Declines from Peaks in Housing Show Big Disparity

Below we highlight the percentage difference between current median home prices and the max median home prices seen in each of the twenty cities that S&P/Case-Shiller tracks.  As shown, there is quite a big difference between the worst areas and the ones that have held up the best.  Phoenix, Las Vegas, Miami and San Diego have all seen a median home price decline of more than 30% from their peaks.  Los Angeles, Detroit, San Francisco and Tampa are in the second tier of declines between -25% and -30%. 

On the flip side, Charlotte, Dallas, Denver, Portland, Seattle and Atlanta are all down less than 10% from their peaks, while New York, Chicago and Boston are just over -10%.  While the composite indices are down about 20%, there is a pretty big discrepancy in price declines depending on what area of the country you look at.

click to enlarge

Comments

[Francorp:]

I live in the city of Chicago, I have found it interesting that overall the prices of condos downtown do not seem to be overly affected by the downturn, if in fact the market has lost 10% of it's value I haven't noticed it.

2008 Aug 29 09:11 AM

[cocomurph:]

I'm shocked...SHOCKED!!...... all real estate is local.

Thanks for illustrating this well hidden fact.

More "brilliant" from Bespoke analysis....

2008 Aug 29 09:34 AM

[TKTK53:]

Tth real estate market is on the re-bond
Just hold tight
Stocks and real estate go hand in hand, and the stock market is moving up
TKTK53

2008 Aug 29 09:47 AM

[San Diego L...:]

Good post & great chart. For San Diego 30% seems a low estimate. I just read an article on how changes in jumbo financing may push the San Diego housing market down further. The article is titled Jumbo Financing and the Impact on The San Diego Real Estate Market and can be found at: www.brokerforyou.com/b.../

2008 Aug 30 09:19 AM

[GSlusher:]

Yet another story with nothing to say. Certainly, real estate prices and trends vary greatly from one place to another. That was true 6 months ago, a year ago, 5 years ago, 20 years ago, and certainly 100 years ago. The author writes as if he has found some startling hidden truth. The very fact that the "composite" number IS a composite should say that it doesn't represent the reality in any particular place.

Guess what? I found another hidden but fascinating truth! The average percentage of wins by MLB teams is UNCHANGED from last year, despite the economy. Obviously, MLB teams are UNAFFECTED by the economy. In difficult economic times, it would thus make sense to invest in MLB.

What's wrong with that? The author probably wouldn't understand. (Hint: just what IS the "average percentage of wins" for a MLB team?)

2008 Aug 30 07:16 PM

[jimbomo:]

Nearly every article on housing misses the point. Houses are not worth more that 2.5 to 3 times household income. They are primarily shelter for their owners - not retirement investments or inflation hedges. It doesn't make any difference how far prices go down until we reach this 2.5 - 3 x figure.

I lived in San Diego during 2007 and noticed that houses in the neighborhood where I rented were selling for around $600K. I can guarantee that very few if any of those households had incomes of $200K + per year.

2008 Aug 31 01:26 AM

[mangolfer:]

Perhaps waiting for the bottom to buy is now. Being in the industry, I believe the re-bound is creeping up now...

2008 Sep 02 08:31 AM