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Flextronics (NASDAQ:FLEX) is due to report its fiscal Q2 results after the close tonight, and analysts polled by Capital IQ are expecting the company to report a profit of $0.23 per share on revenue of $6.098 billion.

FLEX shows a longer-term reversal trend between the sessions, particularly on downside moves, a datapoint that suggests shorts should be wary of going all in on a drop tonight and longs are still in the game on any downside move.

FLEX has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours decline in 21 quarters tracked in our database. In 17 of those events, or 81% of the time, the stock saw its downside narrow or reverse direction in the following day's regular session.

On the plus-side, FLEX has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours gain in 10 quarters, widening those advances in the following day's regular session in six of those events.

  • On July 25, 2012, FLEX slipped 0.1% in night trade after beating earnings estimates but also guiding lower. The stock moved out of the red the next day, closing the July 26 regular session up 1.6%.
  • On May 1, 2012, FLEX declined 3.8% in after-hours trade after beating Q4 earnings estimates and setting its Q1 guidance below the Street view. The stock reversed direction the next day, ending the May 2 regular session up 4.9%.
  • On Jan. 19, 2012, FLEX dropped 3.2% in after-hours trade after missing Q3 expectations and setting mixed Q4 guidance. The stock reversed direction the next day, closing the Jan. 20 regular session at the flatline.
  • On Oct. 20, 2011, the stock fell 1.6% in after-hours trading after a guidance miss and in-line earnings. Shares bounced back with an 8% gain the next day.
  • On July 21, 2011, the stock gained 0.1% in after-hours trading following mixed earnings and guidance below the Street view. Shares jumped 9.3% the next day.
  • On April 27, 2011, FLEX dropped 7.6% in night trade after coming in shy of Q4 expectations, setting a stock buyback, and guiding in-line to below Street estimates. It narrowed its negative move the following day, closing the April 28 regular session down 6%.
  • On Jan. 20, 2011, FLEX slipped 0.5% in evening trade after beating Q3 earnings estimates by a penny and setting mixed guidance. The stock added to its downside the following day, closing the Jan. 21 regular session off 2.6%.
  • On Oct. 27, 2010, the stock jumped 10.4% in evening trading after the company beat with earnings and guidance. Shares improved to post an 11% gain the next day.
  • On July 22, 2010, FLEX declined 2.9% in evening trade after beating Q1 estimates and setting in-line guidance for Q2. The stock headed deeper in the red the next day, closing the July 23 regular session down 4.7%.
  • On April 27, 2010, the stock fell 2.5% after mixed Q4 results and in-line guidance. Shares fell a slimmer 0.4% the next day.
  • On Jan. 27, 2010, FLEX declined 5.6% in evening trade despite reporting mostly better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock slumped further south the following day, closing the Jan. 28 regular session down 7%.
  • On Oct. 26, 2009, FLEX firmed 3.3% in after-hours action after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. It lost its gain the following day, ending the Oct. 27 regular session down 5.3%.
  • On July 29, 2009, FLEX declined 4% in evening trade after beating Q1 expectations and guiding in line for Q2. The stock cut its downside the following day, ending down 2.1%.
  • On April 29, 2009, the stock edged up 0.2% after a Q4 miss and mixed Q1 guidance. Shares reversed to close down a narrow 0.2% the next day.
  • On Jan. 28, 2009, the stock fell 11% after a Q3 miss and guidance below the Street. The loss was trimmed sharply and the stock closed down 1.8% the next day.
  • On Oct. 23, 2008, FLEX was flat in after-hours trade after reporting in-line earnings, better-than-expected sales, and guidance below expectations. The stock advanced in the following day's regular session, closing with a 2.4% rise.
  • On July 24, 2008, FLEX ended the after-hours flat after missing earnings expectations. The stock turned south the next day, losing 2.2% in the July 25 regular session.
  • On April 29, 2008, FLEX advanced 3.2% in night trade after beating earnings expectations by three cents. The bulk of that gain evaporated in next-day trade as FLEX closed the April 30 regular session with a 0.2% rise.
  • On Jan. 29, 2008, FLEX gained 3.3% during evening trading after the company beat with Q3 results, guides in line for Q4. The stock gained 12.6% the next day.
  • On Oct. 23, 2007, FLEX fell 1.4% during evening trading despite a Q2 beat for the company. The loss was a slimmer 0.1%.
  • On July 26, 2007, FLEX dipped 0.7% in after hours when the company topped Q1 estimates but forecast Q2 sales to fall below expectations. However, shares regained some ground the next day and ended the regular session a firmer 0.09%.
  • On April 26, 2007, FLEX added 2.1% in evening action on the heels of better-than-expected earnings and in-line to lower guidance. The stock headed further north in the next day's regular session, rising 3.2%.
  • On Jan. 30, 2007, FLEX gained 3.5% in night trade after beating Q3 EPS estimates by a penny. However, shares could not hold onto all those gains the next day and ended the regular session up 2%.
  • On Oct. 24, 2006, FLEX shed 3.3% in the after-hours session following a sales miss but EPS in line with the Street view. The loss was pared to 2.9% the next day.
  • On July 25, 2006, shares firmed 3.3% in night trading after FLEX reported ahead with Q1 results and guided above the Street. The gain expanded to 6.5% the next day.
  • On April 27, 2006, FLEX fell 2.9% in evening trading after the company reported just shy on revenues but ahead with EPS. The loss was trimmed to 0.9% the next day.
  • On Jan. 31, 2006, shares fell 3% in the after hours session after the company guided in line with the Street view. The stock rebounded to gain 2.8% the next day.
  • On October 25, 2005, FLEX slid 13.3% in evening trade after missing Q2 estimates and guiding Q3 below Street views. The shares tumbled further the next day, ending the regular session down 23.9%.
  • On July 26, 2005, FLEX lost 2.1% after hours despite topping Q1 EPS forecasts by a penny. It narrowed its loss in the July 27 regular session, slipping 1.3%.
  • On April 28, 2005 FLEX slid 2.4% in after-hours trade after the company missed on sales and guided revenue below the Street view. The stock recorded an about-face on April 29 and ended the bell-to-bell session with a 4.8% rise.
  • FLEX gained 5.5% the night of Jan. 25, 2005 after the company beat Q3 expectations and reaffirmed its forward outlook. Buyers flocked to the issue in next-day trade, goosing it 12.2% by the Jan. 26 regular session close.
  • FLEX slid 7.8% the night of Oct. 25, 2004 after the company missed Q2 sales expectations and set its Q3 outlook below the Street view. It ended the Oct. 26 regular session down 6.9%.
  • FLEX tumbled 7.9% in the July 19, 2004 after-hours after missing sales expectations. The stock cut its declines by the following day's close, ending bell-to-bell play down 3.3%.
  • Prior to July 2004, FLEX had followed its night session close with a wider next-day regular session closing level in its previous three earnings-related events in 2004 and late 2003.
Source: Flextronics Makes The Case For Longs Playing Earnings-Driven After-Hours Moves