A Look At Local Housing Data [Housing Tracker]

Quote of the Day

Builders Regroup As Market Searches For A Bottom. Arizona: "The Valley's new-home market is in transition, and we are probably only halfway through that transition," said real-estate analyst RL Brown, publisher of the Phoenix Housing Market Letter. "Now, homebuilders are re-evaluating where and for what price range they can sell homes." Brown estimates the median price of a new home will drop to about $195,000 when metro Phoenix's housing market is done correcting. That's back to 2003-04 prices.” (Arizona Republic, Aug. 31) 

Bargains On The Auction Block. “Michigan's rough economy and oversupply of homes has created the backdrop for a September auction of nearly 400 new homes and lots owned by 20 local builders and developers… The auction includes 27 single-family homes, 91 condominiums, executive golf course lots and 250 subdivision sites throughout metro Detroit… Property auctions have picked up in metro Detroit over the past year... Most of the auctions have been to move foreclosed property, but a number of auctions of high-profile, historic and luxury homes also have been in the mix. What is unique about this auction… is that the homes are generally not distressed properties.” (Detroit Free Press, Aug. 31) 

Four Families Win Discount On Homes. Maryland: “Housing officials have had a hard time finding enough qualified people to compete for the MIHU homes since prices began escalating in recent years. A down payment and closing costs can require $15,000 in cash or more, and a $200,000-plus-priced home can be tough for a family of four with an income lower than $75,408 to afford. Thomas P. Carbo, deputy county housing director: "We have over 650 people on our list in a year's time interested in buying homes… Many do not qualify for mortgages… But the county is moving to ease the qualification process by tweaking regulations.” (Baltimore Sun, Aug. 31) 

Industry Makes Way For 30 Homes. Chicago, Illinois: “An area in Bridgeport where two vacant industrial buildings stand will become a new neighborhood of 30 single-family houses. The Chicago Plan Commission this month approved a change in zoning for the L-shaped site to residential from light industrial. Lexington Homes will develop the single-family homes there through 969 Land LLC.” (Chicago Tribune, Aug. 31) 

Good, But Not Great. Grand Forks, North Dakota: “Comparing the first seven months of 2008’s building-permit data to the same period in 2007, the dollar value is about 10% less and the number of permits is almost 13% fewer… Construction figures [show] significant declines in both apartments and commercial building… [Yet] a recent Herald story [was] about the number of apartment buildings and motels that have just started construction or announced plans for building… suggesting continued growth in these categories. New construction of single-family homes also shows a [relatively slight] decline… The dollar value for town homes is actually up by [almost] 10%.” (Grand Forks Herald, Aug. 30) 

Tax Credit Will Provide Needed Boost For Area Homebuilders. “Middle Tennessee home prices are staying fairly stable, with median prices down just 5% over the past year. And… a shrinking inventory of new homes… However, builders have been scaling back drastically in terms of the number of permits they have been pulling. When one compares the number of Middle Tennessee area permits pulled in H1’06 to the number pulled in H1’08… the totals come out to 9,088 and 4,407 respectively, a drop of nearly 52% over the past two years.” (Nashville Business Journal, Aug. 29)

Bay State Home Prices in Record Decline. “Warren Group: Massachusetts' median home-sale price fell 12.3% in July - the steepest decline ever recorded… The median-priced Massachusetts house fetched $320,000 last month, down from $360,000 in July 2007. That's the worst decline in percentage terms in 21 years. Condos sales volume dropped 12.5% from July 2007 levels, while median prices declined 2.5% to $287,750… Boston broker Greg Burton: "We're experiencing declines in prices but, believe it or not, market activity in our area is actually up.” Massachusetts Association of Realtors: The number of unsold houses and condos on the market fell 8.9% last month to 49,145 units.” (Boston Herald via Big Builder Online, Aug. 27)

Therapists Helping Builders Cope During Housing Slump. “Atlanta, Georgia: Eugene James, the regional director of MetroStudy, which tracks the housing industry: Locally, the number of lots waiting for homes has increased 13% over July 2007. As of July 1, 149,000 lots in 22 metro Atlanta counties were awaiting framing crews. Measuring vacant available real estate is easier than gauging builder turbulence. Smaller companies simply fold. Larger ones may seek bankruptcy protection, but there is no data on builder bankruptcies.” (Atlanta Journal Constitution, Aug. 25)

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Comments

[billddrummer:]

Hi Judy,

Great compilation. It's a joy to read your column.

I think that most every market will bottom at the 2004 median. How long it will take to get there depends on how far above that median the market moved.

2008 Sep 02 11:15 AM

[billddrummer:]

Hi Judy,

I did some research on the Las Vegas market, and in mid-2003 the median home price was $177,100. By mid-2004, that number was up 52% to $269,000. And as they say in horse racing, "And, they're off!!"

A number of factors combined to push the median up so fast--a 1.7 months supply of new homes, 6,000-7,000 new in-migrants a month, and explosive employment growth with the second wave of mega-resorts (Treasure Island, Excalibur).

I wouldn't be surprised if the Vegas market falls to that level again.

2008 Sep 02 02:03 PM

[joof:]

2002-03 values adjusted for inflation (maybe up 3-4% year) - maybe the end game except in markets with bad employment performance

2008 Sep 02 07:43 PM