Crazy 2008

A couple of months ago, it would have been crazy to think that by the start of September, the homebuilders and the dollar would be up on the year, while the energy sector, natural gas and gold would be down on the year. 

But the tape today shows that just that has happened.  The homebuilder ETF (XHB) is currently up 6% year to date, the US Dollar index is up 1.84%, natural gas is down 1.87%, gold is down 4.5%, and the S&P 500 energy sector ETF (XLE) is down 10%.

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Comments

[Michael Fit...:]

What you say is true, and yes it has been crazy. That said, the outlook for oil is extremely bullish. Demand destruction in the US is being snapped up by China, India, Russia, and the Middle East. Despite all the campaign rhetoric and Larry Kudlow's "drill drill drill" mantra, the fact remains the US has a DAILY shortfall of around 15 million barrels of oil which must be imported. No amount of domestic drilling will make up for this shortfall. Further, despite Boone Pickens' efforts (and, I might add, very few other high-profile folks...), the US still has no strategic, comprehensive, long-term energy plan:
thefitzman.blogspot.co...
You would think an S&P500 that has gone no-where in the last 8 years, a US dollar that has gone somewhere (down 40%), and inflation that is the hottest since the 1970's would have gotten some decent energy legislation out of Congress and the "pro-business" Republicans. It has not. This is probably the best opportunity people will have to pick up energy and energy service related stocks before the final peak-oil push upward based on a future where worldwide oil supply will simply not keep pace with worldwide oil demand. Gold will tag along with oil for the ride.

2008 Sep 02 01:43 PM

[GMiki1:]

Today wasn't just crazy, it was demented with money pouring into the market (the DOW), then draining out. Oil down despite the fact that 14 refiners are shut down in the Gulf and a lot of the oil business may take weeks to restart. Not to mention that gasoline stocks are low. Funny crazy, and not in a good way. Damage losses in the area are in the many billions and more hurricanes are stacked up and headed our way.

And all that is the least of it. The financial fundamentals haven't changed. Go, resources. Go, commodities. Go, gold.

2008 Sep 02 03:41 PM

[NOWHEREMAN:]

If you are going to list so many tracks on your graphs, it would help to use more distinctive colors or add dashes and dots to the mix. Otherwise, what is shown is just a representation of the facts as they currently are.

The Huricanes will have economic impacts, initially none will be good. Damages will be in the 10's of Billions in an already weak economy, hence crude's ongoing decline(I am including guesstimates for Hanna,Ike and Josephine).

As the world's biggest user, this will cause more demand destruction and huge property/casualty loses.

BTW, The sabre rattling is escalating as Russia states it will protect its people wherever they are, and NATO is preparing to escalate its presence in the Baltics which have large Russian minority populations.
The Dollar's War Premium has returned. (Financial Times)

2008 Sep 03 11:10 AM

[NOWHEREMAN:]

TBoone's CNG cars will destroy the Corn Ethanol Industry.

2008 Sep 03 11:12 AM