Earnings Preview: Guess?

Guess? (GES) is expected to report Q2 earnings after market close Wednesday Sept. 3, with a conference call scheduled for 4:30 pm ET.

Guidance

Analysts are looking for a profit of 49c on revenue of $460.9M. The consensus range is 48c to 50c for EPS, and revenue of $455M to $470.19M, according to First Call. In June, Guess? forecast Q2 EPS 47c to 49c on revenue of $445M to $465M and guided FY09 EPS $2.40 to $2.49 vs. First Call consensus of $2.49 and FY09 revenue $2.03B to $2.08B vs. First Call consensus of $2.09B.

Analyst Views

On September 2, Lazard analyst Todd Slater initiated coverage on the retailer with a Buy rating, on his belief that the company will report positive Q2 results. Slater believes Guess? may report same-store sales growth 8% to 10% above the industry average, adding that revenue could grow over the next five years by $1B from Europe and Asia and that the stock's current valuation does not reflect the long-term opportunity for retail expansion internationally.

Despite mixed weather trends in May and July, Wedbush Morgan believes solid June selling trends and disciplined inventory control led to solid Q2 earnings results. Additionally, the firm says stimulus rebates likely drove better than expected May and June businesses "while a modest pullback in oil prices proved ineffective in driving July conversion trends." The company expects potential earnings upside from Guess? and sees positive commentary in terms of guidance.