China's Hepatitis B Market to Double by 2012

The market for hepatitis B drugs in China is expected to grow 135% by 2012, according to a new report from Decision Resources. From $340 million in 2007, sales of hepatitis B treatments will increase to $800 million over the five years, a CAGR of 18%.

Decision Resources puts the current count of people in China with chronic hepatitis B at 80 million, though other reports estimate the total is 50% higher – 120 million. That constitutes almost 10% of the population. Part of the reason behind the high dollar value of drugs for this population is that the nucleoside/nucleotide analogue class of drugs often used to treat the disease must be given long term, often for the rest of a patient’s life. In most cases, these drugs are effective, suppressing the viral count, but the disease reappears as soon as treatment is discontinued.

For China’s patients, the choice is often between a more-expensive Western drug and a domestic treatment that is perceived to be less effective. According to Dr. Victor Li, an analyst at Decision Resources, the increasing use of Western remedies is one of the factors driving the market higher. "The shift to use more expensive Western branded drugs, particularly newer agents such as Bristol-Myers Squibb's (BMY) Baraclude, Roche's (RHHBY.PK) Pegasys and Schering-Plough's (SGP) Pegintron, will contribute significantly to the expansion of the hepatitis B market in China," he said.

Among domestically produced drugs, Tianjin Institute of Pharmaceutical Research's Dai Ding (adefovir) has achieved the highest market share, topping even Hepsera from GlaxoSmithKline (GSK).

Disclosure: none.

Comments

[rlirph:]

It is reported in cities like Shanghai or Guangzhou the hepatitis B patients accounts for more than 10% of population. The potential for this market is huge.

However one must also consider the cost of these medications. In the US those pegylated interferons cost the pharmacy about US$900-$1200 per month. Even if the manufacturers are willing to take a mark down, may be to 25% of the US cost, it still represents a major expense for most Chinese households.

2008 Sep 01 09:29 AM

[huangthomas:]

Hepatitis B is a public health problem and should be prevented rather than treated. If China has national will to prevent this disease, it will disappear from China as in Taiwan and Hong Kong. It is a bad investment to bet on China will allow this disease to go on forever. In the short term, those already infected will need the drugs.

2008 Sep 01 12:20 PM

[rlirph:]

Hepatitis B can be minimized through childhood immunization, better sanitary conditions and use of condoms. While no government would like this disease to continue a more sensible question is if the government can afford it. It is like many cancer patients in China just die without chemotherapy. Even with chemotherapy it is always the inexpensive ones which usually are the ones with less desirable outcomes.

There are many many hepatitis patients in both Taiwan and Hong Kong for reasons mentioned above.

2008 Sep 01 11:38 PM