A few a days ago I read an interesting post titled “50 SPX Stocks Down > 50%” in “The Big Picture” site.That article inspired this post where I analyze the performance of 43 foreign banks since the October 2007 peak.
I followed these rules for this study:
a. Take the highest intra-day high reached in October 2007 as the peak.
b. If a stock reached higher price before or after October ignore it.
c. Include bank stocks listed in the OTC market as sponsored ADRs.
I selected October 2007 because after hitting highs both the US and foreign markets started going down due to the unfolding credit crunch.Just like some of the US bank stocks, some of the foreign banks listed in the chart below are down more than 50%.
Foreign Bank Stock Returns Chart:
Please click on the above thumbnail to enlarge chart.
Table:
| S.No. | Company | Ticker | Country | Change (%) since Oct-07 Peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barclays Bank | BCS | UK | -53.09% |
| 2 | HSBC Bank | HBC | UK | -20.91% |
| 3 | Royal Bank of Scotland | RBS | UK | -62.00% |
| 4 | Llyods Group plc | LYG | UK | -53.03% |
| 5 | HBOS plc | HBOOY | UK | -71.76% |
| 6 | Bank of Ireland | IRE | Ireland | -59.09% |
| 7 | Allied Irish Banks | AIB | Ireland | -51.60% |
| 8 | Deutsche Bank | DB | Germany | -37.59% |
| 9 | Commerzbank | CRZBY | Germany | -35.11% |
| 10 | UBS | UBS | Switzerland | -62.27% |
| 11 | Credit Suisse Group | CS | Switzerland | -33.63% |
| 12 | Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria | BBV | Spain | -33.32% |
| 13 | Santander Central Hispano | STD | Spain | -21.93% |
| 14 | The Netherlands | ING | Spain | -31.94% |
| 15 | Kookmin Bank | KB | South Korea | -41.56% |
| 16 | Shinhan Financial | SHG | South Korea | -38.34% |
| 17 | Woori Finance | WF | South Korea | -46.66% |
| 18 | Mitsubishi UFJ Financial | MTU | Japan | -25.61% |
| 19 | Mizuho Financial | MFG | Japan | -30.42% |
| 20 | ICICI Bank | IBN | India | -55.37% |
| 21 | HDFC Bank | HDB | India | -34.90% |
| 22 | National Bank of Greece | NBG | Greece | -37.34% |
| 23 | Bancolombia S.A. | CIB | Colombia | -14.62% |
| 24 | Banco de Chile | BCH | Chile | -17.48% |
| 25 | Banco Santander Chile | SAN | Chile | -23.75% |
| 26 | Corpbanca | BCA | Chile | -30.88% |
| 27 | Banco Bradesco | BBD | Brazil | -17.03% |
| 28 | Banco Itau | ITU | Brazil | -16.59% |
| 29 | Unibanco | UBB | Brazil | -25.39% |
| 30 | Westpac Banking | WBK | Australia | -30.66% |
| 31 | National Australia Bank | NABZY | Australia | -37.08% |
| 32 | Australia and New Zealand Group | ANZBY | Australia | -46.83% |
| 33 | Banco Macro | BMA | Argentina | -37.24% |
| 34 | BBVA Banco Frances | BFR | Argentina | -42.40% |
| 35 | BNP Paribas | BNPQY | France | -23.19% |
| 36 | Societe Generale | SCGLY | France | -46.84% |
| 37 | DBS | DBSDY | Singapore | -20.13% |
| 38 | United Overseas Bank | UOVEY | Singapore | -15.65% |
| 39 | Erste Group Bank | EBKDY | Austria | -28.21% |
| 40 | Hang Seng Bank | HSNGY | Hong Kong | -3.85% |
| 41 | Swedbank | SWDBY | Sweden | -50.53% |
| 42 | Danske Bank | DNSKY | Denmark | -36.53% |
| 43 | First Bancorp | FBP | Puerto Rico | -9.31% |
Note: Please note that the data used for calculation is thought to be accurate but not guaranteed. Do your own research before making any investment decisions.
Analysis:
- Out of the five British banks, HBOOY is the worst loser since its main business is in mortgage. Surprising to see HSBC down only about 21%.
- The Irish economy has cooled for many months now. So both IRE and AIB are down over 50%.
- Brazil,Singapore bank stocks have held up well.
- France’s SCGLY was cut almost in half because of the losses made by a rogue trader.
- Only two stocks are down in the single digit range.
- Even South Korean and Australian banks are not immune to this global slowdown. The decoupling theory does not seem to be true anymore.
The above study has confirmed my thoughts that the British banks are worst hit among the European banks. Some of the emerging market banks seem to provide shelter for investors fleeing financials in developed markets. Overall the above list can be used as a starting point to dig into some of these beaten up stocks. Or this list can be used to track these bank stocks.
