2 Sirius Aspects That Need to Play Out 29 comments
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We have all heard Mel Karmazin state that more detail regarding Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) would be available after Labor Day. This left the window open for speculation, rumor, and simply stated, another period of time where Sirius XM radio stock could blow with whatever winds the market-makers, a television host, or even an analyst wanted. Even hot tips, whether accurate or not, are difficult to prove one way or the other, leaving more frustration.
Sirius XM Radio is stuck. For sector followers this is nothing new. However, knowing it is stuck, and knowing that it is being traded in a range does not ease the frustration. For the past week the stock has bounced around a bit, but accomplished nothing. Longs and shorts are not seeing any real traction. The stock is stuck. How long it will remain in a channel is not yet known, but the next major activity is.
Labor Day is this Monday, and it is then that the company will begin to roll out more detail. This will be something that is hopefully more concrete. Something people can sink their teeth into, and something that will give the street a sense of direction with this equity.
There are two aspects that need to play out in the coming weeks:
- What consumers should expect with the merger. This aspect is important, because there is still a lot of confusion out there with reference to legacy receivers, oem receivers, Best Of programming, A-La-Carte receivers, and even how branding will happen. Sirius XM Radio needs to put all confusion to rest. Not all of it has to be in a Press Release, it just needs to be available. People with lifetime subscriptions wonder what happens now. People with one base service or the other also have questions. Retailers do not know the answer, so people need to have a place to get that information.
- What investors can expect. How will churn be counted, how subscribers will be counted, what is the status of coverts, debt, and satellites. What synergies are expected to deliver and in what time frame. Investors need to see the final goal, and some milestones on the way to that goal, but perhaps what is more important is getting everyone on the same page as to how to look at this equity.
Until there are some answers to questions such as this, this equity will be stuck. Jim Cramer speaks of additional converts being needed prior to February of 2009. The last thing this equity needs is yet another overhang. The fact of the matter is that there are many financing options available to Sirius XM Radio. Converts is not the only answer, but the street is not aware of that. Jim Cramer is pounding a drum, and until concrete answers are available, that drum beat is hard for people to ignore.
While it is difficult to digest, patience is the key word no matter what your current position. Patience is needed until there is a concrete and demonstrable change. Once that happens, this equity can react on something other than television, market makers and speculation.
Position - Long SIRI
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This article has 29 comments:
1. You think its going much lower.(At these levels you would have to be insane.
2. You hedging a bet, where you lose if and only if Sirius goes out of business(I doubt anyoen believes that who holds the bonds, as they are convertibles, meaning they would take shares). This is a one time transaction, entered at lets say 1.50, 1.60, or even 1.28 if they got lucky. There, they have their hedge.
So anwer me this? Why is this stock CONSTANTLY being shorted and repurchased and shorted again, and when it dips HIGHER volume of shares are gobbled up. Ive been watching Level 2 streaming on this stock for months, and that is exactly what is happening. There are up to 2 million shares being offered as a short every up tick. I assume this is a short, because I refuse to believe 2 million shares are offered every tick, instantly to SELL and never see again from investors thinking this stock is going lower. If you havent sold by now, YOU ARENT GOING TOO. Day traders would hate this stock, as it could explode any moment, and has limited downside potential, and huge upside potential. As a "shorter" I wouldnt even look at a stock like this. Especially with its trading range, erratic jumps and dips, and confusing fundamentals. Big money might be reshorting it and buying back, to accumulate shares. ONLY explanation for this action. I dont give a rats behind about the arbs shorts, the lent shorts, etc... all that would be played out by now. SOMEONE is buying and shorting, buying and shorting for a reason to accumulate shares cheap, and to drive as many shareholders out of their stock as they can. Who is doing this? I have no clue. But WHOEVER is doing it knows exactly what is going on with Sirius, and feels that right now their is nothing the average investor can do to lift its price, which is true, because that coordinated an effort would have to be sustained and constant to force covering of any REAL shorts, which would in fact jack the price up fast. But the constant shorters KNOW they dont need to worry about that. Talk about that, and stop doing justice to the BS from Cramer and the other yahoos who think this market isnt all a game of timing, insider information, and constant daily price manipulation.
So in this site
Market Cap = 1.99 b
on others ( Yahoo ) SIRI Market Cap is up to 4,8 B
What .........
There. That feels better. This really is a burden off my shoulders. I'm off to buy my index fund. It won't be as exciting, but I'll make more money.
I've sold my entire position in Sirius. It was just time. Been waiting too long.....risk reward profile just to poor to hang on. It feels better. Yes, I lost money, but the burden of hoping for the improbable is a weight off my shoulders. To all SIRI longs -- I encourage you to reconsider your investment. Between its money-losing track record and poor growth prospects, just sell now and find a more attractive investment.
Peace out.
Karmazin to Present at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Media Fall Preview Conference
NEW YORK, Sept 02, 2008 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX News Network/ -- SIRIUS
XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) today announced that Mel Karmazin, its Chief Executive
Officer, is expected to present at the 2008 Merrill Lynch Media Fall Preview
Conference in Marina del Rey, CA on Tuesday, September 9, 2008 at approximately
8:00 am PT.