Leave Sirius Alone! 43 comments
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There is talk that the FCC may still mandate Sirius XM (SIRI) receivers be HD capable. They just can't leave well enough alone can they? Of course, the notice of inquiry comes from Clear Channel and iBiquity itself which is producing the HD system. Shocking I know.
The satellite industry has spent billions developing and producing receivers to liberate the masses from the stranglehold of terrestrial radio. Clear channel is trying to go back to bullying 'ol reliable and spineless FCC into letting them leach HD technology onto satellite receivers without having to spend the money to compete hardware for hardware. 
I say sure, let them do it. But pay the owners of satellite technology and the manufacturers of the receivers for the right to do it. Otherwise, use your own money to develop the separate HD receiver and do it the hard way like Sirius did. Then Sirius can lobby against Clear Channel to make HD receivers Satellite capable. Fair is fair right? No of course not my friends. Not when it comes to the self serving and manipulative behavior of politicians and lobbyists.
Clear Channel, the NAB, and the FCC have thoroughly embarrassed themselves over the 18 month delayed merger of Siri XM and have ultimately become a villain in the eyes of the public. So I have this to say to the NAB and Clear Channel. It is over. Get a life. Do you really want to get ahead? Concentrate on your business model and the well being of the stock holders. YOU NEED CONTENT. HD is not your savior. Content is. Content Content. Why do you think Sirius is signing content like crazy? It's not because the sound quality is all that great, it's because they know people will tune in to CNBC and Baseball. Stop being so thick headed about such a remedial concept.
I am literally surprised that Clear Channel didn't find some reason to lobby against Apple for daring to produce the IPod. I know it is a ridiculous thought isn't it? But then again, this whole political puppet show is ridiculous.
No wonder people don't bother to vote. I am truly sick to my stomach.
Disclosure: Long SIRI
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This article has 43 comments:
I look forward to better service and outstanding listening entertainment from the new ..... SiriusXM ...
Old Ga. Dawg 29.Aug.08 @ 11:10 AM ET
For Sirius it's all about the Benjamins. The stock will only rise significantly on better financials.
BullishBroke, until programming is consolidated and broadcasting is maintained by one satellite system, the risk of satellite or broadcasting uplink ground stations have not yet been removed. Please don't try to mislead folks with false assumptions to pump the stock. The new merged company can stand on its own merit and operating performance without all the hype. You must be new here because most who post know better. Stan is right, show us some solid guidance moving forward with free cash flow to profitability and we'll all celebrate the company's success.
$2.74mil is not a lot of money for Mel - it's nothing as a matter of fact - not like he's "risking" anything - how much lower could it get right now? ('eventually', that's a diff story)... Neither is 8mil shares for GS - that was just a rebalancing of their portfolio - they were 'underweight sat radio' - go figure... You guys hang on to these purchases like they mean something...
Equally amusing is are the Cramer rants... "conspiracy"... lol. The buying power of all Cramer-watchers put together is a drop in the bucket. Means NOTHING overall or in longterm - it's petty cash. Amusing though.
SIRIUS has three satellites in high-angle elliptical orbits over the U.S. These orbits ensure the highest angle of elevation and a more direct signal from their satellites to subscribers, no matter where they are in the continental U.S. With a fourth satellite amost ready. XM has two satellites. So Sirius can broadcast even if it loses a satellite! Without the merger. Hence the risk is not as it was three years ago and only going to get better. So please know what it is your speaking of before you bash some's coment. Look it up...It's public information.
If in fact XM loses a Satellite, current subscribers to that service will experience a dramatic loss of signal, of which Sirius' satellites would be of no use in solving the problem. I understand the orbits, geosynchronous and all that. "Orbit" is misleading because they orbit over the same coverage area as the earth spins. Its a matter of whether or not their technology is compatible and "IT IS NOT" currently. Inter-operable radios will help with this but, until the network of compatible satellite technology is in orbit, failure of a satellite will disrupt service for either subscription company, period.
Further, Sirius having more operable satellites in orbit currently, allowed them to shut down ground based repeaters (FCC violation) in 2006, while XM with their limited satellite configuration had to an still do have their ground based repeaters operating. Hence $2 mil for Sirius in fines vs $19 mil for XM by the FCC (or should I say voluntary contributions to the US Treasury)
So I was being kind when I said don't hype. I may not have it exactly right but I am more than willing to debate you on the current technologies. I'm not Bashing you, I'm simply inviting you to an intelligent discussion of what is real and what isn't.
Risk is an assessment of worst case scenarios. Satellites in orbit today are more at risk of failure due to age, obsolescence, and percentages. The only way it will get better is to replace them, which in itself is a high expense and risky business. Launches, technology failure and all that. Having said that, I am very long this stock and company and believe in their abilities to overcome these very real "Risks".
I think next week will not be important unless Mel gives some guidance. So far no announcement of a conference call. Just a lot of chatter waiting for some news.
So GS is bullilsh on Sirius XM, the company, not the industry. No one is forcing their portfolio to hold satellite radio "industry" stock. Its not a sector of the economy. You can sugar coat a 4 million share purchase. At least 6 million for Lehman Bros, and existing institutional holders never sold, just added after this plunge. But their stupid too, your the only smart one. I love all you trolls, who have nothing better to do than complain about how dumb you are to sell when you did, or buy on margin so you had too, and come on here to try to get us to join your sorrow parade. Hey man, dont worry about me, Im fine. If i want to come on a message board and learn information about my company, I have a reason to do that. I can determine what is good information and bad information for myself. I dont need you help on that. So go join a discussion on a stock you own, or did you go broke on the margin call? O well, you paid for the merger, thanks. And eveyone else out there. The merger was paid for by whoever bought this stock over 2-3 dollar range, and sold on the plunge to the smart and big money. Dont you get it yet? They took stock insured bonds basically. They want stock if the company is doing well for their DOUBLE DIGIT rate bonds. They get what is, 6, 10, geez 14 percent, but they all demanded a convertible bond for stock if they wanted it at nice buy ins, 1.87. Thank you. Enough said.
relmor, I know jswede is on the opposite side of my trade because I have debated with him before. I can say that he does understand this company's debt position and the hurdles facing it near term. I agree with you that companies purchasing stock in Sirius is a good sign for the future. If you visit, and you may already, mffais.com/siri.html, you will find current conditions show that Mutual Funds are selling slightly more of this stock at this time. Interestingly there were also more Mutual Funds closing out their positions in SIRI than initiating new ones. As with all information reported in the mffais format, it is best used when monitored over a period of time.
There. That feels better. Dave/Vic really was right. This really is a burden off my shoulders. I'm off to buy my index fund. It won't be as exciting, but I'll make more money.
As far as the company's debt, given the surprise handed to us to close the deal, it should concern everyone investing in the short term looking for SP pops. I don't think that day is coming. The debt will be worked out, but debt is debt. As we talked about before with all the shares outstanding, 3 Billion, the stock price will follow good performance. Revenues need to increase considerably while the merger synergies are realized. I don't see any reason why debt refinancing cannot be achieved after two good quarters of synergies and revenue growth. The question will be at what cost and will the refinancing be dilutive to the common shares. For that we need some guidance from Mel. Either way the revenues and positive cash flow will take over the stock price.