics and their take on the current situation. It's available through wachovia.economics@wac...

Their opinion is that although the bottom is in sight, a recovery depends on mortgage availability and affordability, which are primary to getting the industry off its back. (Funny, that's the same thing I've been saying too. And I'm not a formally trained economist [nor do I sport the income of one, but that's another story altogether].) The group sees some encouragement in the most recent statistics, but also cautions that meaningful recovery may take years. From now. Which would put it out until 2010 or 2011 in the worst-hit markets (FL, CA, NV, AZ).

[ksmithdc]

Connecticut is also tax central. Things will level out eventually.