Do 'Experts' Really Know What Is Going On?

Regular visitors to this blog might think I am a cynic - and they would be right.

I'm sure many factors have helped to make me this way, including genetics and upbringing.

Yet I'm confident that my perspective has also been colored by the years I've spent listening to the nonsense coming out of the mouths of the so-called "smart money," who like to give the impression that only they know what is going on and that they are fully on top of things.

As events of the past year have demonstrated, that representation, to put it mildly, is a load of codswallop.

But I would be remiss if I failed to point out that there are a small number of individuals and groups who have lived up to their billing as "experts."

Among them is the Bank for International Settlements, which I have made reference to in earlier posts, including "Prescient, Again?" and "The Week's Big Story."

In "Money Market Strains to Continue 'for Some Time,' BIS Reports," Bloomberg's Gavin Finch details the latest call-it-as-they-see-it pronouncement from the central bankers' central bank.

Comments

[kkin365:]

Making predictions day in and day out is not easy. One is dulled by repetition. I sensed this myself, a novice amateur. Reading only comments by people far removed from daily action, such as BIS, is the only sensible action to take.

2008 Sep 01 09:54 AM

[rm:]

[the so-called "smart money," who like to give the impression that only they know what is going on and that they are fully on top of things.]

You would enjoy the book, "Mistakes Were Made... but not by me." The author mentions another book, "Expert Political Judgment," which shows that professional and economic forecasting "experts" aren't any more accurate than non-experts.

2008 Sep 01 11:09 AM

[investor88:]

Useful and thought provoking articles. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

2008 Sep 01 11:10 AM

[fran:]

i do enjoy/appreciate views which are varied from the normal hype. there is a need for balance, though other than constant "feel good" does not sell ads/commercial time.

i look forward to hearing from yourself, John Browne, Barry R., Schiff, et al. thanks

2008 Sep 01 01:27 PM

[notsosmart:]

dont believe anybody about anything anytime.all have an agenda.what & who is an expert?really no such thing.this whole mess was caused by the big brains of finance.some of whom must have made legacy fortunes & laughed all the way to the bank.how many said buy while they sold?how many said sell so as to cover their shorts? its no longer business,its vegas & as you lose nobody brings you a drink.think for yourself.should you believe me?

2008 Sep 01 03:10 PM

[sbenard:]

codswallop -- Brit, Austr., and NZ -- nonsense

For those of us who don't speak the king's English.

2008 Sep 01 07:19 PM

[Steven Hansen:]

i believe the situation can deteriorate significantly from today depending how many shoes fall and whether they are anticipated. i am planning for the worst but hoping for the best also. i will bet heavily that the situation will not be much better a year from today. so my view is things will not get better, will probably remain the same, but if it gets worse it will be really worse.

we can now hope that the economic medicine being dished out will cure the disease, or is it dogmatic bulls**t which will produce an economic death spiral.

2008 Sep 01 09:08 PM